Accuracy Of Wind Power Prediction Research Articles

MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM short-term wind power prediction considering rolling error correction

Abstract Wind energy is a clean and renewable source that has the potential to alleviate the global fossil fuel crisis and environmental pollution by generating electricity. However, accurately predicting wind energy output remains challenging due to its inherent uncertainty. To enhance the accuracy of wind power prediction, a short-term wind power forecasting method for power systems, MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM, is proposed, which considers error rolling correction. The method begins with feature selection and outlier handling using the quadrature method. Then, wind power data is decomposed into multiple sub-sequences using the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique to reduce the raw volatility of wind power. Then, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) followed by a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model is used for wind power prediction. Finally, the proposed method utilizes the Monte Carlo method for rolling error correction by using known errors from previous time frames to correct subsequent predictions. The MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM proposed in this paper considering error rolling correction is compared with ELM, SVM, PSO-BP and ARIMA models through an example analysis of the data of a city, and the proposed model in this paper reduces 61.78%, 50.35%, 62.30% and 73.05% in the NRMSE index in the spring as an example, respectively. The results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with the traditional prediction model.

Two-stage Day-ahead Multi-step Prediction of Wind Power Considering Time-series Information Interaction

With the large-scale development of wind power, high penetration wind power grid connection poses serious challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system. However, the current accuracy of wind power forecasting is facing bottlenecks due to the limitations of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data. Therefore, this article proposes a two-stage day-ahead multi-step wind power prediction (WPP) scheme that considers temporal information interaction. In the first stage, the next day prediction of wind power is based on historical power and 0∼24 hours NWP data. Then, an embedded deep decomposition module is used to extract predictable components and multi-scale information fusion is performed. In the second stage, the result of day-ahead WPP is obtained based on the extracted predictable components and combined with 24∼48 hours of NWP data. The wind farms in Jilin and Inner Mongolia of China are used to experimental analysis. The results show that the scheme proposed in the article has a better prediction effect compared with other schemes in the paper, which can effectively improve the multi-step prediction accuracy of day-ahead wind power.

BiLSTM-InceptionV3-Transformer-fully-connected model for short-term wind power forecasting

Accurate short-term wind power prediction can help grid managers optimize the transmission and storage of electricity from wind farms, avoiding energy wastage and unnecessary operating costs, and ensuring the stability and reliability of power supply. However, stochastic nature and uncertainty data pose challenges for accurate wind power prediction models. This study combines complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), discrete wavelet transform (DWT), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), InceptionV3, Transformer, and fully connected neural networks for wind power prediction. The proposed prediction model can fully capture the nonlinear and dynamic characteristics of the wind speed data that are decomposed into intrinsic modal functions by CEEMD. Simultaneously, the prediction model can capture the local characteristics and cyclic variations of the data at different time scales based on fifth-order DWT. A dataset spanning 378 days from Natal is employed and the proposed model is compared with 19 other networks (e.g., ResNet, GoogleNet, SqueezeNet) and 15 other traditional regression algorithms (e.g., Gaussian process regression, least-angle regression, and nearest neighbors regression). The experimental results show that the designed BiLSTM-InceptionV3-Transformer-fully-connected model (BITFM) can reduce the mean absolute error by at least 38.75 % and the root mean squared error by at least 33.33 % compared with 19 other networks. Compared with 15 traditional regression prediction models, BITFM can reduce the mean absolute error by at least 57.41 % and the root mean squared error by at least 53.95 %. To further validate the prediction performance of BITFM, this study conducts tests employing data from the Santa Vitoria do Palmar. The experimental results indicate that BITFM consistently achieved the best performance metrics.

