Absolute Decoupling Research Articles

Decoupling Economic Growth from Fossil Fuel Use—Evidence from 141 Countries in the 25-Year Perspective

This study offers an in-depth analysis of the decoupling of economic growth from fossil fuel use in 141 countries over the last 25 years. The study is based on the Tapio decoupling approach, and two methods of measuring fossil fuel use, i.e., domestic material consumption (DMC) and material footprint (MF), are applied. Groups of countries with similar decoupling patterns are identified through the k-medoids method. Next, the relationship between these patterns and the level of countries’ development is examined. The results reveal that using different measures of fossil fuel use yields different processes of decoupling economic growth from fossil fuel use. In particular, when the DMC indicator is considered, relative decoupling is observed in most analysed cases. When the MF indicator is applied, the decoupling states of individual countries change more frequently. Finally, in highly developed countries, absolute decoupling is frequently observed, although only when the DMC indicator is used.

Agriculture and Green Economy for Environmental Kuznets Curve Adoption in Developing Countries: Insights from Rwanda

Development and climate change are crucial global concerns with significant contrasts between developed and developing nations. Contrary to several developing countries, Rwanda opted for a green growth policy pathway while struggling with its economic emergence through the alternative green sectors, including agriculture. No research has yet been conducted on the choice’s performance on emission sequestration or the country’s income, allowing the formulation of strategies accordingly. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), mostly adopted by developed countries, is applied for the Rwandese scenario to verify its adoption in developing countries. The within and between effects of the agricultural sector (AGRc) and gross domestic products (GDPc) on CO2 emission (CO2) are examined with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration and coupling methods in January 2008−December 2018 period. Results confirm the short-run and long-run cointegration relationships of variables, where CO2-GDPc and CO2-AGRc are relatively decoupling and absolute decoupling, respectively. The EKC adoption to CO2-GDPc relationship, and the significant negative causality from GDPc and AGRc to CO2, are confirmed. The performance resulted from the country’s environment conservation policies, and Rwanda is a learning example as a developing country. However, the green economy through the agro-economy is at a low level and should be reinforced.

Are green cities sustainable? A degrowth critique of sustainable urban development in Copenhagen

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a case-based degrowth critique of sustainable urban development strategies. Copenhagen, European Green Capital in 2014, is considered a role model of planning for sustainability. Does this hold in a degrowth perspective? Sustainable development assumes that environmental impacts can decline while the economy grows. Degrowth maintains that such a process of absolute decoupling is infeasible. Analyzing Copenhagen’s planning documents in this perspective, I find three factors that make the city’s sustainability strategy ineffective for ecological sustainability. First, Copenhagen’s strategy for climate neutrality is based on externalization: only emissions produced locally are counted. Meanwhile, emissions produced outside of the city for products and services consumed locally remain high. Secondly, policies focus on the efficiency of activities rather than their overall impact: efficiency gains are considered reductions of impact, but really mean slower growth of impact. Finally, sustainability measures are proposed as a ‘green fix’, to increase competitiveness and promote economic growth, leading to increased consumption and impact. Analyzing the critical case of Copenhagen in a degrowth perspective, sheds doubts on sustainable urban development, but does not imply the rejection of all its typical planning measures. This induces reflections on how these results can contribute to a degrowth-oriented urban planning.

Material Consumption and Carbon Emissions Associated with the Infrastructure Construction of 34 Cities in Northeast China

Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic growth along with a rapid increase in urbanization and living standards, leading to a boom in infrastructure demand. A large part of China’s newly constructed infrastructure is through urban construction; thus, cities have become a major source of material consumption and carbon emissions. Understanding the relationship between material consumption, carbon emissions, and the economic growth of cities is key to ensuring that the construction of infrastructure satisfies the needs for both economic development and dematerialization. In this study, we first accounted for material consumption and the carbon emissions of infrastructure construction of 34 cities in Northeast China and characterized spatial and temporal changes from 2010–2017. The material use and carbon emissions of infrastructure construction declined by 34.6% and 30.2% during this period. Specifically, material consumption decreased from 305.2 million tonnes to 199.6 million tonnes, and carbon emissions decreased from 77.7 million tonnes to 54.3 million tonnes. Furthermore, we used a decoupling indicator to evaluate the decoupling of material consumption or carbon emissions from GDP in these cities. We found that most cities have achieved the absolute decoupling of material consumption and carbon emissions from GDP over the study period. Finally, we proposed several policy recommendations for promoting the sustainable development of the infrastructure of cities. To ensure that cities realize low-carbon urbanization, policymakers need to promote modular buildings and low-emission construction materials. This paper also serves as a practical reference for the improvement of relevant materials and carbon emissions management strategies for other developing regions.

Digitalization and the Decoupling Debate: Can ICT Help to Reduce Environmental Impacts While the Economy Keeps Growing?

Digitalization can increase resource and energy productivities. However, the production and usage of information and communication technologies (ICTs) require materials and energy, and the application of ICTs fosters economic growth. This paper examines whether digitalization helps or hinders an absolute decoupling of environmental throughput from economic growth. The paper combines the literature on “green IT” and “ICT for green” with studies on decoupling, i.e., the relationship between economic growth, technological change, and environmental throughput. The paper identifies several strains of the decoupling debate and connects them to the environmental implications of digitalization. We focus on the relation between digitalization and (1) the question of finite non-renewable energies, (2) the environmental Kuznets curve, (3) the role of energy consumption for economic growth, (4) efficiency improvements vis-à-vis rebound effects, and (5) the role of general purpose technologies for resource and energy demand. We find that the empirical basis regarding digitalization’s relation to these four aspects is still weak and hence, further research is needed. Comparing the mitigating and the aggravating impacts of digitalization, we conclude that a more active political and societal shaping of the process of digitalization is needed to make ICT work for global environmental sustainability.

Decoupling economic growth from emissions: the case of policies promoting resource substitution

The relationship between the economy and the environment is not straightforward and is influenced by a multitude of factors. Ideally, economic growth would not damage environmental quality and environmental protection would not hinder economic growth. Achieving this decoupling often requires environmental policy, but the analysis of specific policy instruments and their necessary levels to achieve it is rare. In this paper, we use a stylized equilibrium model to explore distinct policy instruments under which relative decoupling and absolute decoupling between economic growth and emissions occur. In our model, final-goods production uses polluting (non-renewable) and non-polluting (renewable) resources. The government taxes emissions and subsidizes renewables production. In the empirical application, we focus on the case of electricity generation. Results show that, with a growing subsidy, relative decoupling exists. Achieving absolute decoupling is harder, but it occurs for a certain interval of the subsidy growth rate. For that purpose, the choice of the tax and subsidy growth rates is more important than the choice of the initial levels for these instruments. The choice of the subsidy growth rate indicates the prioritization between the economy and the environment. A lower subsidy growth rate favors the environment, while a higher one favors the economy. The tax growth rate dictates the distance between the output growth rate and the emissions growth rate. The higher the tax growth rate, the higher the difference between them. In sum, the government can decide between attaining higher output growth rates, higher emissions decreasing rates, or an intermediate situation.

