To investigate the correlation between oxidative stress in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) of children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) and the clinical characteristics of severe MPP (SMPP) and refractory MPP (RMPP). Clinical and BALF-related data were collected from 83 patients with MPP, of which 29 had SMPP and 54 had general MPP (GMPP); 37 patients were in the RMPP group and 46 in the non-RMPP group. The levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) and advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP) as well as the activity levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-PX) in BALF were detected. Logistic regression analyses were performed on MDA, AOPP, SOD, GSH-PX, gender, heat peak, neutrophil percentage, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, d-dimer, lung consolidation, sputum embolus, and pleural effusion. The levels of MDA and AOPP in the BALF of the MPP group were significantly higher than those in the control group (p < .05), whereas SOD and GSH-PX levels were lower than those in the control group (p < .05). The BALF AOPP levels in the RMPP group were higher than those in the non-RMPP group, and the SOD and GSH-PX levels in the BALF were lower than those in the non-RMPP group; the difference was statistically significant (p < .05). The levels of MDA and AOPP in the BALF of children in the SMPP group were higher than those in the GMPP group, and the levels of SOD and GSH-PX were lower than those in the GMPP group, with statistically significant differences (p < .05). The C-index of the logistic regression model was 0.960 (95% confidence interval 0.958-0.963), which indicates that the model has good predictive ability. Advanced oxidation protein products may be a marker for predicting the conditions of SMPP and RMPP, and the prediction model can assess the risk of progression in children to RMPP, which is conducive to clinical diagnosis and treatment.