3D Hydrodynamic Model Research Articles

A hybrid data assimilation and machine learning approach for enhancing operational forecasting in 2D hydrodynamic models

ABSTRACT Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations to enhance model predictions, but its benefits can rapidly decay during forecast for models heavily influenced by boundary conditions. To extend forecast accuracy, we combine machine learning (ML) with DA in a hybrid approach. We utilize ML to create synthetic point observations, which are assimilated into the model and thus propagated to other positions and model variables. In a case study, we apply the approach to a tidal estuary hydrodynamic model using a long short-term memory (LSTM) network for ML forecasts and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) for assimilation. Hereby, physical consistency and spatial representation of water levels in the estuary are maintained. Our results from 100 forecast runs show significant improvements: over 40% accuracy increase in forecasts up to 4 h ahead, and a >5% error reduction at 9 h compared with a traditional numerical model without assimilation.

Assessment of Mangrove Cover Change Based on Combining Remote Sensing Technique and Hydrodynamic Model Simulation

Mangrove ecosystems along Vietnam's coastline face significant degradation due to human activities, despite their crucial role in coastal protection against natural hazards. This study aims to assess the spatial and temporal changes in mangrove coverage along Vietnam's southern coast by integrating remote sensing techniques with hydrodynamic model simulations. The research methodology combines the Collect Earth tool analysis of Spot-4 and Planet satellite imagery (2000-2020) with Mike 21-HD two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate mangrove coverage changes by simulating shoreline erosion. Results analysis reveals that a significant increase of 109.83 ha in mangrove area within Vinh Chau Town of Soc Trang Province during the period 2010-2020, predominantly in the eastern region. Hydrodynamic simulations demonstrate that the coastal zone is primarily influenced by the interaction of nearshore currents, East Sea tides, and seasonal monsoon wave patterns. The model results effectively capture the complex interactions between these hydrodynamic factors and mangrove distribution. These findings not only validate the effectiveness of combining remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling for mangrove assessment but also provide crucial insights for sustainable coastal ecosystem management. The study's integrated approach offers a robust framework for monitoring mangrove dynamics and developing evidence-based conservation strategies, highlighting the importance of maintaining these vital ecosystems for coastal protection.

The Energy Sharing Timescale in an Analytic Framework for Common Envelope Hydrodynamics

Abstract We propose a new predictive theory for the analysis of common envelope (CE) events that incorporates the effects of relevant hydrodynamical processes into a simple analytical framework. We introduce the ejection and dynamical parameters ξ and β, which define whether envelope ejection is energetically or hydrodynamically favorable, respectively, during CE inspiral. When combined, these parameters offer a detailed narrative of how inspiral begins, proceeds, and ends that is consistent with preliminary comparisons to 3D hydrodynamical models. This physically motivated framework impacts predictions for CE outcomes, especially for systems that have energy excess, and offers promise as a potential alternative for the treatment of CEs in binary population synthesis.

Habitat Unit Mapping in Large River: Combining Ecological Opinions and Hydrodynamic Modelling to Inform River Management

ABSTRACTRestoration of complex river ecosystems requires an understanding of the availability of habitat for populations and multi‐scale choices. Habitat unit (HU) mapping classifies river habitats, aiding in establishing the connection between the physical and biological conditions of rivers. Mid‐scale HU classification can effectively predict fish habitat utilization patterns and has been developed and applied in numerous small to medium‐sized river classifications. However, the delimitation of habitat units (HUs) for large rivers remains in its preliminary stages. This study used a two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic numerical model to calculate hydrodynamic data and forms ecological expert opinions based on the swimming abilities of typical fish species and geomorphic characteristics. A HU mapping procedure was constructed to describe the mesohabitat heterogeneity of HUs in the fluctuating backwater areas of the upper Yangtze River. Results indicated: (1) Rich diversity of habitats in the investigated river segment. HUs exhibit evident patterns in their planar, longitudinal, and lateral distribution. (2) Discharge magnitude influences the stability of HUs, leading to transitions between HU types. During the storage and falling periods, no dominant HU was observed, whereas the fast channel unit dominates during flood period, resulting in a reduction of the preferred habitat of fish. (3) Field monitoring of fish communities validates the potential of HU mapping in describing habitat utilization, which HUs such as pools and riffles were favoured by fish, while fast channel and slackwater unit were actively avoided, confirming the efficacy of the procedure. This research holds significant implications for habitat restoration in river management.

