Actual Choice Research Articles

Ordered Generalized Extreme Value Model as a Tool for Demand Modelling of Discretionary Trips

Although the four-step model is the most common method in transportation demand modelling, it is exposed to a considerable criticism in terms of representing the actual choice behaviours of travellers. For example, the four steps are presented in a fixed sequence and independently from each other. Such assumption may be correct in case of obligatory trips (e.g. work trips) where travellers’ behaviour has usually no effect on trip generation or trip distribution stages. However, in discretionary trips, they may simultaneously decide on various trip dimensions. This paper tries to overcome the limitations of traditional four-step model associated with discretionary trips by using a joint discrete choice modelling approach that represents destination, departure time and travel mode choices under a unified framework. The proposed model to be used is the Ordered Generalized Extreme Value model where potential spatial correlation among discretionary destinations can be considered as well. The research methodology has been tested by using shopping and entertainment trips data of Eskisehir city in Turkey. The proposed framework seemed to be more effective and offered an accurate alternative to the first three stages of the traditional four-step model in a setting with a limited number of discretionary destinations.

Framed to fit? Challenging the domestic abuse ‘story’ in child protection

The current framing of domestic violence generates profound problems for those concerned with supporting change for all involved. In particular, the stress on the ‘equal vulnerability’ of all women to domestic abuse, irrespective of economic or social circumstances, is out of line with a developing evidence base and deprives policymakers and practitioners of the conceptual tools that are needed to situate actual identities, choices and challenges with differing implications for women as well as men. In this article, we note the relative lack of attention in the UK to the work of international researchers on how gendered inequalities intersect with those arising from a range of others, crucially, class and ‘race’. This body of work also draws attention to the importance of understanding the impact of state interventions on marginalised communities, an area also neglected in the UK.

The Multiple Food Test: Development and validation of a new tool to measure food choice and applied nutrition knowledge

Assessing individual food choices within health and nutrition related research is challenging and there is a strong need for valid and reliable instruments. In this paper, we introduce the Multiple Food Test as a new tool for measuring food choices and applied nutrition knowledge. The Multiple Food Test has the format of an image selection task. Part one of the Multiple Food Test consists of 18 trials in which participants are presented with sets of four food items and asked to choose one item they would prefer to consume (choice scale). In part two, participants saw the same 18 trials and were asked to indicate which of the items presented they perceived as being the healthiest (applied knowledge scale). Results across three studies (total N = 666) indicate that both subscales of the Multiple Food Test have good psychometric properties. Healthier choices were significantly associated with implicit theories of health, healthy eating frequency and importance (Study 1), a stronger health versus taste motive (Study 1 and 2), self-control, and habitual fruit and vegetable intake (Study 2). In Study 3, choices in the Multiple Food Test positively predicted actual food choices. The applied knowledge scale showed agreement with an existing nutrition knowledge scale, and higher scores were associated with higher levels of self-control (Study 2). The Multiple Food Test presents new opportunities to evaluate underlying variables and interventions that influence food choice or eating behavior.

Credibility, Reputation and De-Risking in Global Banking: Evidence from a Theoretical Model

AbstractThis paper investigates the de-risking phenomenon from the perspective of an international bank’s decision to de-risk in a foreign market, where there is asymmetric information and costly monitoring. We consider three adverse shocks to a foreign affiliate’s (i) perceived credibility, (ii) costs of monitoring, and (iii) reputation, as reflected in a loss of franchise value. We show that the headquarters’ incentives to reduce international exposures are prompted by increasing funding and monitoring costs and by falling franchise values. Distortions arise because adverse credibility shocks make funding rates less responsive to actual risk choices, and impairments in the bank’s reputation negatively affect franchise values. All else equal, this reduces the bank’s incentives to retain and monitor the foreign affiliate, and risks increase. The risk effects are most pronounced in the case of credibility shocks, and incentives to reduce international exposures are strongest when reputational risks affect headquarters.

Sales Education for Engineering Students: What Drives Interest and Choice?

Universities increasingly make their sales curriculum available for groups other than dedicated sales students. This study investigates engineering students’ drivers that predict interest in sales certification, as well as drivers that predict actual choice for a sales curriculum. We focus on engineering students ( n = 204) and contrast our findings with business students ( n = 179). Based on social cognitive theory, we investigate how personality (Big Five personality factors and Trait Competitiveness), ability (ACT, GPA, and Academic Self-Efficacy), and social factors (role models, and perception of salespersons) affect interest and choice. Our results indicate that although the regression models explain a reasonable amount of variance, models that work for business students do not work equally well for engineering students. Also, our analysis reveals that factors that explain interest do not explain actual choice, and vice versa. In addition, we uncover subtle gender difference when it comes to actual choice for a sales curriculum. Finally, the benefits that engineering students perceive of sales certification differ primarily based on whether students are taking sales classes, and not on degree sought.

