3-month Mortality In Patients Research Articles

A practical risk score for prediction of 6-month mortality in patients with acute heart failure: CHAM2P2

Abstract Background Admission with acute heart failure carries a poor prognosis. Multiple predictive risk scores exist in heart failure presentation, however the utility of these scores in acute heart failure setting among older adults is limited. Aim The purpose of this study was to develop a practical risk score to predict 6-month mortality in patients presenting with acute heart failure. Methods Between January-August 2020, 474 consecutive patients (mean age 80 ± 11 years) admitted with acute heart failure to a large tertiary hospital in the South-West of England were identified. Data was retrospectively collected on admission bloods, comorbidities, imaging, echocardiography and post discharge mortality. Prediction modelling with multivariate Cox regression was then used to identify clinically relevant predictors of six-month mortality. Continuous variables were dichotomised around the mean/median for simplification. Variables were assigned points proportional to hazard ratios on Cox regression. Results Mortality at six months was 34% (161/474). Cox regression identified five significant (p<0.05) predictors of mortality: C: Clinical Frailty Score>5, H: hospital stay >10 days, A: age >80yrs, M: malignancy (current or previous) history and P: NT pro-BNP>4500pg/ml. In our final model, malignancy and NT pro-BNP were assigned two points with the remainder being assigned one. In total, 304 patients had data available to generate CHAM2P2 scores. Mortality increased sequentially from 16.0% in patients with CHAM2P2 0-2, 44.4% in patients with CHAM2P2 scores of 3-5 and 94.1% in patients with CHAM2P2 scores of 6 or 7 (log rank <0.01). AUC demonstrated good discriminatory value of the CHAM2P2 score in predicting six-month mortality (AUC 0.74). Conclusion The CHAM2P2 score is a readily available and simple tool to predict 6-month mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure.

The potential of body mass index-adjusted calf circumference as a proxy for low muscle mass in the global leadership initiative on malnutrition criteria

Background & AimsReduced muscle mass is one of the diagnostic components for Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM), with various assessment methods proposed. Calf circumference (CC), a representative anthropometric marker of skeletal muscle mass, is now recommended to adjustment based on body mass index (BMI). This study aimed to evaluate the validity and efficacy of BMI-adjusted CC in very older adults, compared with other methods of assessing muscle mass. MethodsThis prospective cohort study included 284 patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to the Department of Geriatric Medicine at the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology Hospital. Health indicators, including nutritional status, were assessed upon admission. Three months after discharge, a telephone survey was conducted to assess patients’ living conditions and survival status. Skeletal muscle mass was estimated using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA); moreover, anthropometric measurements (unadjusted and BMI-adjusted CC) were used as markers of muscle mass. Logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the association between mortality and GLIM-based malnutrition, using each muscle mass assessment method. ResultsThe mean age of the patients was 86.2 ± 6.2 years, and 60.9% were women. The prevalence of GLIM-based malnutrition ranged from 55.3% to 58.8% across the three methods used to assess reduced muscle mass. Three months after discharge, 244 patients were followed up, of whom 29 (11.9%) died. Multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities, showed that all methods significantly predicted 3-month mortality, with odds ratios of 5.67, 5.44, and 4.90 for unadjusted CC, BMI-adjusted CC, and appendicular skeletal muscle mass index using DXA, respectively. The prevalence and survival-predictive ability were similar across all methods. ConclusionGLIM-based malnutrition, diagnosed using different methods for assessing muscle mass, similarly predicted 3-month mortality in patients admitted to an acute geriatric ward. These results suggest that BMI-adjusted CC are sufficient alternatives when technical measurements such as DXA are not feasible.

Contemporary optimal therapeutic strategy with escalation/de-escalation of temporary mechanical circulatory support in patients with cardiogenic shock and advanced heart failure in Japan.