Gis tools and numeric model to forecast the floods extend along the Rhouireg river, city of Taza, Morocco

Combining GIS tool with physical-based model is one of the most effective ways to locate flood-prone zones. In this study, we used a 1D hydrodynamic model to predict the extent of future floods and eventually present the floodable areas on a satellite image covering a densely populated section of the Rhouireg river, located in the eastern part of Taza city. We fed the model with peak flows calculated using the Rational method, estimated variables using standard tables (Manning's coefficient), and other field-measured parameters. We calibrated the model with minor adjustments that were necessary to accurately match the observed floods. Our findings revealed that the covered canal was sufficient to evacuate water during 10- and 20-year floods. The 50- and 100-year floods overflowed the canal and affected National Road No. 6, posing a danger to road traffic. Like this section, the upstream part demonstrated that the decadal frequency flowed through the channel without overflowing its banks. The centennial flood inundated the riverbeds, spreading large amounts of water into inhabited areas and cultivated fields. These results align with the flood that occurred on January 14, 2010, and confirm our previous observations, indicating that the model precisely anticipated the river's behavior. The numeric simulations have also proven to be an incredibly powerful tool for conducting a detailed assessment of flood risks along this small wadi.

Investigating numerical stability by scaling heat conduction in a 1D hydrodynamic model of the solar atmosphere

Numerical models of the solar atmosphere are widely used in solar research and provide insights into unsolved problems such as the heating of coronal loops. A prerequisite for such simulations is an initial condition for the plasma temperature and density. Many explicit numerical schemes employ high-order derivatives that require some diffusion, for example isotropic diffusion, for each independent variable to maintain numerical stability. Otherwise, significant numerical inaccuracies and subsequent wiggles will occur and grow at steep temperature gradients in the solar transition region. We tested how to adapt the isotropic heat conduction to the grid resolution so that the model is capable of resolving varying temperature gradients. Our ultimate goal is to construct an atmospheric stratification that can serve as an initial condition for multi-dimensional models. Our temperature stratification spans from the solar interior to the outer corona. From that, we computed the hydrostatic density stratification. Since numerical and analytical derivatives are not identical, the model needs to settle to a numerical equilibrium to fit all model parameters, such as mass diffusion and radiative losses. To compensate for energy losses in the corona, we implemented an artificial heating function that mimics the expected heat input from the 3D field-line braiding mechanism. Our heating function maintains and stabilises the obtained coronal temperature stratification. However, the diffusivity parameters need to be adapted to the grid spacing. Unexpectedly, we find that higher grid resolutions may need larger diffusivities --- contrary to the common understanding that high-resolution models are automatically more realistic and would need less diffusivity. Smaller grid spacing causes larger temperature gradients in the solar transition region and hence a greater potential for numerical problems. We conclude that isotropic heat conduction is an efficient remedy when using explicit schemes with high-order numerical derivatives.

Monsoon-Driven Dispersal of River-Sourced Floating Marine Debris in Tropical Semi-Enclosed Waters: A Case Study in the Gulf of Thailand

Marine debris (MD) causes significant threats to marine ecosystems. However, limited research addresses its transport of MD in tropical shallow semi-enclosed seas. This study applied a validated 3D hydrodynamic model and a particle tracking model to simulate the seasonal distribution of floating marine debris (FMD) originating from major river mouths in the vicinity of the Gulf of Thailand (GoT). The aim was to examine seasonal distribution patterns and variations influenced by sea surface circulation. Simulated particles were released every six hours from 12 river mouths and tracked over three years. Results revealed that seasonal currents drive the distribution of debris between the eastern and western regions, as well as its export and import across the gulf. The upper Gulf of Thailand (UGoT) exhibited the highest concentration of debris, with around 50% of the total released particles ending up onshore across the GoT, varying seasonally. An analysis showed that 74% of the debris released within the gulf remains there. Additionally, the GoT receives approximately 10% of the debris from rivers located outside its boundaries. Findings from this study suggest that the GoT, as an example of a tropical semi-enclosed sea, functions as both a sink and a source for FMD. These results could support the development of strategic seasonal cleanup frameworks, optimizing efforts during peak debris accumulation periods to enhance management efficiency. In addition, the mapping of debris distribution provides critical data for assessing and mitigating marine environmental impacts in the GoT.

