Absolute Decoupling Research Articles

Circular Economy in Action: Examining the Decoupling of Economic Growth and Material Use across EU Countries

The circular economy (CE) is a transformative approach that not only preserves and reuses resources but also redefines how economic growth can be achieved in a more sustainable manner. The aim of the paper is to assess whether economic growth in EU countries can be decoupled from resource use through CE practices. Using data from Eurostat spanning 2010-2022, we analyze key indicators such as Raw material consumption (RMC), Gross domestic product (GDP) and Circular material use rate (MUR). We apply correlation analysis and decoupling analysis to assess the efficacy of CE practices in achieving sustainable economic growth. The results indicate significant variability among EU countries in their ability to decouple economic growth from resource consumption. Some countries demonstrated strong absolute decoupling, indicating successful CE integration, while others faced challenges with expansive negative decoupling. The study underscores the necessity for tailored strategies to enhance CE implementation across diverse economic contexts within the EU. Keywords: decoupling, circular economy, raw material, circular material, GDP, EU countries

Towards carbon neutrality: The decoupling effect of industrial restructuring and non-fossil energy substitution on carbon emissions

China's carbon neutrality target requires early carbon decoupling of economic growth. Utilizing the input-output and programming technique, we investigate the carbon mitigation potential of industrial restructuring along with the substitution of non-fossil energy for electric production. Given the constraints of manufacturing stabilization and employment volatility magnitude, this paper finds that industrial restructuring can mitigate carbon emissions by 7.47 %. Besides, non-fossil energy substitution in electric production can strengthen the inhibiting effect, reducing carbon emissions from 7.47 % (currently about 31.5 % for non-fossil power generation) to 28.99 % (about 80 % in the future). This paper also simulates several scenarios for growth rates and estimates the prospective carbon reduction for the fourteenth Five-Year Plan in China. We indicate that the rising share of non-fossil energy is the linchpin to reducing energy-related carbon emissions, which can achieve absolute decoupling if the share of non-fossil energy in power generation reaches 67.1 % under different growth scenarios. This paper argues that carbon-based performance indicators, e.g., carbon intensity and carbon emissions, are more appropriate for local bureaucrats than energy-based ones. We provide valuable implications for the carbon decoupling path.

Exploring the nexuses between carbon dioxide emissions, material footprints and human development: An empirical study of 151 countries

In order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, it is necessary to actively promote a coordinated and balanced relationship between carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e), material footprints (MF) and human development, based on the economic and social development stages of different countries and their material resource endowments. However, the existing research results lack cross-country comparisons and overly focus on the single conclusion of quantifying decoupling while ignoring the impact of coupling coordination nexus. Thus, this study comprehensively evaluated the nexus between CO2e, MF, and human development index (HDI) in 151 countries from 1990 to 2019 based on the modified coupling coordination degree model and the improved decoupling index model. The results show that, both the global MF per capita and HDI have maintained an increasing trend, and the MF per capita has been increasing significantly faster than the HDI. The trend of CO2e per capita is slowly dropping, with very high HDI countries being the main contributors. Besides, global regional differences in CO2e per capita and MF per capita are still expanding. Worldwide differences in per unit of CO2e and per unit of MF for HDI variation are narrowing. Furtherly, there is a more general but short-lived trend of absolute decoupling for very high HDI and low HDI countries, while medium HDI countries show a significant trend of coupling. By combining the endowment characteristics of some typical countries, it can be observed that the net fossil energy importing countries with higher HDI have high degree of coupling coordination, but gradually evolve towards the state of relative decoupling. There is still a significant trend of recoupling between the MF and HDI in the net fossil energy exporting countries with higher HDI, but CO2e is gradually evolving towards decoupling. The coupling coordination state is deepening in some low HDI countries. Due to the huge differences in national endowment characteristics and development stages, targeted energy conservation and emission reduction strategies are important for achieving coordinated development between CO2e, MF and HDI.

Studying regional low-carbon development: A case study of Sichuan Province in China.

