Abatement Costs Research Articles

Climate mitigation potential and economic costs of natural climate solutions for main cropping systems across China

CONTEXTNatural climate solutions (NCS) offer immediate and cost-effective ways to tackle the climate crisis by transforming atmospheric carbon to soil carbon or avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. However, the climate mitigation potential and economic costs of NCS for cropping systems in China remain inconclusive. OBJECTIVEThe major objectives of this study are (i) to estimate the NGHG reduction potential across Chinese main cropping systems caused by NCS, (ii) to quantify the economic costs of adopting optimal management with different abatement potentials. METHODSThe Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model was used to estimate the NGHG, including SOC sequestration, N2O emissions, and CH4 emissions. After calibration, we ran the DNDC model with derived data at municipality-level. We estimated the NGHG under current management, adopting optimal management individually, and integrated optimal management to project the maximum NGHG reduction potential caused by NCS. We used the marginal abatement cost method to estimate the economic cost. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThe four natural climate solutions, N fertilization management (NFM), straw returning management (SRM), tillage management (TM), and rice irrigation management (RIM) can reduce national NGHG in main cropping systems by approximately 118.8 Tg CO2-eq, 116.3 Tg CO2-eq, 35.2 Tg CO2-eq, and 74.4 Tg CO2-eq, respectively. The integrated optimal management may potentially reduce NGHG by 256.9 Tg CO2-eq, equivalent to 90.2% of current NGHG, and 80% of which can be realized at the price of CN¥ 285 (Mg CO2-eq)−1. We further identify the priority NCS for different crops and regions and conclude that nitrogen fertilization management should be the priority NCS at the national level. SIGNIFICANCEOur findings highlight the great potential of NGHG reduction by adopting NCS precisely and the importance of optimizing agricultural management as a whole, and they will help policy makers to develop smart-agriculture in China.

Study on Cost-Effective Performance of Alternative Fuels and Energy Efficiency Measures for Shipping Decarbonization

Within the context of global initiatives to address climate change, the shipping industry is facing increasingly intensified pressure to decarbonize. The industry is engaging in the exploration and implementation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures, including energy efficiency technologies and alternative fuels, with the objective of accelerating the progression towards greenhouse gas mitigation. The application of various GHG emission reduction measures usually requires different levels of investment costs, and economic feasibility is a key factor influencing policy formulation and investment decisions. In this regard, this paper developed a cost-effective model for energy efficiency measures and alternative fuels based on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) methodology. This model can distinguish the differences between energy efficiency measures and alternative fuels in terms of Tank-to-Wake emissions and Well-to-Wake emissions in the GHG emission evaluation system. By taking typical ship types with significant emission contributions as study cases, i.e., bulk carriers (61–63K DWT), container ships (8000 TEU), product tankers (115K DWT), crude oil tankers (315–320K DWT), and Ro-Ro passenger ferries (3500 DWT), the GHG abatement cost-effective performance of major categories of measures such as operational measures, technical measures, renewable energy sources, and alternative fuels were calculated. According to the MAC results, the marginal abatement cost curves were plotted based on the ranking of energy efficiency measures and alternative fuels, respectively. The impacts of bunker fuel prices and carbon market prices on the cost-effectiveness were analyzed. The research results provided the GHG abatement potential of the integrated application of cost-effective energy efficiency measures, the cost-effectiveness ranking of alternative fuels, and the carbon emission price expected to bridge the price gap between alternative fuels and conventional bunker fuel. The presented methodology and conclusions can be used to assist shipping companies in selecting emission reduction measures, and to support maritime authorities in developing market-based measures.

Techno-economic assessment of biopolymer production from methane and volatile fatty acids: effect of the reactor size and biomass concentration on the poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) selling price

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) is a biobased and biodegradable polymer that could efficiently replace fossil-based plastics. However, its widespread deployment is slowed down by the high production cost. In this work, the techno-economic assessment of the process for producing poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) from low-cost substrates, such as methane and valeric acid derived from the anaerobic digestion of organic wastes, is proposed. Several strategies for cost abatement, such as the use of a mixed consortium and a line for reagent recycling during downstream, were adopted. Different scenarios in terms of production, from 100 to 100,000 t/y, were analysed, and, for each case, the effect of the reactor volume (small, medium and large size) on the selling price was assessed. In addition, the effect of biomass concentration was also considered. Results show that the selling price of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) is minimum for a production plant with 100,000 t/y capacity, accounting for 18.4 €/kg, and highly influenced by the biomass concentration since it can be reduced up to 8.6 €/kg by increasing the total suspended solids from 5 to 30 g/L, This adjustment aligns the breakeven point of PHBV with the reported average commercial price.