Tide-river interaction in the Pechora Delta as revealed by new measurements and numerical modeling

The Pechora is the greatest river of the European Russian Arctic, flowing into the Barents Sea. Its estuarine area includes a vast delta, represented by extensive lowlands that are dissected by the complicated network of arms and branches. Despite the Pechora Delta is considered to be microtidal, tides with a range of 0.5–1 m during the low water period have a significant impact on the nature of currents in the main branches and the distribution of runoff among them during the tidal cycle. Tidal sea level fluctuations as well as storm surges determine the reversing pattern of currents over a significant extent of the delta branches. The modern field equipment combined with 2D hydrodynamic modeling has allowed to understand the contemporary flow features and evaluate their possible alterations under climate changes. The climate impact under considered scenarios is more pronounced during the low flow period, and this can lead to the propagation of tidal currents and an increase in water levels in the city of Naryan-Mar (100 km upstream from the mouth). From a flood risk perspective, sea level rise can be offset by a reduction in flood runoff.

Simulation of a New Well SAGD Configuration based on the example of an Oil Field in Kazakhstan

Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) method is recognized as one of the most effective methods for the recovery of heavy oil and natural bitumen. This technology has received several modifications throughout its history designed to improve it. One of the promising modifications is the Single Well-SAGD (SW-SAGD), which allows significantly reducing the CAPEX for drilling a well. However, this method has several disadvantages such as steam breakthrough into the production part and the uneven development of the steam chamber along the well. This article presents the concept of a Single-Well Cyclic SAGD (SWC-SAGD), which allows preventing the breakthrough of the injected steam into the production section and the uniform development of the steam chamber along the well. The comparison analysis of the developed modification of SWC-SAGD was carried out using the classical method of 3D hydrodynamic modeling of both options using the example of one of the fields of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The results of the work show the efficiency of the proposed technology in terms of field oil total production.

Constraining the Circumstellar Medium Structure and Progenitor Mass-loss History of Interacting Supernovae Through 3D Hydrodynamic Modeling: The Case of SN 2014C

We investigate SN 2014C using three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic modeling, focusing on its early interaction with a dense circumstellar medium (CSM). Our objective is to uncover the pre-supernova (SN) CSM structure and constrain the progenitor star’s mass-loss history prior to core collapse. Our comprehensive model traces the evolution from the progenitor star through the SN event and into the SN remnant phase. We simulate the remnant’s expansion over approximately 15 yr, incorporating a CSM derived from the progenitor star’s outflows through dedicated hydrodynamic simulations. Analysis reveals that the remnant interacted with a dense toroidal nebula extending from 4.3 × 1016 to 1.5 × 1017 cm in the equatorial plane, with a thickness of approximately 1.2 × 1017 cm. The nebula’s density peaks at approximately 3 × 106 cm−3 at the inner boundary, gradually decreasing as ≈r −2 at greater distances. This nebula formed due to intense mass loss from the progenitor star between approximately 5000 and 1000 yr before collapse. During this period, the maximum mass-loss rate reached about 8 × 10−4 M ⊙ yr−1, ejecting ≈2.5 M ⊙ of stellar material into the CSM. Our model accurately reproduces Chandra and NuSTAR spectra, including the iron (Fe) K line, throughout the remnant’s evolution. Notably, the Fe line is self-consistently reproduced, originating from shocked ejecta, with ≈0.05 M ⊙ of pure-Fe ejecta shocked during the remnant–nebula interaction. These findings suggest that the 3D geometry and density distribution of the CSM, as well as the progenitor star’s mass-loss history, align with a scenario where the star was stripped through binary interaction, specifically common-envelope evolution.