A novel hybrid BWO-BiLSTM-ATT framework for accurate offshore wind power prediction

Accurate wind power forecasting is pivotal in facilitating the efficient integration of renewable energy sources into existing power grids. This study proposes a novel hybrid framework, termed BWO-BiLSTM-ATT, which synergistically combines the strengths of a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network, a self-attention mechanism, and the Beluga Whale Optimization (BWO) algorithm. The BiLSTM architecture, with its unique ability to capture bidirectional temporal dependencies, effectively models the intricate dynamics present in wind power time series data. Integrating the self-attention mechanism further enhances the model's performance by discerning and emphasizing the most salient features within the input data. Furthermore, employing the BWO algorithm optimizes the model's hyperparameters, ensuring optimal configuration and enhancing its predictive accuracy and generalization capabilities. The proposed BWO-BiLSTM-ATT framework was rigorously evaluated using real-world data from an offshore wind farm in Yangjiang City, China. Comparative analyses were conducted against several baseline algorithms, including persistence, ARIMA, SVR, and vanilla LSTM models. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the BWO-BiLSTM-ATT framework, achieving higher R-squared and explained variance scores, coupled with lower error metrics such as MSE, RMSE, MedAE, and MAE. Statistical significance tests further corroborated the substantial performance improvements offered by the proposed framework. The combination of advanced deep learning techniques and metaheuristic optimization algorithms embedded in the BWO-BiLSTM-ATT framework provides a robust and accurate solution for wind power forecasting, enabling efficient management and seamless integration of renewable energy resources into existing power grids.

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Feature-Weighted and Combined Models

Accurate wind power prediction helps to fully utilize wind energy and improve the stability of the power grid. However, existing studies mostly analyze key wind power-related features equally without distinguishing the importance of different features. In addition, single models have limitations in fully extracting input feature information and capturing the time-dependent relationships of feature sequences, posing significant challenges to wind power prediction. To solve these problems, this paper presents a wind power forecasting approach that combines feature weighting and a combination model. Firstly, we use the attention mechanism to learn the weights of different input features, highlighting the more important features. Secondly, a Multi-Convolutional Neural Network (MCNN) with different convolutional kernels is employed to extract feature information comprehensively. Next, the extracted feature information is input into a Stacked BiLSTM (SBiLSTM) network to capture the temporal dependencies of the feature sequence. Finally, the prediction results are obtained. This article conducted four comparative experiments using measured data from wind farms. The experimental results demonstrate that the model has significant advantages; compared to the CNN-BiLSTM model, the mean absolute error, mean squared error, and root mean squared error of multi-step prediction at different prediction time resolutions are reduced by 35.59%, 59.84%, and 36.77% on average, respectively, and the coefficient of determination is increased by 1.35% on average.

A novel chaotic time series wind power point and interval prediction method based on data denoising strategy and improved coati optimization algorithm

Wind power prediction plays a pivotal role in increasing the power grid stability and mitigating market transaction risks. To enhance the prediction accuracy of wind power, this study presents a novel chaotic time series wind power point and interval prediction approach, focusing on data processing, as well as an improved coati optimization algorithm. First, the improved wavelet threshold denoising (IWTD) technique is constructed to eliminate the noise from the original wind power data. Then, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) is adopted to determine the optimal inputs of the prediction model. Subsequently, the improved coati optimization algorithm (ICOA) is developed to optimize the hyperparameters of the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), deep belief network (DBN), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models, along with the linear weight coefficients of the combined model, thereby enhancing the point prediction accuracy. Finally, kernel density estimation (KDE) is employed to obtain interval predictions for wind power with different confidence levels. Results show that the proposed prediction method effectively improves the prediction accuracy compared with other popular prediction models.

A new short-term wind power prediction methodology based on linear and nonlinear hybrid models