The unavoidable option for socially sustainable development is a low-carbon economy. One of the essential steps for China to attain high-quality development is reducing carbon emissions. It is necessary to realize low-carbon development in Sichuan, as it is not only an important economic zone but also an ecological protected area. The concurrent relationship among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth was examined in this study using the Tapio decoupling indicator, and the factors affecting energy consumption and carbon emissions in Sichuan were broken down using the logarithmic mean Divisia indicator (LMDI). The findings demonstrate a fundamental relative decoupling relationship between Sichuan's energy use and carbon emissions. Analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2020 shows distinct patterns. From 2005 to 2012, in 2014, and from 2016 to 2020, the relationship between energy use and carbon emissions was relatively decoupled, with decoupling values ranging between 0 and 1. Absolute decoupling occurred in specific years: 2010, from 2013 to 2018, and in 2020. These periods are characterized by economic growth alongside reductions in carbon emissions. Factors affecting energy consumption and carbon emissions were consistently analyzed, showing similar impacts throughout the study periods. We find that population and economic growth are the main driving forces of these effects. The effects of energy intensity and industrial structure mainly play restraining roles, and the latter has a slightly weaker effect than the former.

Is Norway on the pathway to green growth? Evidence on decoupling between GDP and environmental footprints

AbstractProponents of green growth argue that technological advancements and price signals can decouple economic growth from environmental impact through resource substitution and enhanced efficiency. In this research, we investigate the extent to which economic growth in Norway is decoupling from three key indicators of environmental pressure: energy use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and material consumption. Our findings show efficiency improvements across all of these indicators, but no absolute decoupling for any of them, and less so, a sufficient absolute decoupling to meet global sustainability targets. Despite the prevalent discourse surrounding a purported ‘green shift’, the overall environmental pressure within Norway is still on an upward trajectory. Mounting evidence regarding the absence of sufficient absolute decoupling suggests that the time may be ripe for high‐income nations like Norway to transcend policy focus on green growth and engage in transitions towards a post‐growth economy.

Greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in Morocco: A decoupling analysis

This study aims to provide insights into the decoupling of GDP growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Morocco, a developing country with the ambitious goals of reducing GHG and strongly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. The Engle-Granger cointegration method was used in addition to the Tapio elastic analysis based on annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The cointegration test indicates a significant long-term relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and Gross Domestic Product with a coefficient equal to 0.85. On the other hand, Tapio's decoupling index method presents mixed results both by pollutant and by time period. Nevertheless, total greenhouse gas emissions, with a decoupling index valued at 0.7, exhibit a weak impact decoupling throughout the entire sample period wherein emissions continue to grow at a lower rate than the Gross Domestic Product. The findings are coherent with the view that more aggressive carbon pricing initiatives (CPI) policies will likely be necessary to achieve the ambitious goals set by the Moroccan government to achieve absolute decoupling.

Degrowth attitudes among entrepreneurs hinder fast venture scaling

AbstractThe degrowth paradigm has gained popularity in the sustainability discourse in recent years. Questioning the absolute decoupling of economic growth from environmental degradation, degrowth proponents suggest downscaling production and consumption to reduce resource extraction and energy consumption. However, this seems to be at odds with conventional wisdom about entrepreneurship. Thus, our research aims to shed light on the implications of the degrowth discourse on entrepreneurship. We answer how degrowth attitudes among (sustainable) entrepreneurs are associated with decision‐making on scaling strategies for their ventures. Differentiating between scaling fast and scaling slow strategies, we show that a degrowth attitude is negatively associated with scaling fast strategies, whether entrepreneurs consider themselves sustainable or not. However, sustainable entrepreneurship is positively associated with scaling slow strategies. Furthermore, we show that the development level of the economy an entrepreneur is active in is an essential factor in the decision‐making on scaling strategies.

Realizing synergy between pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in industrial parks: From model development to tool application