Recent experiences and divergent pathways to transport decoupling

This study examines the transport decoupling pathways of the 16 selected countries from 1990 to 2015. Transport carbon emissions (i.e. decarbonisation) and road traffic fatalities (i.e. defatalisation) have been chosen as proxies of environmental and social decoupling respectively. Real GNI in purchasing power parity (based to 2011) is used to reflect the decoupling experience. To frame the transport decoupling pathways, we have applied three decision rules and assigned rankings to the eight decoupling categories identified for richer and poorer countries. Each country has five data points for the ranking (five time periods in the 25-year horizon), meaning that a total of 80 data points have been identified and mapped. Four types of decoupling pathways are derived: Improving, Stable 1, Stable 2 and Unstable. Decoupling policies have then been extracted and analysed to identify the different approaches used in each pathway type. The results show that (i) there is no single pathway to transport decoupling, meaning that a wide range of policies have been adopted by individual countries, (ii) most pathways belong to the ‘Stable’ categories with mild fluctuations in the ranks over time and (iii) defatalisation is more successful than decarbonisation in achieving absolute decoupling. The value of this paper is in its novel methodology that has been used to identify the different pathways for decoupling, its application to 16 key countries, and the use of a database that extends over 5 time periods. It makes a clear contribution to our understanding of the complexity of decoupling, the different pathways adopted, and the difficulties of achieving substantial reductions in transport carbon emissions and traffic fatalities.

An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU

The Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment.

Regional disparities in decoupling economic growth and steel stocks: Forty years of provincial evidence in China

Human-made material stocks promote the economic prosperity, while the consumption, maintenance, and operation of them have led to adverse environmental impacts. Decoupling materials stocks from economic growth is a key strategy for relieving environmental pressures and achieving sustainable development. China's unprecedented development offers a unique opportunity for uncovering the relationship between in-use stocks and economic growth. In this study, we analyzed the regional disparity of in-use steel stocks estimated by bottom-up accounting method during 1978–2018 in 31 provinces in mainland China, explored the stocks productivity on provincial and regional scale, and conducted a decoupling analysis of in-use steel stocks with economic growth. The results showed that there was a huge disparity among the provincial total steel stocks, per-capita steel stocks, and stocks density. Some provinces, e.g. Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, that had the highest stocks density had comparatively lower per-capita steel stocks and total steel stocks, indicating higher share of in-use steel stocks and lower material intensive economic structure. In-use steel stocks in China showed no clear signs of saturation or flatten off pattern although their growth rate declined recently. An increase in steel stocks productivity was found during 1978–2018, which means relative decoupling of in-use steel stocks from economic growth, but still far away from absolute decoupling. The dematerialization pattern revealed in this study deepens our understanding of material-economy interactions. Policy implications for dematerialization transition should focus on developing compact cities, prolonging the lifespan of products, and advancing technological development.

India can increase its mitigation ambition: An analysis based on historical evidence of decoupling between emission and economic growth

This article aims to present historical rate of decoupling and based on that determine the scope for India to increase its mitigation beyond the NDC commitment. Empirical evidence on nature and rate of decoupling between energy related emission and economic growth for the period 1990–91 to 2012–13 in India is presented. In addition to estimating the magnitude of decoupling elasticity, decomposition analysis is also applied to understand how the four factors: activity growth, energy intensity change, structural change and fuel mix change, are driving the change in emission in India. Decoupling elasticity and Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) methods are used for decomposition. The results indicate presence of relative decoupling in India. The industrial sector leads among the four sectors -agriculture, industry, services and power generation in achieving this relative decoupling, mostly through improvement in energy efficiency and some structural changes. Results show that even in the business as usual scenario if India acts upon individual sector level mitigation potentials, it has the potential to raise mitigation ambition beyond current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) without adversely impacting economic growth. With continued high share of coal in the energy mix it is going to be difficult to achieve absolute decoupling.