Fast and accurate wind power prediction is of great significance for grid planning. However, wind power dataset tends to be highly stochastic and volatile, while showing more stable seasonal and cyclical changes, which is a linear and nonlinear superposition features, and it is difficult to use a single linear or nonlinear model to make accurate predictions. Considering these essential features of wind power data, a short-term wind power prediction method based on linear and nonlinear hybrid models is proposed in this paper. First, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) is used to decompose and reconstruct the wind speed and direction in the original dataset to reduce the volatility. Then, to capture the linear features in the dataset, the autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables (AIRMAX) is used for linear modeling, and the sparrow search algorithm optimized gated recurrent unit (SSA-GRU) is used to model the nonlinear features. At the same time, to improve the efficiency of model training, federated learning (FL) is utilized for distributed model training. Finally, the ARIMAX and SSA-GRU models are weighted and summed the prediction results to gain the final prediction results using equal weighted averaging (EWA), minimum sum of squares error (MSSE), and maximum grey relational analysis (MGRA), which are commonly used to compute the weights of the combined models, respectively. The wind power dataset from a wind farm in northwest China from January 1, 2022 to October 31, 2022 are used for experiments and analysis, and the results show that the root mean square error (RMSE), R-square (R2), and accuracy (ACC) of the proposed method are 11.944, 0.987, and 0.613, respectively, which are better than all the compared models. The main contribution of this paper is twofold, on the one hand, it indirectly proves that the wind power dataset is formed by the superposition of linear and nonlinear features, and on the other hand, it puts forward a theoretical model and research paradigm for predicting short-term wind power and presents a scientific basis for grid scheduling.

Wind power prediction through acoustic data-driven online modeling and active wake control

Accurate online prediction of wind power is essential for the reliable operation of power systems. However, the precision of wind turbine power forecasts is often hindered by wake effects and inadequate online modeling capabilities. To tackle this issue, this paper proposes a data-driven online prediction method for wind turbine power, leveraging acoustic data for training. The approach involves a neural network that learns acoustic feature changes related to wind output power, by enhancing the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) technique and applying data augmentation. Additionally, to address the wake effects in real wind fields, active wake control is integrated, considering that most wind turbines operate in the wake of upstream turbines. Experiments using actual wind tunnel measurement data were conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. The findings demonstrate that this method surpasses other techniques without increasing computational costs. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the proposed method was only 0.4111 and 0.4302, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was just 0.4868 and 0.5195, respectively, in both experiments. Moreover, the proposed acoustic data-driven online power prediction method proves stable in high background noise environments and achieves accurate wind power prediction with just a 10% data sample following the implementation of the active wake control strategy. This work significantly contributes to the efficient utilization of wind energy resources.

Research and application of a novel weight-based evolutionary ensemble model using principal component analysis for wind power prediction

Accurate prediction of wind power is crucial for optimizing wind energy utilization and ensuring the secure, cost-effective, and stable operation of power systems. To address this, a novel approach is proposed that combines a multi-network deep ensemble model with an improved manta ray foraging optimization algorithm (IMRFO) and feature selection for wind power prediction. Firstly, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to select the principal component with a cumulative contribution rate of 95 %. Secondly, the ensemble prediction model is constructed in the layer-1, incorporating extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and temporal convolutional network (TCN). Additionally, an error-based weighted fusion method is implemented to combine the outputs of three learners. In the layer-2, random forest (RF) employed to make predictions based on the fused results. To further enhance the predictive capabilities of the model, an enhanced MRFO algorithm, incorporating chaos initialization and Gauss-Cauchy mutation strategy, is added. The experiment shows that the deep ensemble model using PCA and IMRFO outperforms XGBoost, GRU, and TCN in predicting. On four datasets, the RMSE of the proposed model is improved by over 45 % compared to them. These findings strongly support the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model in this domain.

Enhancing wind power prediction with self-attentive variational autoencoders: A comparative study

Accurate wind power prediction is critical for efficient grid management and the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This study presents an effective deep-learning approach that improves short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. The method incorporates a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) with a self-attention mechanism applied in both the encoder and decoder. This empowers the model to leverage VAE's strengths in time-series modeling and nonlinear approximation while focusing on the most relevant features within the wind power data. The effectiveness of this approach is evaluated through a comprehensive comparison with eight established deep learning methods, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Bidirectional LSTMs (BiLSTMs), Convolutional LSTMs (ConvLSTMs), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), Stacked Autoencoders (SAEs), Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), and vanilla VAEs. Real-world data from five wind turbines in France and Turkey is used for the evaluation. Five statistical metrics are employed to quantitatively assess the prediction performance of each method. The results indicate that the SA-VAE model consistently outperformed other models, achieving the highest average R2 value of 0.992, demonstrating its superior predictive capability compared to existing techniques.

