White perch ( Morone americana) invaded Lake Champlain, New York-Vermont, in the mid-1980s, yet abundance of white perch and those factors controlling their abundance are unknown. To predict the expansion of white perch, we differentiated between the most likely factors affecting white perch abundance; habitat characteristics or an invasion gradient (i.e., abundance is greater near the point of entry). Therefore, we addressed three questions: 1) where are white perch currently established; 2) what is the relation of white perch abundance to environmental variables and to an invasion gradient; and 3) based on the most likely factors affecting abundance, where will white perch become abundant in Lake Champlain? Fish communities were sampled and ten environmental variables were measured at sites along the eastern shore of Lake Champlain. Among sites and across seasons, two abiotic factors (turbidity and conductivity) had the greatest effect on white perch abundance. Biotic factors, yellow perch ( Perca flavescens) abundance and chlorophyll a, however had lesser effects. We predict white perch will not become abundant in habitats with low water conductivity, turbidity and chlorophyll a, and a high abundance of potential competitors. Our predictions are consistent with data from other systems, which indicate environmental characteristics are likely more important than an invasion gradient in contributing to white perch colonization.