Promoting the synergy between carbon mitigation and pollution reduction (SCMPR) is pivotal for global green and sustainable development. Industrial parks, as crucial economic hubs, require effective SCMPR strategies considering land, economy, and the environment, but present research seldom proposes methods that consider multiple factors and stakeholders together and fit for practical application. Given this, this study establishes a multi-factor industrial structural adjustment model for industrial parks incorporating scenario analysis to unveil optimal adjustment schemes and then develops an efficient spreadsheet tool based on the model. The model results convincingly fulfill SCMPR requirement after applying to a typical industrial park: After adjustments, 50 main industries in the park can achieve SCMPR targets, with carbon intensity and total phosphorous intensity predicted to achieve relative decoupling and other regular pollutant emissions anticipated to absolute decoupling by 2030. The proposed optimal scheme indicates that wastewater, waste gas, and solid waste volumes in the park will rise by 39%–54% by 2025 and 76%–113% from 2025 to 2030, and then translate into a 50% increase in waste treatment costs by 2025 and a subsequent 98% increase by 2030. The carbon intensity of the park will decrease from 154 tonnes of CO2 per million Chinese Yuan in 2020 to 94 in 2030. The results culminate in three strategic recommendations for industrial parks: (1) prioritize reducing total pollutant emissions and carbon intensity, (2) customize carbon mitigation and pollution reduction strategies for each industry, and (3) regulate material and energy flows at multiple levels. This study can provide a pragmatic tool for industrial parks to make science-based decision-making toward dual carbon goals.

Multisectoral water‑carbon pressures and economic benefits in China: An embodied perspective driven by consumption

Developing nations encounter considerable resource and environmental pressures, exhibiting diverse levels of decoupling relationships between resource-environment consumption and economic performance in different sectors. Nevertheless, there has been insufficient scrutiny from the perspective of embodied water‑carbon within the national economic system, particularly long-term analysis. This study proposes a three-stage analytical approach integrating measurement, decoupling, and decomposition modules to track such pressures, relationships and driving factors. Within this framework, a water‑carbon extended input-output model is constructed to quantify the embodied water‑carbon structure and inter-sectoral transfers between 2010 and 2020. The main findings are: a) Over the past decade, the composite water‑carbon pressure index of the energy sector has increased from 2.94 to 3.24, making it the only sector experiencing water‑carbon dual pressure in China. The service sector exhibits the lowest embodied water‑carbon pressure, boasting an average pressure index of 0.24. b) The OECD decoupling factor between embodied water consumption and economic growth in the entire national economic system increased from 0.37 to 0.40, achieving a transition from relative decoupling to absolute decoupling. However, a significant coupling relationship persists concerning CO2 emissions. c) Technological innovation primarily drives the decoupling of embodied water consumption in most sectors. Structural driving factors play an increasingly significant role in decoupling multisectoral carbon emissions and economic benefits. Strengthening technological innovation to improve multisectoral water use efficiency is still the most effective way to promote deep decoupling of water consumption within the industrial system. Achieving deep decoupling of carbon emissions necessitates both short-term technological innovation such as low-carbon process modification and long-term structural transformation such as green industrial restructuring. Differentiated findings can help identify potential sustainable development strategies for China's industrial system under resource and environmental constraints.

How can small and medium-sized cities differentiate their carbon peaks?

China's ‘dual carbon’ strategy is of strategic importance in leading global climate governance and promoting China's high-quality and green economic development. Cities are the centres of human activities. However, these are also places where high energy consumption and high carbon emissions are concentrated. This study selected data from 192 small and medium-sized cities in mainland China for the period 2000–2020. It classified these into seven categories using the K-means clustering method, calculated the decoupling status of different types of small and medium-sized cities based on the Tapio decoupling index, and analysed the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in various types of small and medium-sized cities based on the EKC curve theory. Finally, the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model was used to classify and predict the time required to achieve carbon peaking for seven types of small and medium-sized cities. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The development status of small and medium-sized cities shows a ‘geese echelon pattern’. New dynamic small and medium-sized urban areas may reach peak carbon emissions first, while resource-based small and medium-sized urban areas may be the last to do so. (2) The decoupling of carbon emissions from industrial development in small and medium-sized cities has not been completed. This manifests mainly through the states of declining decoupling, absolute decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. (3) A significant inverted U-shaped relationship exists between economic development and carbon emissions in these cities. (4) These cities may have the disadvantage of premature or excessive de-industrialisation. Additionally, these generally have an inefficient and expansionary economic development status. Therefore, this study contended for a more robust integration of a radical political economy and ecological economics to support the development of such cities in China. The paper proposes differentiated development paths and fundamental recommendations for small and medium-sized cities in the implementation of the ‘double carbon’ strategy. The intention is to provide theoretical guidance and implications for promoting green and low-carbon development in urban and rural areas and for the early achievement of the strategy in China.