A Multiscale Hybrid Wind Power Prediction Model Based on Least Squares Support Vector Regression–Regularized Extreme Learning Machine–Multi-Head Attention–Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit and Data Decomposition

Ensuring the accuracy of wind power prediction is paramount for the reliable and stable operation of power systems. This study introduces a novel approach aimed at enhancing the precision of wind power prediction through the development of a multiscale hybrid model. This model integrates advanced methodologies including Improved Intrinsic Mode Function with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN), permutation entropy (PE), Least Squares Support Vector Regression (LSSVR), Regularized Extreme Learning Machine (RELM), multi-head attention (MHA), and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU). Firstly, the ICEEMDAN technique is employed to decompose the non-stationary raw wind power data into multiple relatively stable sub-modes, while concurrently utilizing PE to assess the complexity of each sub-mode. Secondly, the dataset is reconstituted into three distinct components as follows: high-frequency, mid-frequency, and low-frequency, to alleviate data complexity. Following this, the LSSVR, RELM, and MHA-BiGRU models are individually applied to predict the high-, mid-, and low-frequency components, respectively. Thirdly, the parameters of the low-frequency prediction model are optimized utilizing the Dung Beetle Optimizer (DBO) algorithm. Ultimately, the predicted results of each component are aggregated to derive the final prediction. The empirical findings illustrate the exceptional predictive performance of the multiscale hybrid model incorporating LSSVR, RELM, and MHA-BiGRU. In comparison with other benchmark models, the proposed model exhibits a reduction in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values of over 10%, conclusively affirming its superior predictive accuracy.

Deep Learning Wind Power Prediction Model Based on Attention Mechanism-Based Convolutional Neural Network and Gated Recurrent Unit Neural Network

Accurate prediction of wind power is crucial for the efficient operation and risk management of wind farms. This paper introduces a deep learning model for wind power prediction that integrates an Attention mechanism with a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network. Addressing the randomness, intermittency, volatility and uncertainty of wind speed, we first apply swarm decomposition (SWD) to preprocess the original wind power data into subsequences. Subsequently, the CNN extracts spatial features, and the GRU identifies temporal correlations. The Attention mechanism enhances feature significance, further optimizing prediction accuracy. Complex error sequences generated by the CNN–GRU–Attention (CGA) model are corrected using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). We evaluated the model’s performance using three wind power datasets against 16 other models, employing six evaluation indices (MSE, RMSE, MAPE, Theil’s [Formula: see text], TIC and SPL) and the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test and model confidence set (MCS) for model testing. Our results demonstrate the proposed model’s superior accuracy and efficiency in predicting wind power.

Short-term wind power prediction based on improved sparrow search algorithm optimized long short-term memory with peephole connections

Accurate short-term wind power prediction is of great significance for the scheduling and management of wind farms. This paper proposes a model for short-term wind power prediction. Firstly, on the basis of traditional long short-term memory network, the peephole connections is added. The improved long short-term memory network is more stable compared to traditional long short-term memory neural networks and is suitable for regression prediction. Secondly, chaotic mapping, adaptive weights, Cauchy mutation, and opposition-based learning strategies are introduced to improve the sparrow search algorithm, and applied to optimize the four hyper-parameters of the long short-term memory network, greatly improving the prediction accuracy of the network. The effectiveness of the model is validated using two short-term wind power datasets with sampling times of 10 and 30 minutes respectively, combined with some fitting curves and performance indicators. The comparison results indicate that the proposed short-term wind power prediction model has high prediction accuracy.