A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights

Strategies toward ambitious climate targets usually rely on the concept of ‘decoupling’; that is, they aim at promoting economic growth while reducing the use of natural resources and GHG emissions. GDP growth coinciding with absolute reductions in emissions or resource use is denoted as ‘absolute decoupling’, as opposed to ‘relative decoupling’, where resource use or emissions increase less so than does GDP. Based on the bibliometric mapping in part I (Wiedenhofer et al, Environ. Res. Lett. 15 063002), we synthesize the evidence emerging from the selected 835 peer-reviewed articles. We evaluate empirical studies of decoupling related to final/useful energy, exergy, use of material resources, as well as CO2 and total GHG emissions. We find that relative decoupling is frequent for material use as well as GHG and CO2 emissions but not for useful exergy, a quality-based measure of energy use. Primary energy can be decoupled from GDP largely to the extent to which the conversion of primary energy to useful exergy is improved. Examples of absolute long-term decoupling are rare, but recently some industrialized countries have decoupled GDP from both production- and, weaklier, consumption-based CO2 emissions. We analyze policies or strategies in the decoupling literature by classifying them into three groups: (1) Green growth, if sufficient reductions of resource use or emissions were deemed possible without altering the growth trajectory. (2) Degrowth, if reductions of resource use or emissions were given priority over GDP growth. (3) Others, e.g. if the role of energy for GDP growth was analyzed without reference to climate change mitigation. We conclude that large rapid absolute reductions of resource use and GHG emissions cannot be achieved through observed decoupling rates, hence decoupling needs to be complemented by sufficiency-oriented strategies and strict enforcement of absolute reduction targets. More research is needed on interdependencies between wellbeing, resources and emissions.

Analysis of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in China

This study examines the nexus of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption (EC) and gross domestic products (GDP), using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach of co-integration and error-correction model (ECM) for the period 1971–2015. The aim of the research is to i) examine the relationship between CO2 and GDP as “cross-coupling, relative decoupling, or absolute decoupling,” and validate the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis; ii) detect causality between CO2 emissions, EC, and GDP, and scrutinize their impacts. The ARDL results confirm a long-run and short-run co-integration relationship between the variables. The relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP is “relatively decoupling,” and the EKC exists in China. Its CO2 emissions are more explained by EC and contribute twofold of GDP. In the long run, there was significant negative causality from CO2 emission and GDP to EC. This indicates Chinese economic development structure should be re-designed towards energy-saving and decarbonized economic structure. Moreover, the central and provincial governments of China should synchronize optimal energy utilization and green economic structure to mitigate environmental deterioration and climate change.

The capital load of global material footprints

Despite calls for large-scale reductions in material use and efforts to initiate a “circular economy” that promotes recycling and reuse, a limited decoupling between overall resource extraction and economic growth has been historically found. This is particularly true if resource use is measured with the life-cycle or consumption-based material footprint (MF) indicator that allocates material extraction to final goods and services. However, this indicator treats capital goods as final products rather than part of the production process. In this paper, we introduce the capital-augmented material footprint (CAMF), a new indicator of material use that includes all the materials embedded in capital goods. Results for 49 countries and regions over the period 1995–2015 show that for mineral use, about 50–60% of the total footprint of final consumption is embodied in capital goods, whereas for biomass, the figure is around 10%. The largest increase in material requirements was observed in non-OECD countries and in service sectors in general. More countries achieve relative and absolute decoupling when using the CAMF as indicator of material use. Our results underpin the need for comprehensive indicators when assessing options to decrease the impacts of consumption.

Drivers toward a Low-Carbon Electricity System in China's Provinces.

Decarbonization of the power sector is one of the most important efforts to meet the climate mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement. China's power sector is of global importance, accounting for ∼25% of global electricity production in 2015. The carbon intensity of China's electricity is still much higher than the global average, but the country has made important strides toward a low-carbon transition based on two main pillars: improvement of energy efficiency and decreasing the share of fossil fuels. By applying a decoupling indicator, our study shows that 21 provinces achieved a "relative decoupling" of carbon emissions and electricity production and the remaining nine provinces achieved "absolute decoupling" between 2005 and 2015. We updated China's emission factors based on the most recent data by also considering the quality of imported coal and compared our results with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change coefficients to show the sensitivity of results and the potential error. Our decomposition analysis shows that improvement of energy efficiency was the dominant driver for decarbonization of 16 provincial power sectors, while the access to low-carbon electricity and substitution of natural gas for coal and oil further accelerated their decarbonization.