Inconsistent definitions of GDP: Implications for estimates of decoupling

Efforts to assess the possibilities for decoupling economic growth from resource use and negative environmental impacts have examined their historical relationship, with varying and inconclusive results. This paper shows that ambiguities in the historical measurement arising from definitional changes to GDP are sufficiently large to affect the results. I review the history of structural revisions to GDP using the example of the United States, and on international comparisons of purchasing power parity, and compare decoupling results using GDP vintages reported between 1994 and 2021 for most countries. Between vintages, 10–15% of countries switch between relative decoupling and recoupling from energy or materials on decadal intervals, and up to as many countries as decouple absolutely in an older vintage stop or newly start absolutely decoupling in the newer vintage. GDP vintages also affect environmental Kuznets curve results on absolute decoupling in Grossman and Krueger's seminal paper and accelerate the International Energy Agency's annual global decline in energy intensity by up to −0.2 percentage points. Inconsistencies in economic measurement introduce ambiguity into historical decoupling evidence and model projections into the future. To advance debate, rigorous reporting and sharing of data vintage for subsequent comparison and replication are urgently needed.

An Integrated Approach to Analyze the Progress of Developing Economies in Asia toward the Sustainable Development Goals

This study endeavored to analyze the progress made to meet the Sustainable Development Goals in terms of resource use, sustainable production and consumption, and the triple planetary crisis (i.e., climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollutant emissions) at the national and regional levels in Asia. The study highlighted that the progress toward sustainable consumption and production is still not sufficient to meet the ambitious national targets. An urgent need for a comprehensive approach to address climate change, biodiversity loss, pollutant emissions, and resource use has been ascertained. China’s greenhouse gas emissions have surged tremendously. India is also endeavoring to decouple emissions from growth via renewable energy. Vulnerable Pakistan seeks emission reduction and financial aid. Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam outline emission reduction strategies. Land use change emerges as a key biodiversity loss driver, stressing the need for sustainable land policies and conservation. Material consumption highlights the call for production optimization, circular economies, and innovative technology. Energy’s role in development requires decoupling from growth through efficiency, renewables, and eco-friendly paths. Freshwater needs careful management for sustainability, and international collaboration and policy reform are urged for global water use efficiency. Decoupling trends between growth, resource use, and environmental impact show a complex pattern, with the feasibility of absolute decoupling limited by growth interdependence.

Is green growth happening? An empirical analysis of achieved versus Paris-compliant CO2–GDP decoupling in high-income countries

Scientists have raised concerns about whether high-income countries, with their high per-capita CO2 emissions, can decarbonise fast enough to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement if they continue to pursue aggregate economic growth. Over the past decade, some countries have reduced their CO2 emissions while increasing their gross domestic product (absolute decoupling). Politicians and media have hailed this as green growth. In this empirical study, we aimed to assess whether these achievements are consistent with the Paris Agreement, and whether Paris-compliant decoupling is within reach. We developed and implemented a novel approach to assess whether decoupling achievements in high-income countries are consistent with the Paris climate and equity goals. We identified 11 high-income countries that achieved absolute decoupling between 2013 and 2019. We assessed the achieved consumption-based CO2 emission reductions and decoupling rates of these countries against Paris-compliant rates, defined here as rates consistent with national fair-shares of the remaining global carbon budgets for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1·5°C or 1·7°C (representing the lower [1·5°C] and upper [well below 2°C] bounds of the Paris target). The emission reductions that high-income countries achieved through absolute decoupling fall far short of Paris-compliant rates. At the achieved rates, these countries would on average take more than 220 years to reduce their emissions by 95%, emitting 27 times their remaining 1·5°C fair-shares in the process. To meet their 1·5°C fair-shares alongside continued economic growth, decoupling rates would on average need to increase by a factor of ten by 2025. The decoupling rates achieved in high-income countries are inadequate for meeting the climate and equity commitments of the Paris Agreement and cannot legitimately be considered green. If green is to be consistent with the Paris Agreement, then high-income countries have not achieved green growth, and are very unlikely to be able to achieve it in the future. To achieve Paris-compliant emission reductions, high-income countries will need to pursue post-growth demand-reduction strategies, reorienting the economy towards sufficiency, equity, and human wellbeing, while also accelerating technological change and efficiency improvements. None.