The utilization of temporary mechanical circulatory support (MCS) in the management of cardiogenic shock is experiencing a notable surge. Acute myocardial infarction remains the predominant etiology of cardiogenic shock, followed by heart failure. Recent findings from the DanGer Shock trial indicate that the percutaneous micro-axial flow pump support, in conjunction with standard care, significantly reduced 6-month mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction-related cardiogenic shock compared to those receiving standard care alone. However, real-world registry data reveal that the 30-day mortality among patients with acute myocardial infarction-related cardiogenic shock, who received concomitant veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support along with micro-axial flow pump, remain suboptimal. The persistent challenge in the field is how to incorporate, escalate, and de-escalate these temporary MCS to further improve clinical outcomes in such clinical scenarios. This review aims to elucidate the current practices surrounding the escalation and de-escalation of temporary MCS in real-world clinical settings and proposes considerations for future advancements in this critical area.

Long-term immunosuppressive treatment is not associated with worse outcome in patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit for septic shock: the PACIFIC study

BackgroundExcept in a few retrospective studies mainly including patients under chemotherapy, information regarding the impact of immunosuppressive therapy on the prognosis of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for septic shock is scarce. Accordingly, the PACIFIC study aimed to asses if immunosuppressive therapy is associated with an increased mortality in patients admitted to the ICU for septic shock.MethodsThis was a retrospective epidemiological multicentre study. Eight high enroller centres in septic shock randomised controlled trials (RCTs) participated in the study. Patients in the “exposed” group were selected from the screen failure logs of seven recent RCTs and excluded because of immunosuppressive treatment. The “non-exposed” patients were those included in the placebo arm of the same RCTs. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the risk of death.ResultsAmong the 433 patients enrolled, 103 were included in the “exposed” group and 330 in the “non-exposed” group. Reason for immunosuppressive therapy included organ transplantation (n = 45 [44%]) or systemic disease (n = 58 [56%]). ICU mortality rate was 24% in the “exposed” group and 25% in the “non-exposed” group (p = 0.9). Neither in univariate nor in multivariate analysis immunosuppressive therapy was associated with a higher ICU mortality (OR: 0.95; [95% CI 0.56–1.58]: p = 0.86 and 1.13 [95% CI 0.61–2.05]: p = 0.69, respectively) or 3-month mortality (OR: 1.13; [95% CI 0.69–1.82]: p = 0.62 and OR: 1.36 [95% CI 0.78–2.37]: p = 0.28, respectively).ConclusionsIn this study, long-term immunosuppressive therapy excluding chemotherapy was not associated with significantly higher or lower ICU and 3-month mortality in patients admitted to the ICU for septic shock.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram Based on Fibrosis-4 Index to Predict 3-Month Mortality in Patients with Hepatic Encephalopathy

Background: Hepatic encephalopathy is a severe neuropsychiatric complication of decompensated cirrhosis associated with high short-term mortality. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of non-invasive scoring systems and develop a prognostic nomogram to identify the risk of 3-month mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy. Methods: Retrospective data from 251 patients with decompensated cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy were collected. Clinical data and non-invasive scoring systems were compared between survivors and non-survivors using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A prognostic model was developed and validated using bootstrap resampling procedures. Results: Among the 251 patients, 40 (15.9%) died within three months. The non-survivor group had a higher incidence of complications and higher non-invasive scores (all P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis revealed that hepatorenal syndrome, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and Fibrosis-4 index were independent risk factors. A new model incorporating the Fibrosis-4 index and complications was developed, and discrimination was assessed using a bootstrap-corrected C statistic of 0.831. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the new model (0.840, 95% confidence interval: 0.789 - 0.883) was significantly higher than that of the non-invasive scoring systems (all P < 0.05). The calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.771) showed good calibration accuracy. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative survival rate in the high-risk group was significantly lower (P < 0.01). Conclusions: The prognostic nomogram consisting of the Fibrosis-4 index and complications can effectively predict the risk of 3-month mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy.

Predictors of 3-month mortality with muscle ultrasound and palliative prognostic tools among patients admitted to palliative care units.