The Dangers of Decoupling: Earth System Crisis and the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’

AbstractThe question of whether global capitalism can resolve the earth system crisis rests on the (im)possibility of ‘absolute decoupling’: whether or not economic growth can continue indefinitely as total environmental impacts shrink. Ecomodernists and other techno‐optimists argue for the feasibility of absolute decoupling, whereas degrowth advocates show that it is likely to be neither feasible in principle nor in the timeframe needed to ward off ecological tipping points. While primarily supporting the degrowth perspective, I will suggest that the ecomodernists have a wildcard in their pocket that hasn’t been systematically addressed by degrowth advocates. This is the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’, which refers to convergent innovations in biotechnology, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and other developments. However, I will argue that while these innovations may enable some degree of absolute decoupling, they will also intensify emerging risks in the domains of biosecurity, cybersecurity, and state securitization. Overall, these technologies will not only place unprecedented destructive power in the hands of non‐state actors but will also empower and incentivize states to create a global security regime with unprecedented surveillance and force mobilization capacities. This reinforces the conclusion that mainstream environmental policies based on decoupling should be reconsidered and supplanted by alternative policy trajectories based on material‐energetic degrowth, redistribution, and technological deceleration.

THE HARMONIZATION OF ECO-EFFICIENCY STANDARDS: AN ANALYSIS ON THE ENERGY ENTERPRISES OF THE G7 GROUP AND THE EMERGING E7 COUNTRIES

Attempts are being made to harmonize the many standards of business practice that exist outside of financial reporting, but they are limited either to a single industry or to the views of individual researchers. In this article we have harmonized international standards of eco-efficiency, compiled on the basis of multi-stakeholder approach and tested the set of indicators developed for the energy companies of the Group of Seven (G7) and the Emerging Seven (E7). We analyzed the non-financial reports of 56 companies from the global reporting initiative database for the period 2015-2016 and plotted the decoupling of value added and environmental pollution. The study found that G7 energy companies do not adhere to the concept of sustainable development, while for E7 companies there is an absolute decoupling except for greenhouse gas emissions. We come to conclusion that socially responsible companies are able to gain competitive advantages in the framework of sustainable development, provided the transparency of business.

Decoupling of environmental pressure and economic growth: evidence from high-income and nuclear-dependent countries.

This paper proposes a three-step process, based on the definition of absolute decoupling (AbsDec), to analyze the role of nuclear energy in the absolute decoupling between environmental pressures (including Energy resource use and CO2Emissions) and Economic growth (3-E) during the period 1987-2016. First, we select the top four Nuclear-Dependent Countries (4-NDC), including France, Belgium, Sweden, and Switzerland, from high-income economies and the USA as a sample (i.e., 5-country). Second, we provide compound annual growth rate (CAGR) statistics for all relevant variables in each country. Third, we assess the Carbon Kuznets Curve (CKC) and investigate the dynamic interactions between 3-E by using Lotka-Volterra ecosystem model. For the 5-country, we find that the CAGR of GDP is positive, the CAGRs of CO2 emissions, CO2 intensity, and energy intensity are negative, the panel CKC exists, and the projected CAGRs of CO2 emissions are negative between 2017 and 2025. For the USA, a commensalism of energy-led growth and an amensalism of emissions-limited growth exist. For the 4-NDC, neutralisms between 3-E exist. The aggregated results indicate that the 4-NDC seem to have achieved an AbsDec between 3-E, the USA appears to achieve an AbsDec between economic growth and emissions while undergoing a relative, and perhaps absolute, decoupling between 3-E. The findings can infer that nuclear power is one of the most important energy sources for achieving absolute decoupling and genuinely sustainable development. The policy implication is that measures to reduce energy consumption and control CO2 emissions may not significantly impair economic growth in countries that rely on nuclear power.

