Embankment Breach Simulation and Inundation Mapping Leveraging High-Performance Computing for Enhanced Flood Risk Prediction and Assessment

Abstract

Abstract. Embankment breaches represent significant hazards to communities and infrastructure, precipitating catastrophic flood occurrences. The precise prediction of floods and understanding the scope of inundation stemming from embankment failures are imperative for effective disaster preparedness and response. This research delves into a case study on simulating embankment breaches to evaluate the extent of flooding. Leveraging advanced hydrodynamic models validated through high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and integrating real-time data assimilation, we aim to improve accuracy in flood forecasting. The study endeavours to bolster flood risk management by furnishing detailed inundation maps and insights into embankment breach dynamics, thereby facilitating enhanced preparedness and response strategies. Our findings reveal that simulations conducted on multicore processors offer superior performance compared to single-core setups, yielding enhanced result accuracy and providing administrators with increased lead time. It unlocks high-resolution simulations for intricate basin details, explores a wider range of flood scenarios quickly, and allows for efficient ensemble modelling to assess model uncertainty. Through HPC utilization, we can harness high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for 2D-hydrodynamic modelling, enabling rapid assessment of water spread resulting from embankment breaches within a mere 20-minute timeframe, a significant improvement from the previous 3–4 hours duration.