A Route Choice Model for Capturing Driver Preferences When Driving Electric and Conventional Vehicles

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) play an important role in the needed transition away from fossil fuels and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs). Although transport planning models and routing problem solutions exist for BEVs, the assumption that BEV drivers search for the shortest path while constraining energy consumption does not have any empirical basis. This study presents a study of actual route choice behavior of drivers from 107 Danish households participating in a large-scale experiment with BEVs and at the same time driving their ICEVs. GPS traces from 8968 BEV and 6678 ICEV routes were map matched to a detailed road network to construct observed routes, and a route choice model was specified and estimated to capture behavioral differences related to the vehicle type. The results reveal that drivers had a higher sensitivity to travel time and trip length when driving BEVs, and to route directness after receiving the BEV, regardless of vehicle type. The results suggest the need to revise the assumptions of transport planning models and routing problems for BEVs in order not to fail to predict what drivers will do by ignoring differences and similarities related to vehicle type.

Computing Topological Invariants of Triangular Chandelier Lattice

A numerical parameter mathematically derived from the graph structure is a topological index. The topological index is the first actual choice in QSAR research and these indices are used to build the correlation model between the chemical structures of various chemicals compounds. Here, we investigate some old degree-based topological indices like Randic index, sum connectivity index, <i>ABC</i> index, <i>GA</i> index, 1^st and 2^nd Zagreb indices, modified second Zagreb index, redefined version of 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd Zagreb indices, hyper and augmented Zagreb indices, forgotten index and symmetric division degree index, and some new degree-based indices like <i>SK</i> index, <i>SK</i>₁ index, <i>SK</i>₂ index, and <i>AG</i>₁ index of triangular chandelier-lattice (TCL). The results are generalized by using edge partition and closed formulas for topological indices of triangular chandelier-lattice are analysed.

Effect of an intercalated research degree on general practice careers: a matched cohort study.

INTRODUCTION Intercalated degrees are one of the most focused undergraduate research training activities offered to medical students worldwide. The effect of intercalating on actual career choices has not been previously investigated. AIM To examine the effect of obtaining an intercalated research degree on choosing general practice as a career. METHODS This was a retrospective, matched cohort study of intercalating students at the University of Otago, New Zealand (1995-2008). Medical students who completed the intercalated Bachelor of Medical Sciences with Honours, BMedSc(Hons), degree were retrospectively identified. Gender- and graduation year-matched controls were identified from a publicly available graduate database in a 1:1 ratio. MEDLINE® and Google Scholar-indexed publications resulting from BMedSc(Hons) projects were determined using standardised search criteria. Speciality choice was obtained from online lists of registered doctors. RESULTS Over the 14-year period, 99 (3.9%) students completed an intercalated degree with a publication rate of 36.4%. Of these, 42 (42.4%) were female and over two-thirds (68.7%) of projects were laboratory-based. The median follow-up period after graduation was 14 years (range 7.7-21.7 years). The congruence between students' BMedSc(Hons) research subject area and clinical speciality was 9.1%. Sixteen (16.2%) intercalating students chose general practice as a career, whereas 83 (83.8%) chose 19 different hospital-based specialties. Compared to controls, students who completed an intercalated degree were significantly less likely to pursue a career in general practice (odds ratio 0.37; 95% confidence interval=0.18 - 0.77; P=0.007). DISCUSSION The present study findings suggest that completing an intercalated degree is associated with lower odds of pursuing a career in general practice. Future research should explore reasons for this observation to help develop strategies to promote primary care and general practice careers among medical graduates, including those interested in research careers.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Competition Between Subways and Taxis Based on Multi-Source Data