Marginal abatement cost of CO2: A convex quantile non-radial directional distance function regression method considering noise and inefficiency

By purchasing emission reduction equipment or reducing production scale, it is possible to effectively decrease CO2. Therefore, understanding the marginal abatement cost (MAC) associated with these methods is crucial for making decisions. However, previous studies using the directional distance function (DDF) approach often mis-specified production functions and neglected data noise. They also assumed decision-making units (DMUs) to be on the production frontier and used proportional changes in inputs and outputs as abatement paths. This paper addresses these limitations by developing the convex quantile non-radial directional distance function (CQR-NDDF) method, which estimates the MAC of CO2 and determines optimal abatement paths for DMUs without assuming a specific production function, employing linear programming techniques. Applying this method to 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019, the study finds that China's CO2 MAC increased from 182 to 247 yuan/ton. The lowest-cost abatement path varies by province and time. The club convergence and ordered probit model are employed to conclude that the second industry and urbanization increase the MAC of CO2, while factors such as foreign direct investment, openness level, and human capital decrease the MAC. Moreover, the CQR-NDDF method yields significantly lower MAC estimates than the NDDF method. In conclusion, this paper provides new insights into China's CO2 MAC, emphasizing the importance of considering inefficiency and data noise in MAC estimation. We anticipate that utilizing CO2 MAC as a benchmark for carbon trading market prices could lead to an increase in prices within China's carbon trading market.

Green quality choice in a duopoly

AbstractThis article considers a quantity‐setting duopoly (Cournot rivalry) in which firms adopt an abatement technology as a device to improve the quality of products. Consumer preferences capture vertical product differentiation (quality) towards “green” products. This introduces a trade‐off on the production side, as firms that do not abate, in turn, do not sustain any abatement cost but the demand for their product is low. On the contrary, firms that choose to abate incur abatement costs, but the demand for their product is high. The article aims to study and understand whether this kind of preference may lead firms to strategically invest in green technology and introduces a new, private‐based (that contrasts the well‐known public‐based) mechanism through which pollution abatement can emerge as a sub‐game perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) of a non‐cooperative abatement decision game with product quality and complete information. The model is developed in a parsimonious way to pinpoint the main determinants of the endogenous market outcomes ranging from an anti‐prisoner's dilemma in which self‐interest and mutual benefit of non‐abatement do not conflict to an anti‐prisoner's dilemma in which self‐interest and mutual benefit of abatement do not conflict, passing through to an anti‐coordination scenario. Additionally, the welfare analysis reveals the existence of a win‐win solution from a societal perspective. The article shows that the results obtained in the Cournot setting also hold considering a Bertrand duopoly.

Co-benefits and influencing factors exploration of air pollution and carbon reduction in China: Based on marginal abatement costs

This study addresses the pressing need for cost-effective emission reduction strategies that maximize co-benefits in terms of air pollution and carbon emissions. Our research contributes to the literature by accurately measuring these co-benefits, thereby facilitating their prompt realization in different regions. We employ an input-output framework that integrates carbon emissions and air pollution, allowing us to calculate marginal abatement costs using the shadow price of undesired output. Through this approach, we quantify the co-benefits and analyze the factors influencing them at both spatiotemporal and factor levels using spatial kernel density and geographical detectors. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) under joint emission reduction efforts, we observe average annual reduction rates of 6.46% for marginal pollution and 6.10% for carbon reduction costs. Importantly, we document an increase in co-benefits from 0.50 to 0.86, characterized by an initial fluctuation followed by a linear increase. (2) the marginal cost difference for carbon emission and pollution reduction in western China was 179.45 and 155.08 respectively, compared to 321.51 and 124.70 in the Northeast, highlighting the crucial role of regional differences in shaping co-benefit outcomes. (3) we identify a negative spatial spillover effect between provinces, which diminishes over time, leading to heterogeneous effects when local provincial co-benefits exceed a threshold of 0.9. (4) during the adjustment period, we find that the industrial structure exerts significant single and interactive effects on co-benefits. Additionally, we highlight the critical role of environmental governance investment and government intervention as drivers of co-benefits in the current era. By offering the quantification of co-benefits under the marginal abatement costs, our study provides valuable scientific insights for planning and implementing effective synergy strategies.