A novel hybrid model based on multiple influencing factors and temporal convolutional network coupling ReOSELM for wind power prediction

Highly accurate wind power prediction is important for the operation and management of wind farms, energy utilization and power supply. In recent years, in order to further improve prediction accuracy, some researchers have considered utilizing factors such as wind speed and wind direction to establish prediction models. However, this often results in input redundancy due to a lack of technical means. In this paper, a multivariate prediction model for wind power based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), fuzzy entropy (FE), partial auto-correlation function and cross-correlation function (PACF&CCF, abbreviated as PC), improved artificial hummingbird algorithm (IAHA), temporal convolutional network (TCN), and regularized online sequential extreme learning machine (ReOSELM) is proposed. To address the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the original wind power time series and decrease computational costs, the VMD combined with FE data preprocessing technique is employed. Considering the information redundancy in the multivariate data, the PC technique is utilized to conduct correlation analysis on the input data and select highly correlated features as inputs. When the input is multivariate and high-dimensional, the ReOSELM model struggles to achieve satisfactory prediction performance. Therefore, a new model based on TCN-ReOSELM is constructed. Additionally, to overcome the drawbacks of manual parameter adjustment, an IAHA algorithm is proposed, which integrates Latin hypercube sampling and chaotic local search strategies, to optimize the crucial parameters of TCN-ReOSELM. The experimental results demonstrate that the multivariate method proposed in this paper reduces the RMSE by 31% compared to the univariate method. Specifically, the proposed VMD-FE-PC-TCN-ReOSELM model reduces the RMSE, MAE, and SMAPE by 60–64%, 55–58%, and 10–36%, respectively, compared to the PC-TCN-ReOSELM model.

Dual NWP wind speed correction based on trend fusion and fluctuation clustering and its application in short-term wind power prediction

With the continuous growth of grid-connected installed capacity of wind power, the inevitable gap, volatility and randomness of wind power pose challenges to the stability of real-time operation of power system. Accurate wind power prediction (WPP) can effectively ensure the safe and stable operation of power system. At present, the main input of short-term power prediction based on data-driven model is numerical weather prediction (NWP), and its prediction accuracy leads to the failure to effectively improve the accuracy of short-term power prediction. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a dual NWP wind speed (WS) correction method based on trend fusion and fluctuation clustering. First, the WS trend is used to construct a new input feature, and the NWP WS error distribution is determined to establish a more correct and stable mapping relationship with the NWP WS error. Secondly, the error is decomposed by Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), and the trend and fluctuation components are defined by Pearson coefficient. The trend curve features in the short 24h period were extracted from the two dimensions of time and value, and the trend and fluctuation curve databases under different scenarios were formed by K-Medoids clustering. Finally, the trend component is modified by the Attention-GRU model, and the corresponding trend component is searched and matched from the database to correct the fluctuation component. The NWP WS is modified by the superposition of the two components and the short-term WPP is made. Two wind farms in Mengxi, China were used for example analysis, and the prediction accuracy was improved by 10 % and 13.1 % respectively, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A pyramidal residual attention model of short‐term wind power forecasting for wind farm safety

AbstractWind power fluctuation significantly impacts the safe and stable operation of the wind farm power grid. As the installed capacity of grid‐connected wind power expands to a certain threshold, these fluctuations can detrimentally affect the wind farm's operations. Consequently, wind power prediction emerges as a critical technology for ensuring safe, stable and efficient wind power generation. To optimize power grid dispatching and enhance wind farm operation and maintenance, precise wind power prediction is essential. In this context, we introduce a joint deep learning model that integrates a compact pyramid structure with a residual attention encoder, aiming to bolster wind farm operational safety and reliability. The model employs a compact pyramid architecture to extract multi‐time scale features from the input sequence, facilitating effective information exchange across different scales and enhancing the capture of long‐term sequence dependencies. To mitigate vanishing gradients, the residual transformer encoder is applied, augmenting the original attention mechanism with a global dot product attention pathway. This approach improves the gradient descent process, making it more accessible without introducing additional hyperparameters. The model's efficacy is validated using a dataset from an actual wind farm in China. Experimental outcomes reveal a notable enhancement in wind power prediction accuracy, thereby contributing to the operational safety of wind farms.