Excessive competition between taxis and subways has eroded the advantages of public transit systems such as worsening road traffic congestion and environment. This study aims to improve the appeal of subways by a comprehensive understating of competition between taxis and subways. We investigate competitive relationship between these two transportation modes by using empirical multi-source data. First, non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm is used to discover the spatiotemporal travel patterns of subway-competing taxi users (SCTUs). Second, we propose a new index to quantify the competitiveness of subways based on the actual mode choices results. Then, we reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of competitiveness from perspective of subway network. Taking Beijing, China, for a case study, we extract a week’s worth of GPS records on taxi trajectory and smartcard data of subways. Subway-competing taxi trips (SCTTs) account for the largest proportion of the total taxi trips. As a result, three basic patterns are found in SCTTs. Subway station pairs with high and less competition are divided according to competitiveness index. Among low competition station pairs, three spatial structures are observed, including low-competition collinearity corridors, radial communities, and links between paralleled subway lines. Combining the distribution results of travel pattern and competitiveness degree, short-term and long-term planning suggestions are recommended respectively for station pairs with high demand but low competitiveness and those with low demand and low competitiveness. These findings provide useful insights into promoting more effective and sensitive policies to balance the competition and attract more taxi passengers to the subway system.

FAIR Convergence Matrix: Optimizing the Reuse of Existing FAIR-Related Resources

The FAIR principles articulate the behaviors expected from digital artifacts that are Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable by machines and by people. Although by now widely accepted, the FAIR Principles by design do not explicitly consider actual implementation choices enabling FAIR behaviors. As different communities have their own, often well-established implementation preferences and priorities for data reuse, coordinating a broadly accepted, widely used FAIR implementation approach remains a global challenge. In an effort to accelerate broad community convergence on FAIR implementation options, the GO FAIR community has launched the development of the FAIR Convergence Matrix. The Matrix is a platform that compiles for any community of practice, an inventory of their self-declared FAIR implementation choices and challenges. The Convergence Matrix is itself a FAIR resource, openly available, and encourages voluntary participation by any self-identified community of practice (not only the GO FAIR Implementation Networks). Based on patterns of use and reuse of existing resources, the Convergence Matrix supports the transparent derivation of strategies that optimally coordinate convergence on standards and technologies in the emerging Internet of FAIR Data and Services.

Nudging the poor and the rich – A field study on the distributional effects of green electricity defaults

Choice defaults are an increasingly popular public policy tool. Yet there is little knowledge of the distributional consequences of such nudges for different groups in society. We report results from an elicitation study in the residential electricity market in Switzerland in which we contrast consumers' actual contract choices under an existing default regime with the same consumers' active choices in a survey presenting the same choice-set without any default. We find that the default is successful at curbing greenhouse gas emissions, but it leads poorer households to pay more for their electricity consumption than they would want to, while leaving a significant willingness to pay for green electricity by richer households untapped.

Explaining variability in tourist preferences: A Bayesian model well suited to small samples

Abstract Discrete choice experiments are becoming more popular in the tourism and travel literature. While Bayesian methods to analyze discrete choice experiment data have been used in other disciplines, they have not been used in the tourism literature. In this article, we develop a Bayesian Mixed Logit Model in which we use a little known prior distribution developed by Lewandowski, Kurowicka, and Joe (LKJ) and half Cauchy distributions as an alternative to the more traditionally used inverse Wishart distribution as a prior scheme for the covariance matrix of random parameters in mixed logit estimation. Using multiple simulated data sets, we show that use of the LKJ prior scheme improves the estimation of coefficients, especially for small data sets. Finally, we test the model with an actual small discrete choice data set examining tourist preferences for reducing glacier recession, and discuss the implications of the model for research and policy.

Can healthcare choice be predicted using stated preference data?

Lack of evidence about the external validity of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs)-sourced preferences inhibits greater use of DCEs in healthcare decision-making. This study examines the external validity of such preferences, unravels its determinants, and provides evidence of whether healthcare choice is predictable. We focused on influenza vaccination and used a six-step approach: i) literature study, ii) expert interviews, iii) focus groups, iv) survey including a DCE, v) field data, and vi) in-depth interviews with respondents who showed discordance between stated choices and actual healthcare utilization. Respondents without missing values in the survey and the actual healthcare utilization (377/499 = 76%) were included in the analyses. Random-utility-maximization and random-regret-minimization models were used to analyze the DCE data, whereas the in-depth interviews combined five scientific theories to explain discordance. When models took into account both scale and preference heterogeneity, real-world choices to opt for influenza vaccination were correctly predicted by DCE at an aggregate level, and 91% of choices were correctly predicted at an individual level. There was 13% (49/377) discordance between stated choices and actual healthcare utilization. In-depth interviews showed that several dimensions played a role in clarifying this discordance: attitude, social support, action of planning, barriers, and intention. Evidence was found that our DCE yields accurate actual healthcare choice predictions if at least scale and preference heterogeneity are taken into account. Analysis of discordant subjects showed that we can even do better. The DCE measures an important part of preferences by focusing on attribute tradeoffs that people make in their decision to participate in a healthcare intervention. Inhibitors may be among these attributes, but it is more likely that inhibitors have to do with exogenous factors like goals, religion, and social norms. Con-ducting upfront work on constraints/inhibitors of the focal behavior, not just what promotes the behavior, might further improve predictive ability.