Evaluation of marginal abatement cost and potential reduction in China's industrial carbon emissions: A quadratic directional output distance function approach

As a relevant indicator for quantifying the value of carbon emissions, the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon emissions has received increasing attention from academics and policymakers. This study uses a quadratic directional output distance function to analyse the technical efficiency, potential emission reduction and shadow prices of China's industrial carbon emissions. The results show that the technical efficiency of China's industry gradually decreased during the sample period. From the perspective of regions with different carbon intensity and industrial output, regions with lower carbon intensity and higher industrial output gradually closed to the optimal frontier for the technology use level and had relatively high technical efficiency. Rising technical inefficiency and carbon emissions led to a potential emission reduction that also exhibits an upwards trend. In addition, the MAC of industrial carbon emissions exhibits a U-shaped trajectory, with 2011 as the turning point. Generally, in recent years, regions with lower carbon intensity and those with higher industrial output have a relatively high MAC for industrial carbon emissions. The empirical findings reveal that a carbon emission reduction policy should be formulated and targeted to each province, and the principle of ‘easy before difficult’ can be followed to promote emission reduction.

Comparing Carbon Regulation Scenarios for BRICS and EAEU Economies Using a GTAP-E Model

The paper compares the economic effects of a national carbon tax with those of an emission trading system (ETS) between EAEU and BRICS countries over the medium term. Also included are Uzbekistan, which has observer status in the EAEU, and Turkmenistan, which is an EAEU trade and economic partner. The static computable general equilibrium model GTAP-E is employed. Targets for reducing emissions are formulated on the basis of the countries’ intermediate goals as stated in their respective submissions under the Paris Agreement. The resulting simulations show that, in terms of real GDP, an emission trading scheme would be more favorable than national taxation for countries such as Brazil, India, Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. However, for China, South Africa, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, resorting to an ETS would produce a comparatively greater reduction in GDP. Because the second group of countries has lower abatement costs than the equilibrium carbon price under an ETS, that scenario would permit those countries to reduce emissions by a greater amount and sell emission allowances. The analysis also shows which sectors would increase production after carbon regulation. A considerable increase in production and exports would occur for chemicals and for ferrous and nonferrous metals in several BRICS and EAEU countries. Although those industries are energy-intensive, the countries concerned could decrease emissions by reducing production in the energy or other sectors. These industries could benefit from potential joint comparative advantages in the context of declining demand for traditional energy sources. These findings should be valuable in devising integration policy.

Achieving Carbon Mitigation with Economic Benefits through High-Resolution Analysis of Renewable Resource Integration in Global Coastal Cities.

Coastal regions, home to more than half of the global population and contributing over 50% to the global economy, possess vast renewable resources, such as seawater and solar energy. The effective utilization of these resources, through the seawater-cooled district cooling system (SWDCS), seawater toilet flushing (SWTF), and rooftop solar photovoltaic system (RTPV), has the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions. However, implementing these technologies in different geographic contexts to achieve the desired carbon and economic outcomes at the city level lacks a clear roadmap. To address this challenge, we comprehensively analyzed 12 coastal megacities worldwide by integrating geospatial building data. Our study evaluated the potential energy savings, carbon mitigation, and levelized carbon abatement costs (LCACs) from a life cycle perspective. The results revealed that using seawater and solar energy within urban boundaries can reduce electricity consumption from 1 to 24% across these cities. The spatial distribution of the LCAC for seawater-based systems exhibited more variation compared to the RTPV. By applying specific LCAC thresholds ranging from 0 to 225 USD/tCO2e, all cities could achieve both carbon reductions and economic benefits. These thresholds resulted in up to 80 million tonnes of carbon emission reductions and 5 billion USD of economic benefits, respectively. Our study provides valuable insights into integrating renewable resource systems, enabling coastal cities to achieve carbon and economic advantages at the city scale simultaneously.

Peatland restoration in Germany: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis

Drained peatland currently contributes 7.5% of Germany's total national greenhouse gas emissions. The National Peatland Protection Strategy adopted by the German government in 2022 recognizes that these emissions need to be reduced significantly to meet the country's climate change mitigation commitments. The present study employs a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic and greenhouse gas emission impacts of alternative agriculture-focused peatland rewetting scenarios for Germany up to 2030. In contrast to partial-analytic approaches, the global general equilibrium approach allows to take consistent account of economic ripple-on effects and carbon leakage effects triggered by peatland rewetting. The results suggest that in the medium term towards 2030 a reduction in annual emissions from agricultural peatland use by up to 45% are attainable at marginal private abatement costs between 27 and 61 Euro/tCO2e. Carbon leakage effects due to induced indirect land use change in Germany and the rest of the European Union reduce the global net emission reduction impact by 0.7 to 1.0% of the direct emission reduction. The effects on food prices remain small in all scenarios. In conclusion, a sizable reduction of Germany's land-use-related emissions is achievable at a low macroeconomic cost by moving beyond the moderate ambitions of the National Peatland Restoration Strategy.

