Accurate Traffic Flow Prediction Research Articles

Deep Learning-Enhanced Hybrid Fruit Fly Optimization for Intelligent Traffic Control in Smart Urban Communities

The rapid urbanization accompanying the evolution into “smart” communities presents numerous challenges, not least of which is the significant increase in road vehicles. This proliferation exacerbates congestion and accident rates, posing major barriers to the successful implementation of innovative technologies such as wireless sensor networks (WSNs), surveillance cameras, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Accurate traffic flow prediction, a crucial component of these technological initiatives, requires a reliable and efficient methodology.This research explores the implementation of an intelligent traffic control system that employs a Transferable Texture Convolutional Neural Network (TTCNN). The design of this system eschews the traditional pooling layer, instead incorporating three convolutional layers and a single energy layer (EL). This configuration facilitates the provision of real-time traffic updates, which can enhance the utility and efficiency of the smart city infrastructure.A model inspired by the hybrid fruit fly (HFFO) optimizes the system's hyperparameters. The application of HFFO to the TTCNN showcases the potential for improved accuracy in traffic flow prediction. Simulation results suggest that the HFFO provides superior organizational boundaries for the TTCNN, enhancing the overall accuracy of the model's predictions. The hybrid forecasting method discussed herein demonstrates its potential to outperform other established techniques.This investigation sheds light on the potential benefits of applying deep learning algorithms and hybrid models in the context of traffic flow prediction and control, contributing to the ongoing development of smart urban communities.

A Hybrid Deep Learning Approach for Real-Time Estimation of Passenger Traffic Flow in Urban Railway Systems

This research introduces a hybrid deep learning approach to perform real-time forecasting of passenger traffic flow for the metro railway system (MRS). By integrating long short-term memory (LSTM) and the graph convolutional network (GCN), a hybrid deep learning neural network named the graph convolutional memory network (GCMN) was constructed and trained for accurate real-time prediction of passenger traffic flow for the MRS. Data collected of the traffic flow in Delhi’s metro rail network system in the period from October 2012 to May 2017 were utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed model. The results indicate that (1) the developed method provides accurate predictions of the traffic flow with an average coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.920, RMSE of 368.364, and MAE of 549.527, and (2) the GCMN model outperforms state-of-the-art methods, including LSTM and the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM). This study contributes to the state of practice in proposing a novel framework that provides reliable estimations of passenger traffic flow. The developed model can also be used as a benchmark for planning and upgrading works of the MRS by metro owners and architects.

An accurate traffic flow prediction using long-short term memory and gated recurrent unit networks

Congestion on roadways is an issue in many cities, especially at peak times, which causes air and noise pollution and cause pressure on citizens. So, the implementation of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs) is a very important part of smart cities. As a result, the importance of making accurate short-term predictions of traffic flow has significantly increased in recent years. However, the current methods for predicting short-term traffic flow are incapable of effectively capturing the complex non-linearity of traffic flow that affects prediction accuracy. To overcome this problem, this study introduces two novel models. The first model uses two long-short term memory (LSTM) units that can extract the traffic flow temporal features followed by four dense layers to perform the traffic flow prediction. The second model uses two gated recurrent unit (GRU) units that can extract the traffic flow temporal features followed by three dense layers to perform the traffic flow prediction. The two proposed models give promising results on performance measurement system (PEMS), traffic and congestions (TRANCOS) dataset that is firstly used as metadata. So, the two models can do this in specific cases and are able to suddenly capture trend changes.