Prognostic factors are an important issue in progressive and life-limiting diseases. This study evaluate 3-month mortality in patients admitted to the palliative care unit (PCU). In this study, the patient's demographics, comorbidities, nutritional status, and laboratory values were recorded. The palliative performance scale (PPS), the palliative prognostic index (PPI), and the palliative prognostic (PaP) score were calculated. The rectus femoris (RF) cross-sectional area (CSA), RF muscle thickness, gastrocnemius (GC) medialis muscle thickness, pennation angle and fascicle length of the GC were measured by ultrasound for survival prediction. A total of 88 patients enrolled during the study period, with a mean age of 73.6 ± 13.3 years and a 3-month mortality rate of 59.1%. The findings of a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model based on age, gender, C-reactive protein level and Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 scores as covariates revealed the PPI and the PaP score to be significant predictors of 3-month mortality. In addition, in the unadjusted Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, the CSA of the RF muscle was also found to be a significant predictor of 3-month mortality. Findings revealed that the combined use of the CSA of the RF, the PPI, and the PaP score are reliable predictors of mortality in patients admitted to the PCU.

Prevalence of Four Sarcopenia Criteria in Older Patients with Cancer, and Their Predictive Value for 6-Month Mortality: The NutriAgeCancer National Prospective Cohort Study

Older cancer patients have an elevated risk of sarcopenia. The aim was to estimate the prevalence of four criteria for sarcopenia case finding, assessment, diagnosis, and severity determination: abnormal strength, assistance with walking, rising from a chair, climbing stairs, and falls (SARC-F), low hand-grip strength (HGS), low arm circumference (AC, a muscle mass proxy), and low physical performance (PP). Sarcopenia (low HGS and AC) and severe sarcopenia (low HGS, AC, and PP) and their predictive values for 6-month mortality were estimated in the whole population and by metastatic status. We analyzed data from the NutriAgeCancer French nationwide study of cancer patients aged ≥70 referred for geriatric assessment before anti-cancer treatment. We performed Cox proportional hazards analysis for each criterion separately and all criteria combined. Overall, 781 patients from 41 geriatric oncology clinics were included (mean age: 83.1; females: 53%; main cancer types: digestive (29%) and breast (17%); metastases: 42%). The prevalence of abnormal SARC-F, low HGS, a low AC, low PP, sarcopenia, and severe sarcopenia were, respectively, 35.5%, 44.6%, 44.7%, 35.2%, 24.5%, and 11.7%. An abnormal SARC-F and/or low HGS, sarcopenia, and severe sarcopenia were associated with 6-month mortality in patients with metastases (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence interval]: 2.72 [1.34-5.49], 3.16 [1.48-6.75] and 6.41 [2.5-16.5], respectively). Sarcopenia was strongly predictive of 6-month mortality in patients with metastatic cancer.

Urologic oncology and critical care: What are prognostic factors that correlate with 6-month mortality in patients (pts) with urological tumors referred to intensive care unit (ICU)?

91 Background: Defining which oncologic pts actually benefit from ICU admission can be a difficult task. There is a lack of data that consistently support indication and benefit with impact on patient survival when this care is offered. The present retrospective study sought to evaluate prognostic factors related to mortality in 6 months after hospital discharge of pts with urological tumors admitted to ICU at the A C Camargo Cancer Center. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of pts with urological cancers (bladder, prostate, kidney, testicular, and other) admitted to ICU in 2017-2018. We collected the following data to identify possible predictors of 6-month mortality: gender, age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, type of ICU admission (planned or unplanned), clinical stage at diagnosis (locoregional vs. metastatic). All these variables were included in a logistic regression model with mortality at 6 months as the dependent variable. Results: Assessing the medical record of 677 patients, the pts with ECOG grading >2 presented poorer results compared to the ones 0-2, with an Odds Ratio (OR) 5.10 [Confidence Interval 95% (CI) 2.46-11.69]. The urological tumor type did influence the 6-month mortality, with the best results for pts with testicular tumors: OR 0.27 (CI 0.05-0.99) and the worst ones to bladder tumors with an OR 2.35 (CI 1.44-3.87) when compared to prostate tumors. For metastatic diagnoses, as expected, the mortality results appeared to be worse than for pts with locoregional disease, with an OR 4.06 (CI 2.73-6.07). Finally, pts undergoing unplanned hospitalization at ICU, understanding clinical and surgical ones, presented poorer results compared to the elective ones, with an OR 3.22 (2.16-4.84). Conclusions: In this cohort of pts with urological cancers, 6-month mortality was 39%. Performance status, bladder cancer, metastatic disease and unplanned hospitalizations were all associated with increased mortality.

