Accurate Threat Assessment Research Articles

A novel threat assessment method for maritime defense integrating improved IT2FBWM, prospect theory and VIKOR under hybrid fuzzy environment

The weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms have posed a significant threat to maritime civilian and military installations. For effective defense deployment, threat assessment has become a critical part of maritime defense decision-making. However, due to the uncertainty of threat information and the ignorance of decision-makers’ psychological behaviors, there are great challenges in obtaining a reliable and accurate threat assessment result to assist in maritime defense decision-making. To this end, this paper proposes an integrated threat assessment method for maritime defense against UAV swarms based on improved interval type-2 fuzzy best-worst method (IT2FBWM), prospect theory and VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje, in Serbian). Firstly, the improved IT2FBWM is designed by introducing interval type-2 fuzzy set (IT2FS) and entropy-based information to obtain attribute weights with high reliability. Then, the hybrid fuzzy scheme covering IT2FS and interval number is constructed to express the uncertainty of different types of threat information. Next, VIKOR is extended to hybrid fuzzy environment and combined with prospect theory to consider the influence of psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Finally, the improved IT2FBWM and extended VIKOR are integrated to determine the threat ranking of targets and the priority defense targets. A case study of maritime threat assessment is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. Moreover, sensitivity and comparative experiments were conducted, and the results indicate that the proposed method not only obtain the reliable threat assessment result but also outperforms the other methods in terms of attribute weight determination, decision preference consideration and decision mechanism.

Research on threat assessment problems of island air defence system based on the leader-follower model

Abstract To study the command and control system in an island air defence system under the background of systemic conflict, this paper proposes a new modelling method based on the opinion dynamics leader-follower model to simulate the target threat assessment process in the command and control activities. Through example simulation, it is obtained that in a centralised command and control system, a command post (CP)-led model can provide the most accurate threat assessment results, but it consumes a longer time. While in a distributed command and control system, a model without a leader can provide a target threat value accurately and quickly. The consistency of simulation results and actual situation indicates that, at present, under a high degree of battlefield information sharing, it is necessary to down-pass the authority of the CP to improve operational efficiency. In summary, the proposed model can comprehensively reflect the process that the island air defence system assesses the threat of an attacking target, and it gives a new idea for investigating the command and control procedure and system of the island air defence system.

Dynamic assessment method of air target threat based on improved GIFSS

As the air combat environment becomes more complicated and changeable, accurate threat assessment of air target has a significant impact on air defense operations. This paper proposes an improved generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set (GIFSS) method for dynamic assessment of air target threat. Firstly, the threat assessment index is reasonably determined by analyzing the typical characteristics of air targets. Secondly, after the GIFSS at different time is obtained, the index weight is determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy set entropy and the relative entropy theory. Then, the inverse Poisson distribution method is used to determine the weight of time series, and then the time-weighted GIFSS is obtained. Finally, threat assessment of five air targets is carried out by using the improved GIFSS (I-GIFSS) and comparison methods. The validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified by calculation and comparison.

Przyjmowanie perspektywy w rzeczywistości wirtualnej dla personelu wojskowego: przegląd podejść do wirtualnego treningu społecznego

In this article, we have given an overview of exemplary empirical research on both the efficacy of perspective taking and the positive aspects of employment of virtual reality technologies in the context of military personnel training. The inclusion of awareness of mental states and subjective experiences expressed in accurately designed virtual scenarios can prepare soldiers for more effective and decisive operations prior to deployment on foreign soil, where they will have to come to terms with difficult decisions connected with cultural differences and plurality. First, we would like to present notions about perspective taking and what role VR maintains in relation to the development of aspects of cognition. Next, we approach the proposed ensemble of articles that state the extent of VR-PT efficacy: (1) the relevance of developing perspective taking in the military, (2) the effectiveness of VR in training. Although we did not find examples of the military perspective taking training in specifically immersive virtual environments, we do want to posit an idea that this kind of regime could bring a plethora of positive effects – e.g. accurate threat assessment in cross-cultural environments, positive nonverbal behaviour, increased outgroup helping behaviour, reduced/less dependency on stereotyping and possibly reduced conflict-inducing intergroup differences.

A Threat Assessment Method for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on Bayesian Networks under the Condition of Small Data Sets

The autonomous decision-making of a UAV is based on rapid and accurate threat assessment of the target. Accordingly, modeling of threat assessment under the condition of a small data set is studied in this paper. First, the operational scenario of a manned/unmanned aerial vehicle is constructed, and feature selection and data preprocessing are performed. Second, to obtain the structure, a modeling method for threat assessment is proposed based on an improved BIC score. Finally, the obtained model is applied to compute the threat probability using the junction tree algorithm. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper is an available method for threat assessment under the condition of small data sets.

Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.Tamaño de Extensión Geográfica y Evaluación de Riesgo de Extinción en Especies NómadasResumenEl tamaño de extensión geográfica se conceptualiza frecuentemente como un atributo fijo de las especies y se trata como tal para los propósitos de cuantificación de riesgo de extinción; se asume que las especies que ocupan extensiones geográficas más pequeñas tienen un riesgo de extinción más alto, cuando todo lo demás es igual. Sin embargo, muchas especies son móviles y sus movimientos varían desde migraciones de ida y vuelta relativamente predecibles hasta movimientos irregulares complejos, como los que muestran las especies nómadas. Estos movimientos pueden llevar a expansiones sustanciales temporales y a una reducción de las extensiones geográficas, todo esto con el potencial de llegar a niveles que pueden presentar un riesgo de extinción. Al enlazar los datos de presencia con las condiciones ambientales al momento de la observación de las especies nómadas pudimos modelar las distribuciones dinámicas de 43 especies de aves de zonas áridas a lo largo de la isla de Australia durante cada mes a lo largo de once años y calculamos el tamaño de extensión mínima y el alcance de las fluctuaciones en el tamaño de extensión geográfica a partir de estos modelos. Hubo una enorme variabilidad en la distribución espacial pronosticada a lo largo del tiempo: diez especies variaron en el tamaño de extensión geográfica por más de una orden de magnitud y dos especies variaron por más de dos órdenes de magnitud. Durante situaciones de condiciones ambientales pobres, varias especies que actualmente no se encuentran clasificadas como amenazadas a nivel global redujeron sus extensiones a áreas muy pequeñas, esto a pesar de su gran tamaño de extensión geográfica normal. Este hallazgo genera preguntas sobre lo idóneo de las evaluaciones convencionales del riesgo de extinción con base en el tamaño estático de extensión geográfica (p. ej.: la Lista Roja de la UICN). Se pronostica que el cambio climático afectará los patrones de las fluctuaciones de recursos en casi todo el hemisferio sur, donde el nomadismo es la forma dominante de movimiento de animales, así que es crítico que comencemos a entender las consecuencias de esto para tener una evaluación certera del riesgo de extinción de especies nómadas. Nuestra estrategia proporciona una herramienta para descubrir las dinámicas espaciales de especies con movilidad alta y puede usarse para liberar información valiosa para una mejor evaluación de riesgo de extinción y planeación de la conservación.

Returning Jihadist Foreign Fighters

Since the first reports detailing the presence of foreigner participating in the Syrian civil war in September 2011, the number of foreign fighters has increased exponentially. Especially European policymakers are worried about the potential threat posed by the presence of hundreds of European foreign fighters in Syria and the possibility that some of them could return to stage an attack. This article examines the challenges European policymakers face when addressing the foreign fighter phenomenon in general, and that of returnees in particular. The article first discusses the complexity of the (potential) threat posed by those that return from the fight in Syria. Next, it outlines the need for and challenge of providing an accurate threat assessment. The authors then present a number of recent ideas and proposals on how to deal with the phenomenon of foreign fighters in Europe. These proposals highlight the need for a mixed or comprehensive approach, which is sensible given the complexity as well as the multidimensional and international nature of the threat. However, it also poses an additional challenge to policymakers pertaining to the implementation of such an approach. This governance challenge is discussed by investigating the possible roles of various actors when dealing with returnees. Based on these findings, the concluding part presents a number of policy recommendations.

Estimating population size in the subdesert mesite ( Monias benschi): new methods and implications for conservation

The subdesert mesite, a terrestrial non-passerine bird endemic to the Mikea Forest of southwest Madagascar, is currently classified as globally threatened (category: Vulnerable). However, accurate assessment of threat in accordance with the IUCN Red List criteria (A, B and C) requires data on effective population size, area of habitat occupied and rate of decline, none of which is available for this species. Here we present the first empirical estimates of its population size using five complementary methods, three incorporating data on territory size and two using data gathered during call-playback surveys conducted throughout its entire global range. Estimates vary from 98,000 to 152,000 individuals, with the most reliable possibly being that generated by distance sampling (115,000). This figure is more than an order of magnitude greater than the only published estimate of <10,000 individuals. By analysing data on forest cover change, we estimate the population of the subdesert mesite to have declined by, at most, 10% in three generations. Although the rate of deforestation in 1994–1999 is double that calculated for 1962–1994, it is deemed unlikely that the population will decline by 20% over the next three generations. As such the species fails to meet criterion A. Although the subdesert mesite's range and area of occupancy are small, they are not fragmented and do not comprise fewer than 10 locations. Consequently, this species does not meet criterion B. Further, the species fails to meet criterion C, for which a maximum of 10,000 mature adults is required. According to IUCN (2000 Red List of Threatened Species) this species should therefore be downlisted in status. We discuss why it still warrants conservation attention and suggest the need for modifications to the criteria thresholds in relation to basic information about the ecology and taxonomic distinctness of species.