Carbon abatement cost evolution in the forthcoming hydrogen valleys by following different hydrogen pathways

The need to develop a forthcoming hydrogen economy emphasises the emerging concept of ‘hydrogen valleys', where hydrogen production and consumption are being developed. This study assesses the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) and Carbon Abatement Cost (CAC) for various hydrogen end-use applications within the context of a hydrogen valley located in the southern Italy over different time horizons (Today 2023, Mid-Term 2030, Long-Term 2050). Examined applications include blending into the gas grid, reconversion into electricity for grid balancing by means of fuel cells, hydrogen refuelling stations for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), synthetic methane production, and electro-fuel synthesis. Employing a parametric approach, the study compares LCOH and decarbonisation costs across different pathways. Results indicate current LCOH production values of 3.66–4.90 €/kgH2, projected to decrease to 1.41–1.94 €/kgH2 by 2050. Decarbonisation cost analysis identifies blending and FCEV scenarios as the most cost-effective, contrasting with Power-to-Power scenarios, particularly in the mid and long terms.

Integration of energy system and computable general equilibrium models: An approach complementing energy and economic representations for mitigation analysis

Energy system and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models play vital roles in climate change mitigation studies. These models have advantages and disadvantages, and attempts have been made to integrate them. This study aimed to describe the method for integrating energy system and CGE models and demonstrate the new model that captures the strengths of both models. The method developed in this study ensured the detailed convergence of the energy system by exchanging the results iteratively. We demonstrated the model integration by adopting the method to MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and AIM/Hub and estimating a mitigation scenario that limits the temperature rise to below 2 °C under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic projection in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. As a result of the integration, the index showing the difference between the two models proposed in this study decreased from 1.0 to 0.066. Therefore, we confirmed that these models estimated consistent scenarios. The diagnostic indicators showed that compared to its counterpart CGE model, the newly-developed model was characterized by a higher contribution of demand-side reductions, a lesser alteration in the primary energy supply composition, and lower abatement costs. Given the convergence and advantages of the integrated framework, the proposed method is useful for further application to mitigation studies.

Costless CO2 emissions abatement through improved government effectiveness

ABSTRACT The withdrawal of Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and Russia from the Kyoto Protocol, the non-ratification of the United States at the onset, and the exemption given to China and India indicate that five out of the ten largest economies in the world, accounting for approximately 50% of the world GDP (as of 2021), have turned away from the Kyoto Protocol. This apprehension can plausibly be explained by the potential loss of productivity resulting from abatement of CO2 emissions. Therefore, this study examines the marginal effect of CO2 emission abatement on technical efficiency and how it can be moderated by government effectiveness. The following are the findings of this study: (1) inclusion of the pollution effect in the modelling of technical efficiency is necessary as it significantly changes the technical efficiency score ranking; (2) the opportunity cost of CO2 emissions abatement exists in the form of productivity loss but is significantly moderated by government effectiveness. These findings are important as they aid policymakers in mapping out a strategy for the desired costless abatement of CO2 emissions.

Redesign for flexibility through electrification: Multi-objective optimization of the operation of a multi-energy industrial steam network

Steam networks are attractive for contributing to the decarbonization of energy systems. The partial or complete electrification of steam generators is expected to reduce direct carbon emissions by replacing fossil fuels. Still, this solution poses challenges in the operation of industrial sites. Most studies on the optimization of steam networks focus on single-period problems that disregard the dynamic operation of flexibility and consider only costs or profit as their objective function. In this study, we analyze the effects of the electrification of steam generators in a multi-period, multi-objective problem, which accounts for profit from energy exchanges, direct and indirect emissions, and steam blow-off. To that end, we use data from an industrial steam network and model it as a multi-objective mixed integer linear program. Five different design scenarios based on flexibility measures in steam networks are formulated with data from an industrial case study. Each problem is solved iteratively using the AUGMENCON-R algorithm to obtain points in the Pareto front efficiently. Electrification together with the inherent storage capacity of the steam network resulted in a potential average profit increase of 488 EUR/day, a potential average emissions reduction of 17.8 tCO2/day, and a potential average blow-off steam reduction of 5.7 t/day. Furthermore, our multi-objective approach reveals an operational carbon emissions abatement cost ranging from 62.5 to 363.6 EUR/tCO2, depending on exogenous data.