A Survey Paper on Traffic Prediction Using Machine Learning

Abstract: Traffic flow prediction is an essential tool for traffic management, which can assist traffic operators in making informed decisions for traffic control and management. Accurate traffic flow prediction can also help commuters to plan their journeys efficiently and reduce travel time. The use of Support Vector Regression algorithm for traffic flow prediction has shown promising results in various studies, and it can be used to predict traffic flow at different time intervals, such as hourly, daily, weekly, or even yearly. Additionally, the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques can further enhance the accuracy of traffic flow prediction, which can lead to more effective traffic management strategies

Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) and HDFS-Based Realtime Traffic Forecasting System Using CCTV Surveillance

The most crucial component of any smart city traffic management system is traffic flow prediction. It can assist a driver in selecting the most efficient route to their destination. The digitalization of closed-circuit television (CCTV) systems has resulted in more effective and capable surveillance imaging systems for security applications. The number of automobiles on the world’s highways has steadily increased in recent decades. However, road capacity has not developed at the same rate, resulting in significantly increasing congestion. The model learning mechanism cannot be guided or improved by prior domain knowledge of real-world problems. In reality, symmetrical features are common in many real-world research objects. To mitigate this severe situation, the researchers chose adaptive traffic management to make intelligent and efficient use of the current infrastructure. Data grow exponentially and become a complex item that must be managed. Unstructured data are a subset of big data that are difficult to process and have volatile properties. CCTV cameras are used in traffic management to monitor a specific point on the roadway. CCTV generates unstructured data in the form of images and videos. Because of the data’s intricacy, these data are challenging to process. This study proposes using big data analytics to transform real-time unstructured data from CCTV into information that can be shown on a web dashboard. As a Hadoop-based architectural stack that can serve as the ICT backbone for managing unstructured data efficiently, the Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) stores several sorts of data using the Hadoop file storage system, a high-performance integrated virtual environment (HIVE) tables, and non-relational storage. Traditional computer vision algorithms are incapable of processing such massive amounts of visual data collected in real-time. However, the inferiority of traffic data and the quality of unit information are always symmetrical phenomena. As a result, there is a need for big data analytics with machine learning, which entails processing and analyzing vast amounts of visual data, such as photographs or videos, to uncover semantic patterns that may be interpreted. As a result, smart cities require a more accurate traffic flow prediction system. In comparison to other recent methods applied to the dataset, the proposed method achieved the highest accuracy of 98.21%. In this study, we look at the construction of a secure CCTV strategy that predicts traffic from CCTV surveillance using real-time traffic prediction analysis with generative adversarial networks (GAN) and HDFS.

Short-term traffic flow prediction model based on a shared weight gate recurrent unit neural network

Accurate traffic flow prediction is critical for enhancing traffic network operational efficiency. With the continuous expansion of traffic networks, providing reliable and efficient multi-step traffic flow prediction for large-scale traffic networks with a large number of sensors deployed has become a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a multi-step many-to-many traffic prediction model for large-scale traffic networks, called spatio-temporal Shared GRU (STSGRU), which receive inputs from multiple sensors and provides predictions for all sensors simultaneously. First, we model the weekly pattern of traffic flow, using periodicity to explore long-term temporal features and provide smooth traffic flow to reduce the impact of data volatility. Second, different from existing models, we propose a shared weight mechanism to achieve many-to-many prediction without mapping traffic networks to images or graph structures. The proposed model strikes a delicate balance between complexity and accuracy. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method on the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) dataset. The results show that our model achieves similar prediction performance with advanced graph neural networks and has higher flexibility.

Statistical Modeling of Traffic Flow in Commercial Clusters Based on a Street Network

Traffic flow characterizes vitality in commercial clusters, and the accurate prediction of traffic flow based on the street network has significant implications for street planning and vitality regulation in commercial clusters. However, existing studies are limited by certain problems, such as difficulty in obtaining traffic flow data and carrying out technical methods. The purpose of this study is to use urban physical data to study traffic flow so as to quickly and effectively estimate the traffic flow in commercial clusters. This study takes the street networks of 100 commercial clusters in China as the research objects and classifies them into three forms according to the theory of “A city is not a tree”. Taking typical commercial clusters in these three forms as the research unit, space syntax was used to study five metrics of street network connectivity, and integration (Dn) was selected as a proxy variable for street network connectivity. The results show that the traffic flow in the three forms of commercial clusters can be predicted using the multiple regression models established based on the three metrics of integration, the traffic level, and the operation cycle. This study establishes the connection between the street network form and the traffic flow, which enables the possibility of obtaining the traffic flow of commercial clusters quickly and effectively. For areas with poorly structured urban data, the results can help urban planning administrators to predict the potential economic attributes using easily accessible street network data in commercial clusters.

