Abstract

This article aims to present historical rate of decoupling and based on that determine the scope for India to increase its mitigation beyond the NDC commitment. Empirical evidence on nature and rate of decoupling between energy related emission and economic growth for the period 1990–91 to 2012–13 in India is presented. In addition to estimating the magnitude of decoupling elasticity, decomposition analysis is also applied to understand how the four factors: activity growth, energy intensity change, structural change and fuel mix change, are driving the change in emission in India. Decoupling elasticity and Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) methods are used for decomposition. The results indicate presence of relative decoupling in India. The industrial sector leads among the four sectors -agriculture, industry, services and power generation in achieving this relative decoupling, mostly through improvement in energy efficiency and some structural changes. Results show that even in the business as usual scenario if India acts upon individual sector level mitigation potentials, it has the potential to raise mitigation ambition beyond current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) without adversely impacting economic growth. With continued high share of coal in the energy mix it is going to be difficult to achieve absolute decoupling.

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