Are Energy Reductions Compatible with Economic Growth?

Our planet faces several serious and urgent challenges to sustainability including, but not limited to, climate change; however, most researchers argue that technological solutions can solve these problems. This review first examines the prospects for decoupling environmental damages in general from economic growth, considered at the global level; then, it looks at whether the recent advances in information and communication technology (ICT) can help. It is argued that although absolute decoupling may have occurred in some countries—even after accounting for energy-intensive imports—it has not occurred at the global level, which is the relevant level for global sustainability problems. This conclusion is strengthened by the very high correlation over the past three decades found between global gross domestic product (GDP) and several parameters relevant for sustainability, particularly for atmospheric CO2 concentrations and ecological footprint as a function of GDP. ICT innovations relevant to energy use include smart grids and smart cities, especially smart urban transport. A review of recently published papers shows no definite findings of energy or carbon reduction, although some innovations show energy/carbon reduction potential if given strong policy support. Overall, it was concluded that the Earth’s sustainability challenges will probably need deep energy reductions, which in turn require profound sociopolitical changes.

Decomposition Analysis of the Carbon Footprint of Primary Metals.

This study investigates how different technological and socioeconomic drivers have impacted the carbon footprint of primary metals. It analyzes the historical evidence from 1995 to 2018 using new metal production, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission extensions made for the multiregional input-output model EXIOBASE. A combination of established input-output methods (index decomposition analysis, hypothetical extraction method, and footprint analysis) is used to dissect the drivers of the change in the upstream emissions occurring due to the production of metals demanded by other (downstream) economic activities. On a global level, GHG emissions from metal production have increased at a similar pace as the GDP but have decreased in high-income countries in the most recent 6 year period studied. This absolute decoupling in industrialized countries is mainly driven by reduced metal consumption intensity and improved energy efficiency. However, in emerging economies increasing metal consumption intensity and affluency have driven up emissions, more than offsetting any reductions due to improved energy efficiency.

Ecological sustainability and high-quality development of the Yellow River Delta in China based on the improved ecological footprint model

Aiming at the traditional ecological footprint model, the improved ecological footprint of the carbon footprint effectively makes up for the singularity of the ecological footprint's consideration of carbon emissions, and plays an important role in promoting high-quality development and ecological sustainability. This paper selects 2015, 2018 and 2020 as important time points for the study, corrects the ecological footprint parameter factors based on net primary productivity (NPP), measures the ecological footprint after the improvement of the carbon footprint, studies the spatial and temporal variation in the ecological footprint at the 100-m grid scale with the support of IPCC greenhouse gas inventory analysis, and analyzes the current ecological conservation status of the Yellow River Delta. Additionally, in the context of a low carbon economy, the decoupling index of carbon emissions and GDP is extended to the evaluation and analysis of high-quality development. The study showed that (1) the ecological footprint of the Yellow River Delta has increased year by year, from 0.721 hm2·person− 1 to 0.758 hm2·person− 1, an average annual increase of 2.9%; the ecological carrying capacity has decreased from 0.40 hm2·person− 1 to 0.31 hm2·person− 1, an overall decrease of 28.59%. (2) The overall ecological deficit of the Yellow River Delta grid is lightly overloaded, with most of the ecological surplus occurring in the northern and eastern parts of the study area and a few moderate and heavy overloads in the center of the core area where there is a lot of built-up land and the area is small and easy to gather. (3) Based on the low-carbon economy analysis, 2015, 2017 and 2020 reach absolute decoupling and are in the ideal scenario. However, in the rest of the years, carbon emissions and economic development are still in a large contradiction, and decoupling has fluctuated and varied greatly in the last six years. The effective combination of ecological footprint and low carbon economy analysis provides an important theoretical basis for improving ecological conservation and achieving high-quality development.

Urbanization, Human Inequality, and Material Consumption.