Multi-View Multi-Attention Graph Neural Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

The key to intelligent traffic control and guidance lies in accurate prediction of traffic flow. Since traffic flow data is nonlinear, complex, and dynamic, in order to overcome these issues, graph neural network techniques are employed to address these challenges. For this reason, we propose a deep-learning architecture called AMGC-AT and apply it to a real passenger flow dataset of the Hangzhou metro for evaluation. Based on a priori knowledge, we set up multi-view graphs to express the static feature similarity of each station in the metro network, such as geographic location and zone function, which are then input to the multi-graph neural network with the goal of extracting and aggregating features in order to realize the complex spatial dependence of each station’s passenger flow. Furthermore, based on periodic features of historical traffic flows, we categorize the flow data into three time patterns. Specifically, we propose two different self-attention mechanisms to fuse high-order spatiotemporal features of traffic flow. The final step is to integrate the two modules and obtain the output results using a gated convolution and a fully connected neural network. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better performance than eight other baseline models at 10 min, 15 min and 30 min time intervals.

Research on Short-Term Traffic Flow Combination Prediction Based on CEEMDAN and Machine Learning

Traffic flow has the characteristics of randomness, complexity, and nonlinearity, which brings great difficulty to the prediction of short-term traffic flow. Based on considering the advantages and disadvantages of various prediction models, this paper proposes a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and machine learning. Firstly, CEEMDAN is used to decompose the original traffic flow time series to obtain multiple component sequences with huge complexity differences. In order to measure the complexity of each component sequence, the permutation entropy of each component sequence is calculated. According to the permutation entropy, the component sequence is divided into three types: high-frequency components, intermediate-frequency components, and low-frequency components. Secondly, according to the different volatility of the three types of components, the high-frequency components, intermediate-frequency components, and low-frequency components are predicted by long short-term memory (LSTM), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN), respectively. Finally, the accurate traffic flow prediction value can be obtained by the linear superposition of the prediction results of the three component prediction models. Through a measured traffic flow data, the combined model proposed in this paper is compared to the binary gray wolf algorithm–long short-term memory (BGWO-LSTM) model, the improved gray wolf algorithm–support vector machine (IGWO-SVM) model, and the KNN model. The mean square error (MSE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 41.26, 44.98, and 57.69, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 2.33, 2.44, and 2.70, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 2.89, 3.11, and 3.80, respectively. The three error indexes of the combined model are far smaller than those of the other single models. At the same time, the decision coefficient (R2) of the combined model is also closer to 1 compared to the other models, indicating that the prediction result of the combined model is the closest to the actual traffic flow.

Fine-Grained Vessel Traffic Flow Prediction With a Spatio-Temporal Multigraph Convolutional Network

The accurate and robust prediction of vessel traffic flow is gaining importance in maritime intelligent transportation system (ITS), such as vessel traffic services, maritime spatial planning, and traffic safety management, etc. To achieve fine-grained vessel traffic flow prediction, we will first generate the maritime traffic network (which is essentially a graph), and then propose a graph-driven neural network. In particular, to represent various correlations among spatio-temporal vessel traffic flow, we tend to extract the feature points (i.e., starting, way and ending points) by utilizing the knowledge of vessel positioning data. These feature points are essentially related to the geometrical structures of massive vessel trajectories collected from massive automatic identification system (AIS) records, contributing to the generation of maritime traffic network. We then propose a spatio-temporal multi-graph convolutional network (STMGCN)-based vessel traffic flow prediction method by exploiting multiple types of inherent correlations in the generated maritime graph. The proposed STMGCN mainly contains one spatial multi-graph convolutional layer and two temporal gated convolutional layers, beneficial for extracting spatial and temporal traffic flow patterns. The main benefit of our graph-driven prediction method is that it takes full advantage of the maritime graph and multi-graph learning. Comprehensive experiments have been implemented on realistic AIS dataset to compare our method with several state-of-the-art prediction methods. The fine-grained prediction results have demonstrated our superior performance in terms of both accuracy and robustness.