Prediction of wind and PV power by fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a PSO-BiLSTM model

Accurate prediction of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power is essential to ensure the stable operation of power systems. However, the conventional power prediction methods face the challenges in capturing the stochastic fluctuations of wind and PV power. A wind and PV power prediction method fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM) model is developed. To illustrate the oscillation and instability of wind and PV power, the symplectic geometry model decomposition (SGMD) is presented to decompose the feature data and obtain multiple feature sub-sequences. Due to the excessive feature decomposition using the conventional methods, such as empirical modal decomposition, the kernel principal component analysis is utilized to reduce the dimensionality of the nonlinear sub-sequences of the wind and PV power. Compared to the traditional LSTM that ignores the inverse-time correlation between power and meteorological features and is sensitive to the model hyper-parameters, a power prediction model based on PSO-BiLSTM is developed. Using the power data from a power station in Xinjiang Province, China, as an example, the experimental results show that wind and PV power can be accurately forecasted using the developed method with high prediction accuracies of 97.9 % and 98.5 %, respectively.

Multi-temporal Scale Wind Power Forecasting Based on Lasso-CNN-LSTM-LightGBM

Due to the increasingly severe climate problems, wind energy has received widespread attention as the most abundant energy on Earth. However, due to the uncertainty of wind energy, a large amount of wind energy is wasted, so accurate wind power prediction can greatly improve the utilization of wind energy. To increase the forecast for wind energy accuracy across a range of time scales, this paper presents a multi-time scale wind power prediction by constructing an ICEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM-LightGBM model. Initially, feature selection is performed using Lasso regression to identify the most significant variables affecting the forecast for wind energy across distinct time intervals. Subsequently, the ICEEMDAN is utilized to break down the wind power data into various scales to capture its nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. Following this, a deep learning model based on CNN and LSTM networks is developed, with the CNN responsible for extracting spatial features from the time series data, and the LSTM designed to capture the temporal relationships. Finally, the outputs of the deep learning model are fed into the LightGBM model to leverage its superior learning capabilities for the ultimate prediction of wind power. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed ICEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM-LightGBM model achieves higher accuracy in multi-time scale wind power prediction, providing more reliable decision assistance with the management and operation of wind farms.

An Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Quadratic Decomposition and Multi-Objective Optimization

To augment the accuracy, stability, and qualification rate of wind power prediction, thereby fostering the secure and economical operation of wind farms, a method predicated on quadratic decomposition and multi-objective optimization for ultra-short-term wind power prediction is proposed. Initially, the original wind power signal is decomposed using a quadratic decomposition method constituted by the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Fuzzy Entropy (FE), and Symplectic Geometry Mode Decomposition (SGMD), thereby mitigating the randomness and volatility of the original signal. Subsequently, the decomposed signal components are introduced into the Deep Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (DBiLSTM) neural network for time series modeling, and the Sand Cat Swarm Optimization Algorithm (SCSO) is employed to optimize the network hyperparameters, thereby enhancing the network’s predictive performance. Ultimately, a multi-objective optimization loss that accommodates accuracy, stability, and grid compliance is proposed to guide network training. Experimental results reveal that the employed quadratic decomposition method and the proposed multi-objective optimization loss can effectively bolster the model’s predictive performance. Compared to other classical methods, the proposed method achieves optimal results across different seasons, thereby demonstrating robust practicality.

LSTM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Data Preprocessing and Variational Modal Decomposition for Soft Sensors.

Soft sensors have been extensively utilized to approximate real-time power prediction in wind power generation, which is challenging to measure instantaneously. The short-term forecast of wind power aims at providing a reference for the dispatch of the intraday power grid. This study proposes a soft sensor model based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network by combining data preprocessing with Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD) to improve wind power prediction accuracy. It does so by adopting the isolation forest algorithm for anomaly detection of the original wind power series and processing the missing data by multiple imputation. Based on the process data samples, VMD technology is used to achieve power data decomposition and noise reduction. The LSTM network is introduced to predict each modal component separately, and further sum reconstructs the prediction results of each component to complete the wind power prediction. From the experimental results, it can be seen that the LSTM network which uses an Adam optimizing algorithm has better convergence accuracy. The VMD method exhibited superior decomposition outcomes due to its inherent Wiener filter capabilities, which effectively mitigate noise and forestall modal aliasing. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was reduced by 9.3508%, which indicates that the LSTM network combined with the VMD method has better prediction accuracy.