Handling resolvable uncertainty from incomplete scenarios in future doctors' job choice – Probabilities vs discrete choices

Health economists often use discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to predict behavior, as actual market data is often unavailable. Manski (1990) argues that due to the incompleteness of the hypothetical scenarios used in DCEs, substantial uncertainty surrounds stated choice. Uncertainty can be decomposed into “resolvable” and “unresolvable”; the former is expected to become resolved in actual choice, as individuals collect further information. To enable its identification, Manski suggests eliciting subjective choice probabilities (ECPs) rather than discrete choices. We introduce the ECP approach in health economics and explore its convergent validity. The context is future physicians’ stated choices of job in rural general practice in Denmark. Our results are mixed, but show remarkable similarities in forecasting abilities, despite the ECP models being less econometrically demanding and relying on different preference distributional assumptions.

From Major Preferences to Major Choices: Gender and Logics of Major Choice

Research shows that college students choose majors for a variety of reasons. Some students are motivated by potential economic returns, others want to take engaging classes, and others still would like opportunities to help people in their jobs. But how do these preferences map onto students’ actual major choices? This question is particularly intriguing in light of gender differences in fields of study, as men and women may take divergent pathways in pursuit of the same outcome. Using data from the Pathways through College Study (N = 2,639), I show that men and women choose very different majors even when they cite the same major preferences—what I call gendered logics of major choice. In addition, I use earnings data from the American Community Survey to assess how these gendered logics of major choice may be associated with broader patterns of earnings inequality. I find that among men and women who have the same major preferences, men’s major choices are tied to significantly higher prospective earnings than women’s major choices. This finding demonstrates that the ways men and women translate their preferences into majors are unequal from an earnings perspective. Implications for research on higher education and gender are discussed.

Utility of an image fusion system for 3D preoperative planning and fluoroscopy in the osteosynthesis of distal radius fractures

BackgroundRecently, computerized virtual surgery planning has been increasingly applied in various orthopedic procedures. In this study, we developed an image fusion system for 3D preoperative planning and fluoroscopy for the osteosynthesis. To assess the utility of image fusion system, we evaluated the reproducibility of preoperative planning in the osteosynthesis of distal radius fractures with using the image fusion system, and compared with the reproducibility of the patients without using the image fusion system.MethodsForty-two wrists of 42 distal radius fracture patients who underwent osteosynthesis using volar locking plates were evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups. Image fusion group utilized three-dimensional (3D) preoperative planning and image fusion system. Control group utilized only 3D preoperative planning. In both groups, 3D preoperative planning was performed in order to determine reduction, placement, and choice of implants. In the image fusion group, the outline of planned image was displayed on a monitor overlapping with fluoroscopy images during surgery. Reductions were evaluated by volar tilt and radial inclination of 3D images. Plate positions were evaluated with distance to joint surface, plate center axis position, and inclination relative to the radius axis. Screw choices were recorded for the plan and actual choices for each screw hole. Differences in the parameters between pre- and postoperative images were evaluated. Differences in reduction shape, plate positions, and screw choices were compared between groups.ResultsThe differences in the distance from plate to joint surface were significantly smaller in the image fusion group compared to the control group (P < 0.01). The differences in the distal screw choices were significantly smaller in the image fusion group compared to the control group (P < 0.01).ConclusionsThe image fusion system was useful to reproduce the planned plate position and distal screw choices in the osteosynthesis of distal radius fractures.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03764501

Editor's choice: Optimizing healthy food preferences by serious gaming

Objective: Serious gaming is an upcoming and promising tool in prevention and health promotion. The aim of this experimental study was to examine whether health-related serious gaming could optimize food-related outcomes and physical activity.Design: Eighty-one healthy participants (80% female) were randomly allocated to an experimental condition, in which participants played serious games based on transferring information, priming and evaluative conditioning, for half an hour, or a control condition, in which participants played non-health-related computer games.Main outcome measures: The primary study outcome was self-reported food preference and self-reported food choice, assessed by the Food Choice Task with food pairs differing in healthiness, or in both healthiness and attractiveness. Secondary outcomes were actual food choice and physical activity.Results: A significantly healthier food preference for pairs differing in healthiness was found on the Food Choice Task in the experimental compared to the control condition. No significant differences were found on the other outcomes.Conclusions: This study provides preliminary support for the effects of serious gaming based on optimizing food preferences. More research is needed to confirm the present findings and to further elucidate and optimize the effects of serious gaming on health behaviours.