Urban traffic flow prediction: a dynamic temporal graph network considering missing values

Accurate traffic flow prediction on the urban road network is an indispensable function of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), which is of great significance for urban traffic planning. However, the current traffic flow prediction methods still face many challenges, such as missing values and dynamic spatial relationships in traffic flow. In this study, a dynamic temporal graph neural network considering missing values (D-TGNM) is proposed for traffic flow prediction. First, inspired by the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), we extend the classic BERT model, called Traffic BERT, to learn the dynamic spatial associations on the road structure. Second, we propose a temporal graph neural network considering missing values (TGNM) to mine traffic flow patterns in missing data scenarios for traffic flow prediction. Finally, the proposed D-TGNM model can be obtained by integrating the dynamic spatial associations learned by Traffic BERT into the TGNM model. To train the D-TGNM model, we design a novel loss function, which considers the missing values problem and prediction problem in traffic flow, to optimize the proposed model. The proposed model was validated on an actual traffic dataset collected in Wuhan, China. Experimental results showed that D-TGNM achieved good prediction results under four missing data scenarios (15% random missing, 15% block missing, 30% random missing, and 30% block missing), and outperformed ten existing state-of-the-art baselines.

ST-InNet: Deep Spatio-Temporal Inception Networks for Traffic Flow Prediction in Smart Cities

Traffic flow prediction plays a critical role in reducing traffic congestion in transportation systems. However, accurate traffic flow prediction becomes challenging due to the impact of complex spatio-temporal (ST) correlations and the diversity of ST correlations. When modeling complicated ST correlations, researchers usu did not take the diversity of ST correlations into consideration, resulting in poor prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose ST-InNet, a deep spatio-temporal Inception network for collectively predicting traffic flow in each city region. Specifically, ST-InNet employs two Inception networks to simultaneously capture various spatial and temporal correlations of traffic data, including temporal closeness, temporal periodicity, nearby spatial dependencies, and distant spatial dependencies. For the diversity of spatial correlations, ST-InNet presents an improved variant of an Inception module to explicitly capture the different contributions of spatial correlations for each region. For the diversity of temporal correlations, ST-InNet designs a fusion component to explicitly model the varying contributions of temporal correlations on prediction. The experiments are conducted on a real-world traffic dataset in Nanjing, demonstrating that ST-InNet outperforms five state-of-the-art baselines in short-term and long-term traffic flow predictions with an average accuracy improvement of 32.09% and 30.97%, respectively.

Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Multi-Spatiotemporal Attention Gated Graph Convolution Network

Accurate prediction of traffic flow plays an important role in ensuring public traffic safety and solving traffic congestion. Because graph convolutional neural network (GCN) can perform effective feature calculation for unstructured data, doing research based on GCN model has become the main way for traffic flow prediction research. However, most of the existing research methods solving this problem are based on combining the graph convolutional neural network and recurrent neural network for traffic prediction. Such research routines have high computational cost and few attentions on impaction of different time and nodes. In order to improve the accuracy of traffic flow prediction, a gated attention graph convolution model based on multiple spatiotemporal channels was proposed in this paper. This model takes multiple time period data as input and extracts the features of each channel by superimposing multiple gated temporal and spatial attention modules. The final feature vector is obtained by means of weighted linear superposition. Experimental results on two sets of data show that the proposed method has good performance in precision and interpretability.