Rapid 2D hydrodynamic flood modeling using deep learning surrogates

Rapid 2D hydrodynamic flood modeling using deep learning surrogates

On the cause of large daily river flow fluctuations in the Mekong River

Abstract. Natural fluctuations in river flow are central to the ecosystem productivity of basins, yet significant alterations in daily flows pose threats to the integrity of the hydrological, ecological, and agricultural systems. In the dammed Lancang–Mekong River (hereafter LMR), the attribution of these large daily flow changes to upstream regions remains mechanistically unexamined, a factor blamed on challenges in estimating the time required for large daily shifts in upstream river flow to impact the downstream stations. Here, we address this with a newly developed subbasin modeling framework that integrates 3D hydrodynamic and response time models, together with a hydrological model with an embedded reservoir module. This integration allows us to estimate the time required between two hydrological stations and to distinguish between the contributions of subbasins and upstream regions to large daily river flow alterations. The findings revealed a power correlation between upstream river discharge and the time required to reach downstream stations. Significant fluctuations (greater than 1 m) in the river's daily flow were evident before the advent of the era of human activities, i.e., before 1992, with around 92 % of these fluctuations occurring during the wet season, particularly in June, July, and August. This pattern persisted throughout subsequent periods, including the growth period (1992–2009) and the mega-dam period (2010 to 2020), with minimal variation in the frequency of events. The Lancang basin contributed approximately 33 %–42 % of these large river fluctuations at the Chiang Saen station. We found that daily-scale water level and runoff might not fully capture dynamic river flow changes, as significant differences were observed between daily and subdaily river flow profiles. Subbasins significantly contributed to mainstream discharge, leading to substantial shifts in mainstream daily river flows. The outcomes and model derived from the subbasin approach have significant potential for managing river fluctuations and broader applicability beyond the specific basin studied.

The overflowing atmosphere of WASP-121 b. High-resolution transmission spectroscopy with VLT/CRIRES+

Transmission spectroscopy is a prime method to study the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. We obtained a high-resolution spectral transit time series of the hot Jupiter with CRIRES$^+$ to study its atmosphere via transmission spectroscopy of the triplet lines. Our analysis shows a prominent absorption feature moving along with the planetary orbital motion, which shows an observed, transit-averaged equivalent width of approximately 30\,m a slight redshift, and a depth of about 2\,<!PCT!>, which can only be explained by an atmosphere overflowing its Roche lobe. We carried out 3D hydrodynamic modeling to reproduce the observations, which favors asymmetric mass loss with a more pronounced leading tidal tail, possibly also explaining observational evidence for additional absorption stationary in the stellar rest frame. A trailing tail is not detectable. From our modeling, we derived estimates of $ for the stellar and $5.4 for the planetary mass loss rate, which is consistent with X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) driven mass loss in

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood model predictions in data-scarce regions through integration of multiple terrain datasets

Topography highly influences hydraulic model predictions. High-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are currently used in 2D flood modeling studies to create relatively more accurate flood inundation maps. However, the availability of high-resolution datasets, such as Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR), remains limited due to cost constraints. Thus, low-resolution global datasets are utilized in data-scarce regions. Merging high and low-resolution terrain datasets will be an alternative approach to improve flood models, and comprehensive analysis of such merged DEMs is lacking. Thus, a new DEM (V-DEM) is developed in this study by incorporating available LiDAR, SRTM, local DEM, and river cross-sectional data. 2D unsteady hydrodynamic model predictions are analyzed using the V-DEM, existing low-resolution global datasets, SRTM and MERIT Hydro, and their modified versions. V-DEM was found to create flood flow predictions with a better Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, significantly outperforming low-resolution global datasets. In addition, MERIT Hydro showed more than 50% improvement in the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency over SRTM in flow discharge predictions. There is a 110% improvement in the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for hydrologically corrected SRTMs over the original SRTM. When SRTM is merged with LiDAR and hydrologically corrected, the predictions also showed an improvement of 146% over the original SRTM. Moreover, this study highlights that the vertical accuracy of terrain datasets has a more significant effect on the flood model predictions than the horizontal resolution, especially in the high and low-gradient regions of the study area. Overall, this study would benefit flood modelers in developing accurate DEMs, especially in the unavailability of high-resolution data for the entire study area.