Power sector carbon reduction review for South Korea in 2030

This study investigates the cost-effectiveness and decarbonization of four essential carbon reduction strategies to achieve Korea’s recent 2030 NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) goal in the power sector. Examining overseas experiences and identifying potentials and challenges in implementing these strategies in Korea, this study explores the performance of future Korean power systems under fifty-four configurations combining these strategies. The evaluation results indicate that: 1) Thirty-one of the fifty-four tested configurations can achieve the emission target (149.9 MtCO2e) with carbon abatement costs (COA) ranging from -$89 to $105/tCO2e. The optimal configuration with the lowest COA is a combination of nuclear restoration and renewable expansion strategies. 2) Renewable expansion significantly reduces the COA and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A pure renewable expansion strategy with photovoltaics of 68 GW and wind turbines of 35 GW attains the emission goal at a COA of -$54/tCO2e, in which the generation share of renewables reaches 42%. 3) A carbon tax of $104/tCO2e achieves the target if complemented by nuclear restoration. Otherwise, $120/tCO2e is needed. The COA and LCOE are increases by switching from cheap coal to expensive natural gas in both cases. 4) Twenty percent coal–ammonia co-firing combined with a carbon tax of $32/tCO2e and nuclear restoration can achieve the goal with relatively high costs compared with the optimal strategies. However, a co-firing strategy is limited because the generation shrinks at a minimum level when 40%∼ mixing ratios are applied, or when the fuel price gap between ammonia and natural gas becomes large.

Scenario analysis of hydrofluorocarbons consumption and emission reduction in China's mobile air-conditioning sector

The automobile air conditioning industry is an important consumption area of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and the analysis of the use and emission reduction of HFCs in this industry is of great significance for environmental protection. This study aims to measure and analyze the HFC consumption and emission reduction in China's MAC industry and the cost of emission reduction in automobile enterprises through an in-depth analysis, to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of relevant policies and to support the country in achieving HFC emission reduction targets in the field of environmental protection. In this study, the Gompertz model combined with the vehicle survival rate Weibull was used to predict the vehicle ownership and sales in China, and then the HFC consumption and emission reduction in China's MAC industry and the cost of emission reduction in automobile enterprises were measured and analyzed with reference to the experience of relevant domestic and foreign measurement models. The results show that under the four scenarios of R27-X29, R29-X29, R29-X29, and R29-X35, the cumulative use of HFCs will be reduced by 61.44%−73.19%, and the cumulative emission will be reduced by 51.85%−64.55% in the period of 2023–2060, while the cumulative abatement cost of the automobile enterprises in the period of 2023–2060 will be RMB 419.31–481.02 billion. 481.02 billion yuan. The adoption of a policy banning HFCs refrigerants in M1 and N1 vehicles has a significant effect on reducing HFCs consumption and emissions, and the abatement cost will decrease with the expiration of new refrigerant patents, increased demand, and technological advancements.

Modelling assessment of resource competition for renewable basic chemicals and the effect of recycling

AbstractThis work assesses pathways towards a net‐zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions chemical industry sector in Germany until 2050, focusing on the ammonia, methanol, ethylene and adipic acid subsectors and the effect of the recycling of C embedded in chemical end products on the GHG abatement cost and primary resource demand. This was done using a bottom‐up mathematical optimization model, including the energy sectors and the chemicals sector, with electricity and biobased options considered. Results show that net‐zero GHG emissions for the considered chemicals in 2050 are attainable at a marginal cost of 640–900 €/tCO2‐eq, even with 26%–36% of demand being satisfied by fossil production routes. This is possible because renewable organic chemicals can act as carbon sinks if, at their end of life, C is permanently stored via landfilling or passed on to the next value chain via recycling. Nonetheless, considering the cost implications, the practical deployment of renewable chemicals is a challenge. The considered renewable chemicals cost 1.3–8 times more than their fossil counterparts, resulting in a marginal CO2 price of 480 €/tCO2‐eq when all primary resources (energy crops, forest residues and renewable electricity) are considered, or 810 €/tCO2‐eq when the availability of arable land is restricted. In the transition to net‐zero emissions for the chemicals under study, a circular economy is important not only for reducing demand for primary resources as is typically the case but also reduces GHG abatement costs by 13%–24% through carbon capture and utilization effects.