Hierarchical Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network

In recent years, traffic flow prediction has attracted more and more interest from both academia and industry since such information can provide effective guidance for traffic management or driving planning and enhance traffic safety and efficiency. But due to the complicated spatial-temporal dependence in actual roads and the limitation of intersection monitoring equipment, there are still many challenges in spatial-temporal traffic flow prediction. In this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical traffic flow prediction protocol based on spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN), which incorporates both spatial and temporal dependence of intersection traffic to achieve a more accurate traffic flow prediction. Different from existing works, our proposed protocol with the Adjacent-Similar algorithm can also effectively predict the traffic flow of the intersections without historical data. Experiments based on practical traffic data of the city of Qingdao, China demonstrate that our proposed ST-GCN-based traffic flow prediction protocol outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline models. Moreover, as for the intersections without historical data, we can also obtain a good prediction accuracy.

Attention Mechanism With Spatial-Temporal Joint Model for Traffic Flow Speed Prediction

Intelligent transportation system (ITS) plays an important role in solving today’s transportation problems, and short-term traffic flow prediction is at its core. Deep learning can extract and capture abstract high-order features, and introducing attention mechanism to improve the performance of deep learning algorithm has been verified in many fields. Due to the complexity and randomness of traffic flow, accurate traffic flow prediction is not a simple task. Reasonable use of deep learning to predict traffic flow is of great significance to the whole transportation system. In this paper, the reason of choosing recurrent neural network (RNN) as the basic network for traffic flow prediction is explained. Aiming at the problem of gradient disappearance in practical application, the long short-term memory network (LSTM) is introduced to improve the model, and the model framework, algorithm and training process are described in detail. Attention mechanism is introduced into LSTM-RNN to build a short-term traffic flow prediction model. Applying the proposed model to observed traffic flow data, we found that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy and model efficiency.

A Data Fusion Powered Bi-Directional Long Short Term Memory Model for Predicting Multi-Lane Short Term Traffic Flow

In intelligent transportation system (ITS), accurate and real-time prediction of short-term multi-lane traffic flow with existing traffic data is an important part of urban traffic planning, traffic management and control. The data generated in the process of vehicle driving has the cooperative characteristics of multi-source, space-time and dynamic. Combining the data with high-performance computing or cloud computing, a new space-time information framework is designed, which is of great significance for the analysis and prediction of traffic flow, as well as intelligent traffic management, service and decision-making. This paper analyzes the statistical characteristics of urban road traffic flow from the two dimensions of time and space through the spatial-temporal correlation between multi-lane short term traffic flow in single observation point and multi observation points. We constructed a data fusion powered bi-directional long short term memory (DFBD-LSTM) model for individual lane and aggregate traffic flow, then used this model to predict multi-lane short term traffic flow. By taking individual lane traffic flow and aggregate traffic flow as different variables, the model produces more accurate predictions, which can better guide people to travel, alleviate the congestion of urban road traffic network to a certain extent, and improve the utilization rate and transportation efficiency of traffic road.

Interval Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Method Based on CEEMDAN-SE Nosie Reduction and LSTM Optimized by GWO

With rapid economic growth and urbanization, the accelerated increase in car ownership has brought massive pressure on urban traffic, and accurate traffic flow prediction information can provide an important basis for urban traffic dynamic planning. The existing methods have problems such as low efficiency, large error, and inability to adapt to short-term traffic changes. To solve the above problems, the CEEMDAN-SE-GWO-LSTM method was proposed in this paper. First, the traffic flow data is processed for outliers and missing values. The Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) method is used to decompose the traffic flow data, and sample entropy (SE) is used to reconstruct the subsequence, which is used to improve the quality of the input data. Then, the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) is used to optimize the parameters of the long-short-term memory (LSTM) in order to improve the prediction accuracy and prevent the model from falling into a local optimum. Three models are used to compare with the ensemble model proposed in this paper, including back propagation neural network (BPNN), LSTM, and long-short-term memory optimized by Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO-LSTM). Root mean square error (RMSE) is reduced by 40.9% to 66.7%;R2score is improved by 1.5% to 7.1%. The experimental results show that CEEMDAN-SE-GWO-LSTM has a higher prediction accuracy than the existing traffic flow prediction models. Finally, this paper uses the model prediction error to establish an interval prediction model based on the kernel density estimation theory, which enhances the generalization of the model and the practical application value.