Influence of River Discharge and Tides on the Salinity Structure at the Magdalena River Estuary

The salinity structure in the Magdalena River estuary results from a massive river discharge and a micro-tidal regime over a narrow-deep channel. Both environmental forcings are analyzed here to assess their effects on the temporal and spatial variability of the estuarine system. We investigated long-term (seasonal to interannual) and short-term (diurnal) changes in salinity structure and circulation through in situ measurements and a 3D hydrodynamic model ensemble (21 model runs). The measurements cover low (below 10th percentile) and mean river discharge conditions. Results show that the Magdalena River estuary (MRE) behaves as a strongly stratified system during the dry season (February to April) and as a vertically homogeneous one during the wet and transitional seasons when the river plume exhibits a lift-off regime at the mouth. A river discharge threshold has been found for the estuary to lift-off regime transition, corresponding to the 30th percentile (5200 m3/s). At the seasonal scale, the salinity intrusion length in the MRE shows more reactivity to river discharge variability than other reported strongly stratified estuaries; it is reflected in the scaling factor n\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$n$$\\end{document} in the relationship L∼Q-n\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$L\\sim {Q}^{-n}$$\\end{document}. A n\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$n$$\\end{document} value of 3.9 is the best fit for the MRE; nevertheless, it follows the Schijf and Schönfeld theoretical model solution for a prismatic flat configuration. Micro tides modulate the salinity intrusion on the diurnal cycle with a more significant effect on salinity intrusion and water exchange than previously reported, particularly during low discharge conditions. The findings from measurements and model scenarios for the MRE can be broadly applied and stand for an exemplary tropical, micro-tidal, anthropogenic intervened system.

Impact of Three Gorges Dam construction on spatiotemporal variations in the hydrodynamic regime of Poyang Lake (China)

As an important large-scale river-connected lake in the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Poyang Lake has complex interactions with the main stream of the river. The full operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the main stream of the Yangtze River has caused substantial changes in the relationship between the river and the lake, and the hydrological and hydrodynamic regime of Poyang Lake have also shown obvious variations in response. This study constructed a 2D hydrodynamic model of Poyang Lake based on GPU acceleration to realize a long-term simulation of the water flow evolution of Poyang Lake. By comparing the differences in water level at Hukou station between 20-year periods before and after TGD construction, the impact of TGD construction on Poyang Lake was characterized. Results showed that in comparison with the values for the pre-dam period, the water level of Poyang Lake decreased by 0.4–2.0 m and the flow velocity increased by 0.01–0.04 m/s in the post-dam period, and both showed a trend of reduction spatially from the north toward the south. Additionally, the inundation area of the lake decreased by 9 %, the 10-m characteristic water level at Xingzi station advanced by 27 days, the duration of low water extended by 37 days, and in typical dry, normal, and wet years, the time of occurrence of low water advanced. Moreover, TGD construction has aggravated the conditions of Poyang Lake in the dry season. The findings of this study are of great importance in relation to refining the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of habitats, and supporting further investigation of the changes in the aquatic ecosystem of Poyang Lake under TGD regulation.

Dam Breach Analysis and Damage Assessment of Nova Kakhovka Dam using Satellite data and 1D and 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling

Dam Breach Analysis and Damage Assessment of Nova Kakhovka Dam using Satellite data and 1D and 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling

Embankment Breach Simulation and Inundation Mapping Leveraging High-Performance Computing for Enhanced Flood Risk Prediction and Assessment

Abstract. Embankment breaches represent significant hazards to communities and infrastructure, precipitating catastrophic flood occurrences. The precise prediction of floods and understanding the scope of inundation stemming from embankment failures are imperative for effective disaster preparedness and response. This research delves into a case study on simulating embankment breaches to evaluate the extent of flooding. Leveraging advanced hydrodynamic models validated through high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and integrating real-time data assimilation, we aim to improve accuracy in flood forecasting. The study endeavours to bolster flood risk management by furnishing detailed inundation maps and insights into embankment breach dynamics, thereby facilitating enhanced preparedness and response strategies. Our findings reveal that simulations conducted on multicore processors offer superior performance compared to single-core setups, yielding enhanced result accuracy and providing administrators with increased lead time. It unlocks high-resolution simulations for intricate basin details, explores a wider range of flood scenarios quickly, and allows for efficient ensemble modelling to assess model uncertainty. Through HPC utilization, we can harness high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for 2D-hydrodynamic modelling, enabling rapid assessment of water spread resulting from embankment breaches within a mere 20-minute timeframe, a significant improvement from the previous 3–4 hours duration.