The trends in bioeconomy development in the European Union: Exploiting capacity and productivity measures based on the land footprint approach

Bioeconomy comprises a novel approach towards economic development in the European Union (EU). Its development should be confined by the planetary boundaries (biocapacity). We integrate the land footprint approach related to production and land biocapacity to assess the trends in capacity and productivity of bioeconomy in the EU countries throughout 1997–2013. Results show that the level of production-based land footprint and land biocapacity vary across the EU countries. However, Belgium is the sole case where production-based land footprint exceeds land biocapacity. The highest possibilities for development of the bioeconomy sector are observed for Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Slovakia. Meanwhile, Estonia, Denmark and the United Kingdom have almost achieved the level of land biocapacity. Considering the catch up growth rate, almost all of the EU countries (with exception of Greece, France, Italy and Romania) show increasing footprint-to-biocapacity ratios with the highest values for Estonia and Latvia. The significant absolute decoupling between production-based land footprint and agricultural value added is observed in Denmark. Meanwhile, Italy, Lithuania and Spain show relative decoupling. Thus, these countries should pay particular attention to productivity improvements in forestry and agriculture. This study contributes to setting the targets for bioeconomy policy that can support the sustainable and efficient use of biological resources.

Europe's mining innovation trends and their contribution to the sustainable development goals: Blind spots and strong points

For millennia, mining was not only a source of great economic wealth, but also of social and environmental concern. It, therefore, was a focus of the business and public policy sustainable development agenda for many years. Thus, many international programmes, such as the International Council on Mining & Metals (ICMM) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), tried to capture this concept by developing frameworks to guide in their implementation by the mining sector. However, there is scarce knowledge about the mining sector's contribution to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) - the broadly accepted and politically legitimised post-2015 development agenda. This paper investigates the extent to which mining innovations that are employed, or that will be employed in the future, can make a contribution to achieving the SDGs in Europe. To this end, the authors identified current and future mining Innovation Concepts and challenges, as well as designed an SDG impact framework for identifying the impacts of innovation, concluding that almost all innovation concepts show repercussions on individual SDGs. This indicates that innovation concepts not only depict synergies between the SDGS, but also trade-offs or imbalances between individual SDGs. Further research is required on the overall environmental impact of technological innovations, the implications for absolute de-coupling of environmental impacts and economic performance, and the possibility of rebound effects.

Assessing the decoupling of economic growth from environmental impacts in the European Union: A consumption-based approach.

Pursuing a responsible and sustainable development, the United Nations urged to decouple economic growth from environmental impacts. Several European Union (EU) policies have been implemented towards such goal. Although multiple authors have evaluated the decoupling of the economic growth from the resource use or environmental concerns, the environmental assessment mostly focused on pressures rather than impacts, and used single indicators assumed to be a proxy of the overall effects on the environment. Furthermore, no studies were found using a process-based life cycle approach to quantify the environmental impacts of consumption. To solve such research gap, this paper assesses the decoupling in the EU focusing on potential environmental impacts, complementing a production-based approach with two options for accounting for the impacts of consumption. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the decoupling of the economic growth (in terms of Gross Domestic Product) from the environmental impacts due to EU-28 consumption, assessed by means of life cycle assessment (LCA). The decoupling is then assessed in impact terms rather than limited to pressures by using the Environmental Footprint (EF2017) indicators, which allows assessing 16 different impacts. The Consumption Footprint indicator quantified the environmental impacts of EU apparent consumption, including the territorial impacts (Domestic Footprint) and the embodied impacts in both imports and exports (Trade Footprint). The inventory of pressures for the trade component is compiled either with a bottom-up approach (process-based LCA of representative traded goods) or a top-down approach (input-output-based LCA). Methodological aspects influencing the decoupling assessment and the resulting outputs are presented and discussed. According to the results, the environmental impacts of EU-28 consumption showed decoupling during the last decades (2005–2014), between relative to absolute decoupling depending on the inventory modeling approach taken. Some countries showed higher decoupling levels than others displaying a heterogeneous map of EU-28 decoupling, which was led by acidification, particulate matter, land use and eutrophication impacts. Notwithstanding current limitations, the assessment of decoupling using consumption-based environmental indicators is very promising for supporting policy-making towards addressing the actual impacts driven by the EU production and consumption system.