Integrated decision-making approach for sectoral low-carbon technology solutions

Abstract

The contributions of different sectors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are at the heart of the climate debate. In the coming decades, the implementation of low-carbon technology (LCT) solutions in key industries will play a pivotal role in mitigating climate change. This study develops a graphical approach that integrates carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA), the best-worst method (BWM), and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to assess LCTs in key industries. CEPA is used to identify LCTs that meet both economic and GHG reduction constraints, then the LCTs selected by CEPA are subjected to CBA, while BWM is applied to assess the weighted performance of LCTs in terms of their environmental, economic, social, and technological aspects. A comparison of the implementation priority sequence of LCTs was made between the dual constraints of carbon and economic considerations and a multi-factor perspective (environmental impact, economic benefits, social impact, and technological aspects). Finally, by incorporating the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), the optimal low-carbon and economically viable technological pathway can be determined. This study analyzed 85 LCTs from global industries, including the power, food, agriculture, and land use (FAL), industry, transportation, and construction industries. The results for the global scenario from 2020 to 2050 indicate that 38 LCTs have been screened by CEPA to meet the dual constraints of carbon and economic performance, resulting in a GHG emissions reduction of 328.0 Gt CO2-e. Among them, the power industry was the major contributor, with a cumulative reduction of 197.3 Gt CO2-e, followed by the construction industry (97.9 Gt CO2-e), industry (25.4 Gt CO2-e), transportation (4.9 Gt CO2-e), and FAL (2.5 Gt CO2-e); an industry scenario analysis was conducted and listed low-carbon lists in key industries that meet the dual constraints of carbon and economy. This study can contribute to the rational planning and formulation of climate actions at the technological level to effectively enable deep decarbonization.