Does the South African Carbon Tax Incentivise Mines to Invest in Solar Photovoltaic?

The aim of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of South Africa’s carbon pricing policy in incentivising adoption of Solar photovoltaic in South African mines. A qualitative study was conducted to evaluate the adequacy of South Africa’s carbon tax policy design to encourage adoption of solar photovoltaic in mines. The study further establishes the carbon pricing level that will induce South African miners to invest in Solar photovoltaic through a net present value simulation. A review of South Africa’s Carbon Tax regime highlights that the policy shortcomings can be attributable to low carbon prices, excessive free emission allowances, and continued subsidy support of fossil fuels. Furthermore, the carbon price needs to exceed cost of abatement to encourage investment in decarbonisation measures. A net present value simulation finds that a carbon price of ZAR 668.62 per tonne of CO2 would need to be levied to incentivise mining entities to invest in solar photovoltaic. The study recommends higher carbon prices be levied for carbon for emissions to encourage mining entities to adopt solar photovoltaic renewable energy. The paper contributes to tax policy scholarship on designing a carbon pricing model for South Africa’s mining sector. Decarbonising the mining industry, a significant contributor of GHG emissions, will advance the decarbonisation efforts of South Africa.

Spatial disparities and sources analysis of co-benefits between air pollution and carbon reduction in China

Spatial misallocation of resource elements impedes the coordination in regional co-benefit in carbon emission and pollution reduction. Guided by scope economy principles, this study aims to quantifies co-benefits and explores spatial variation patterns to facilitate mutual synergy. The findings offer valuable insights for identifying optimal focus points and shaping targeted collaborative policies. Based on the multi-source provincial panel data spanning 2000 to 2021, this paper quantitatively assesses the co-benefit through the lens of marginal abatement cost. Then, the Dagum Gini coefficient was employed to investigate the disparities at the spatial level. Additionally, geographical detector is introduced to analyze the source of disparities at the factor level. Results indicate: (1) Under joint reduction, the marginal abatement cost reduces by 57.86% and 79.97% respectively, with an overall 68.77% increase in co-benefit fluctuation. (2) Provinces with low co-benefit significantly decreased after 2007, while provinces with high co-benefit concentrated in the northwest, southwest, and east. (3) Overall disparities decreased, east-central regions hold the lowest spatial disparities in co-benefit and east-west hold the most; intragroup differences and supervariable density primarily contributes to the disparity. (4) FDI significantly influence the co-benefit over the past two decades, with spatial disparities influenced by both endogenous and exogenous factors across development stages.

Integrated decision-making approach for sectoral low-carbon technology solutions

The contributions of different sectors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are at the heart of the climate debate. In the coming decades, the implementation of low-carbon technology (LCT) solutions in key industries will play a pivotal role in mitigating climate change. This study develops a graphical approach that integrates carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA), the best-worst method (BWM), and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to assess LCTs in key industries. CEPA is used to identify LCTs that meet both economic and GHG reduction constraints, then the LCTs selected by CEPA are subjected to CBA, while BWM is applied to assess the weighted performance of LCTs in terms of their environmental, economic, social, and technological aspects. A comparison of the implementation priority sequence of LCTs was made between the dual constraints of carbon and economic considerations and a multi-factor perspective (environmental impact, economic benefits, social impact, and technological aspects). Finally, by incorporating the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), the optimal low-carbon and economically viable technological pathway can be determined. This study analyzed 85 LCTs from global industries, including the power, food, agriculture, and land use (FAL), industry, transportation, and construction industries. The results for the global scenario from 2020 to 2050 indicate that 38 LCTs have been screened by CEPA to meet the dual constraints of carbon and economic performance, resulting in a GHG emissions reduction of 328.0 Gt CO2-e. Among them, the power industry was the major contributor, with a cumulative reduction of 197.3 Gt CO2-e, followed by the construction industry (97.9 Gt CO2-e), industry (25.4 Gt CO2-e), transportation (4.9 Gt CO2-e), and FAL (2.5 Gt CO2-e); an industry scenario analysis was conducted and listed low-carbon lists in key industries that meet the dual constraints of carbon and economy. This study can contribute to the rational planning and formulation of climate actions at the technological level to effectively enable deep decarbonization.