The community of advantage

This paper gives an overview of my recently published book, The Community of Advantage: A Behavioural Economist’s Defence of the Market. I explain that my stance as author is that of a behavioural economist and an economic liberal. The book is an attempt to counter the widespread belief that the findings of behavioural economics justify regulatory interventions in the economy that would previously have been thought unacceptably paternalistic. I argue that competitive markets are desirable, not as an efficient means for satisfying the given preferences of assumedly rational individuals, but as an institutional structure that provides opportunities for whatever voluntary transactions people might want to make.

236P - Clinical decision making and multidisciplinary team meetings (MDMs) in early breast cancer. Is the agreement between planned and applied therapeutic program?

BackgroundCancer multidisciplinary team meetings (MDMs) are commonly acknowledged as a good clinical practice. One of the roles of MDMs is to identify the best diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for patients (pts) with new diagnosis of early breast cancer (EBC). In this setting, the purpose of the study was to define whether there was agreement between the planned program (i.e. MDMs-based decision) and that actually applied (i.e. actual therapeutic choice, ATC). In addition, the study explored factors associated with discordance. MethodsWe conducted a monocentric retrospective study of a consecutive series of 291 pts with new diagnosis of EBC, discussed at MDMs at the University Hospital of Udine (Italy), from January 2017 to June 2018. ResultsMedian age was 62 years (range 27-88 years). Among invasive EBC patients, the most frequent phenotype was luminal-A (38%), followed by luminal-B (33%), HER2-positive (12%) and triple negative (5%). Thirty-four pts (12%) had diagnosis of in situ carcinoma (DCIS). Median time from MDMs discussion to first oncological examination was two weeks. Rate of discordance between MDMs-based decision and final choice, during face to face consultation with the oncologist, was 15.8% (46/291). Among cases with discordance, 19 pts (41.3%) had age > 70 years; 8 pts (17%) had a diagnosis of DCIS, 13 pts (28%) luminal-B carcinoma, 12 pts (26%) luminal-A, 9 pts (20%) HER2-positive and 4 pts (9%) triple negative EBC. The most frequent reason for changing the MDMs-based program was clinical decision by the oncologist at the first evaluation (87%). Follow-up was preferred to the chemotherapy proposed within the MDMs by 15% of pts, and to the endocrine therapy in 39% cases (among these, 44.5% had diagnosis of DCIS). In our study 16/46 pts (35%) had a therapeutic change from chemotherapy to endocrine therapy: among these pts, 7/16 had a luminal-B and 6/16 had a HER2-positive disease. Further analysis aiming at evaluating variables which could predict discordance between MDMs proposal and face to face oncological consultation are ongoing. ConclusionsThe results of our study could be useful for enhance the role of MTD and identify unmet needs in decision making process in EBC. Legal entity responsible for the studyThe authors. FundingHas not received any funding. DisclosureAll authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Practice choices of clinical associates: Policy realisation or practical reality?

The Bachelor of Clinical Medical Practice (BCMP) programme was introduced in South Africa as a strategy to fill human resource gaps in both the public sector and rural communities. A previous study explored the practice intentions of BCMP students from one university prior to graduation. To determine whether the actual practice choices of these BCMP graduates reflect their practice intentions. A cross-sectional analytical study invited all graduates from the four cohorts of BCMP graduates (N=250) who graduated during the period 2011 - 2014 to complete an online survey. Data were exported and analysed using Stata 13. Chi-square tests of independence were done to explore associations in the data. More than 80% of participants were currently employed in the public sector, with over 50% in rural settings. Factors such as where clinical associates spent most of their lives (i.e. where they were born and raised) and bursary obligations influenced their current practice choices. There was no association between gender and rural practice choice. Intention to emigrate was not associated with origin, gender or race. Almost 90% of participants indicated an interest in furthering their studies; 46% of these intended a change in career, with 65% interested in studying medicine. The practice choices of the first four cohorts of this degree were similar to their intended practice choices. Although the policy intentions of public sector employment and rural practice have been met, it is not clear what will happen once bursary obligations are fulfilled. The reasons for increased intentions to change career need further research, as a change of career would countermand gains achieved in implementing the policy.