Research Based on vehicle exhaust emission estimation

With the development and progress of society, short-term traffic flow prediction has become an increasingly important topic. Accurate prediction of traffic flow can not only provide necessary guidance for the transportation department, but also bring convenience to travel, but also play an important role in the prevention and control of urban air pollution. This paper mainly studies the prediction of vehicle flow, and then estimates the vehicle exhaust through the calculated vehicle flow, trying to establish the estimation model of vehicle flow and vehicle exhaust. Through Gaode map interface and WGS-84 (GPS) coordinates of each bayonet provided, the road name corresponding to the bayonet equipment is obtained according to the distance vector, and the data is preprocessed. For the interval road motor vehicle flow, the dynamic prediction can be realized by using the interdependence between the time series observations. According to the time dimension of prediction, traffic flow prediction can generally be divided into long-term traffic flow prediction (in year), medium-term traffic flow prediction (in month and day) and short-term traffic flow prediction (in hour and minute). According to the data provided, due to the weak regularity of short-term traffic flow data of interval roads, strong random error interference, and high uncertainty, it is difficult to predict accurately, The long-term and medium-term traffic flow data have strong periodicity and weak random interference. Considering the accuracy and data provided, this paper mainly selects the prediction method based on endogenous variables represented by autoregressive moving average model ARIMA and time cycle neural network LSTM. Because the use conditions of the two models are different, it is necessary to improve the model and modify the use scenario of the model. The advantage of this method is that the data acquisition cost is low and easy to implement. Finally, the prediction effect of traffic flow is evaluated by cellular automata to improve the performance of the model.

IGCRRN: Improved Graph Convolution Res-Recurrent Network for spatio-temporal dependence capturing and traffic flow prediction

Accurate traffic flow prediction is critical for traffic management and route guidance, enabling urban traffic to be free-flowing conditions and maximizing transport efficiency. In current prediction methods, the simple and fixed spatial graph only uses the prior knowledge of the traffic network, resulting in weak prediction performance. This paper proposes an Improved Graph Convolution Res-Recurrent Network (IGCRRN), which relies on uncertain spatio-temporal information for traffic flow prediction. In particular, a spatial dependence matrix that combines the origin graph matrix and the data-generated embedding node matrix is created. In this way, the spatial connection relationship can be obtained from the static graph information and changing traffic flow series, making the improved graph convolution block infer and quantify the different contributions in both spatial dependence and temporal dependence in a data-driven manner. In addition, the residual structure is employed to model the multi-level spatial dependence, and the IGCRRN-cell units based on the residual connection block and LSTM are designed to make the model automatically capture the spatio-temporal dependence in the traffic flow sequence. Experiments are conducted on two real traffic datasets, and the experiment results show that our proposed spatial dependence matrix can investigate the valuable information and consider the heterogeneity in the traffic flow. The IGCRRN model outperforms the baseline and state-of-the-art methods in prediction performance.

LST-GCN: Long Short-Term Memory Embedded Graph Convolution Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate traffic flow prediction is of great significance for strengthening urban management and facilitating people’s travel. In this paper, we propose a model named LST-GCN to improve the accuracy of current traffic flow predictions. We simulate the spatiotemporal correlations present in traffic flow prediction by optimizing GCN (graph convolutional network) parameters using an LSTM (long short-term memory) network. Specifically, we capture spatial correlations by learning topology through GCN networks and temporal correlations by embedding LSTM networks into the training process of GCN networks. This method improves the traditional method of combining the recurrent neural network and graph neural network in the original spatiotemporal traffic flow prediction, so it can better capture the spatiotemporal features existing in the traffic flow. Extensive experiments conducted on the PEMS dataset illustrate the effectiveness and outperformance of our method compared with other state-of-the-art methods.