Global material consumption needs to be reduced to be within its planetary boundary. Urbanization and human inequality are two profound economic-social phenomena, which have potential impacts on material consumption. This paper aims to empirically explore how urbanization and human inequality affect material consumption. For this aim, four hypotheses are proposed and the coefficient of human inequality and material footprint per capita are employed to measure comprehensive human inequality and consumption-based material consumption, respectively. Based on an unbalanced panel data set of around 170 countries from 2010 to 2017, the regression estimations demonstrate that: (1) urbanization reduces material consumption; (2) human inequality increases material consumption; (3) the interaction effect between urbanization and human inequality reduces material consumption; (4) urbanization reduces human inequality, which explains why the interaction effect works; (5) urbanization makes more sense for reducing material consumption if the extents of human inequality are larger and the positive impacts of human inequality on material consumption are weakened if the extents of urbanization are larger. It is concluded that promoting urbanization and reducing human inequality are compatible with both ecological sustainability and social fairness. This paper contributes to understanding and achieving the absolute decoupling between economic-social development and material consumption.

Decoupling gross domestic product and consumption of raw materials: A macro-panel analysis

Over the last decades, industrializing countries have experienced economic growth, which coincided with an increase in the use of materials. In a finite world in terms of materials, the consumption of resources and the link with economic development is a challenge for economies. While most of literature relative to Material Kuznets Curve (MKC) and Environmental Kuznets Curve refers to the work of Grossman and Krueger (1991), the theory of inverted U-shaped consumption is older and can be traced from the work of Malenbaum (1978). Using a new indicator, the material footprint (MF), we want to estimate the material footprint-GDP per capita elasticity. To do so, we compare for the first-time four different methodologies and two classes of econometric models (robust to reverse/simultaneous causality) in the same empirical study. We find neither sign of absolute decoupling between GDP and raw material consumption nor saturation of the demand for raw material. This conclusion does not change when we observe subcomponents of MF or other indicators like Domestic Material Consumption or Domestic Extraction. Therefore, in the current state, our economies and the way we achieve economic development are not compatible with finite natural resources.

Has the Digital Economy Reduced Carbon Emissions?: Analysis Based on Panel Data of 278 Cities in China.

China is undergoing an urbanization process at an unprecedented scale, and low-carbon urban development is of great significance to the completion of the “dual carbon goals”. At the same time, the digital economy has become an important engine for urban development, and its role in environmental improvement has become increasingly prominent. While the digital economy is booming, can it promote the low-carbon development of cities? Based on the panel data of 278 cities in China from 2011 to 2019, this paper discusses the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions and the long-term development trend between the digital economy and carbon emissions, the impact of differences in the development level of the digital economy on carbon emissions reduction, and the impact of green energy efficiency in the relationship between the digital economy and carbon emissions. The results show that the digital economy has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, and with the development of the digital economy, more and more cities show an absolute decoupling of the digital economy and carbon emissions and are turning to low-carbon development. The development level of the digital economy has a heterogeneous impact on carbon emissions. With the improvement of the development level of the digital economy, the effect on emission reduction is more significant. As a threshold variable, green energy efficiency affects the relationship between digital economy and carbon emissions. When green energy efficiency is low, the digital economy promotes carbon emissions, and when green energy efficiency is high, the digital economy reduces carbon emissions.

Drivers for decoupling carbon footprint pressure from economic growth in China’s provinces

A growing imbalance between energy carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration is a major impediment to achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Decoupling the growing imbalance from economic growth needs a stringent and coordinated package of sustainable policies. Previously, enhancing efficiency and vegetation carbon sequestration were dominant drivers to decouple. However, the role and magnitude of restructurings in the energy sector and economy in decoupling were underestimated. In this context, China’s 30 provinces were selected as study areas. By employing a carbon footprint pressure (CFP) indicator to represent the imbalance, a widely decoupling method was adopted to describe the decoupling state and trend of CFP and economic growth. An extended IPAT equation and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method were further used to reveal the role and magnitude of drivers on decoupling. The findings revealed that the CFP climbed significantly in 26 provinces between 2006 and 2015. We discovered that 22 provinces were working toward absolute decoupling, with 15 provinces achieving it during the 12-th Five-Year Plan. Our analysis revealed that improving energy efficiency was the primary driver of absolute decoupling, while substituting natural gas and oil for coal, reducing industry share, and enhancing carbon sequestration accelerated absolute decoupling. Considering the limited future role of improving energy efficiency and vegetation carbon sequestration, there is an urgent need to optimize and upgrade the structures of the energy sector and economy to mitigate the future climate risk.