A probabilistic framework for offshore aquaculture suitability assessment using bivariate copulas

Aquaculture at sea is gaining increasing importance, not only as a (local) food source but also due to its potential of being combined with other offshore activities such as wind parks. Nevertheless, experience of offshore aquaculture is limited. This study aims to provide a framework to evaluate offshore aquaculture suitability accounting for the probabilistic dependence between relevant variables. This framework is applied to obtain suitability maps of aquaculture for the North Sea for the blue mussel Mytilus edulis and the sugar kelp Saccharina latissima. For each of these species, three ecological variables are selected and the optimal growth and critical survival limits are defined. Here, suitability is defined as the probability of meeting these conditions. Data on the selected variables is extracted from a large-scale 3D hydrodynamic and ecological model of the northwest European Shelf, of which daily extremes are sampled. The probabilistic model is developed using bivariate copula models, which are fitted to each variable pair to describe their joint distribution function at each studied location. Empirical distribution functions are used to describe the univariate distribution function of each variable and location. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, the probability of meeting the optimal and critical limits is estimated and suitability maps accounting for the probabilistic dependence between the variables are generated. In addition, suitability maps disregarding the dependence are generated and compared to those accounting for the probabilistic dependence. It was found that considering the dependence between variables significantly improves the accuracy of the results for optimal and critical growth conditions for both species. The presented method allows to identify potential areas where blue mussel and sugar kelp cultivation is the most suitable. For instance, in this study, a north-south elongated area west of the German and Danish coast appears to be most suitable for blue mussels, while estuaries and rivers are found the most suitable for the sugar kelp.

Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling

The ongoing trend of warming climate has made Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) a major cryospheric hazard worldwide, especially in the Himalayas. GLOFs in the Himalayan region are mostly caused by moraine-dammed proglacial lakes and ice-dammed lakes. These sporadic disasters have resulted in significant loss of life and property. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the GLOF hazard potential of a potentially dangerous proglacial lake (PDGL) in the Ladakh region. This research explores the GLOF threat from the lake using multi-criteria analysis and advanced 2D hydrodynamic modeling approaches. The mass balance response of the mother glacier, its flow dynamics, and glacier-lake interactions were examined for the past 22 years. The findings show that over this period, the PDGL has had a notable expansion of 78.7%, accompanied by a significant recession of 13.2% in its feeding glacier. The glacier has witnessed an average thickness loss of ⁓7 m at the rate of 0.32 m a−1 during this period. The average, lowest, and maximum depth of the glacier were found to be 30.95, 14.30, and 50.57 m, respectively and the average velocity of the glacier was estimated as 3.38 m a−1. Because of the lake’s rapid expansion and steep surrounding slopes, it was classified as a high-hazard lake. The risk to the downstream community was assessed through 2D hydrodynamic modeling using the HEC-RAS tool. The maximum discharge under the worst-case scenario for the piping and overtopping failures was estimated as 3890.99 m3s−1 and 5111.39 m3s−1, respectively. The area potentially under the threat of inundation was calculated to be 4.74 and 5.38 km2 for the moderate and worst-case scenarios respectively. The expected maximum flood velocities range from 18.26 to 23.78 meters, respectively for the moderate and worst-case scenarios. At several locations in the downstream area, routed hydrographs representing the GLOF propagation were generated. The findings show that the flood wave in the worst-case scenario would arrive at the first settlement in 50 min, with a peak velocity of 12.36 m s−1. The potentially inundated area includes critical infrastructure such as bridges, residential houses, and roads. To mitigate the potential risk associated with this lake, a more detailed and on-site study is highly recommended.