Risk factors for postoperative medical morbidity and 3-month mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture following hip arthroplasty during COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundThe purpose of the current study was to investigate the incidence of postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality in patients ≥ 70 years old with hip fracture following hip arthroplasty (HA) and independent risk factors associated with postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.MethodsA multicenter retrospective study was conducted, patients ≥ 70 years old with HA for hip fracture under general anesthesia were included during COVID-19 and before COVID-19 pandemic. The outcome was defined as postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality. The baseline characteristics and risk factors were collected, multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality.ResultsA total of 1096 patients were included during COVID-19 pandemic and 1149 were included before COVID-19 pandemic in the study. Patients ≥ 70 years with hip fracture for HA had longer fracture to operation duration (7.10 ± 3.52 vs. 5.31 ± 1.29, P < 0.001), and the incidence of postoperative medical complications (21.90% vs. 12.53%, P < 0.001) and 3-month mortality (5.20% vs. 3.22%, P = 0.025) was higher during COVID-2019 pandemic. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that dementia (OR 2.73; 95% CI 1.37–5.44; P = 0.004), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR 3.00; 95% CI 1.92–4.71; P < 0.001), longer fracture to operation duration (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.19–1.30; P < 0.001) were associated with increased risk for postoperative medical complications. COPD (OR 2.10; 95% CI 1.05–4.17; P = 0.035), dementia (OR 3.00; 95% CI 1.11–7.94; P = 0.031), postoperative medical complications (OR 4.99; 95% CI 2.68–9.28; P < 0.001), longer fracture to operation duration (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.04–1.19; P = 0.002) were associated with increased risk for 3-month mortality.ConclusionsIn conclusion, we found that postoperative medical morbidity and 3-month mortality in patients with hip fracture underwent HA were 21.90% and 5.20%, respectively, during the COVID-19. COPD, dementia and longer fracture to operation duration were associated with negative outcome in patients with hip fracture underwent HA during the COVID-19.

An independent, external validation and component analysis of the Surviving Penetrating Injury to the Brain score for civilian cranial gunshot injuries.

The Surviving Penetrating Injury to the Brain (SPIN) score utilizes clinical variables to estimate in-hospital and 6-month mortality for patients with civilian cranial gunshot wounds (cGSWs) and demonstrated good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.880) in an initial validation study. The goal of this study was to provide an external, independent validation of the SPIN score for in-hospital and 6-month mortality. To accomplish this, the authors retrospectively reviewed 6 years of data from their institutional trauma registry. Variables used to determine SPIN score were collected, including sex, transfer status, injury motive, pupillary reactivity, motor component of the Glasgow Coma Scale (mGCS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), and international normalized ratio (INR) at admission. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified variables associated with mortality. The authors compared AUC between models by using a nonparametric test for equality. Of the 108 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 101 had all SPIN score components available. The SPIN model had an AUC of 0.962. The AUC for continuous mGCS score alone (0.932) did not differ significantly from the AUC for the full SPIN model (p = 0.26). The AUC for continuous mGCS score (0.932) was significantly higher compared to categorical mGCS score (0.891, p = 0.005). Use of only mGCS score resulted in fewer exclusions due to missing data. No additional variable included in the predictive model alongside continuous mGCS score was a significant predictor of inpatient mortality, 6-month mortality, or increased model discrimination. Given these findings, continuous 6-point mGCS score may be sufficient as a generalizable predictor of inpatient and 6-month mortality in patients with cGSW, demonstrating excellent discrimination and reduced bias due to missing data.

Effect of Red Cell Distribution Width on the Prognosis of Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The link between red cell distribution width (RDW) and prognosis of traumatic brain injury (TBI) is controversial. Whether RDW can increase the prognostic value of established predictors remains unknown. This study aimed to provide supportive evidence for the prognostic value of RDW. Clinical data of 1488 patients with TBI were extracted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III database and classified into 2 groups: 1) one with RDW <14.5% (n= 1061) and 2) the other with RDW ≥14.5% (n= 427). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the relationship between RDW and outcomes. Stratified analyses and interactions were also performed. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the International Mission for Prognoses and Clinical Trial Design in TBI (IMPACT) core and extended models with and without RDW. After adjusting for confounding factors, RDW was an independent risk consideration for TBI prognoses; the odds ratios were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 2.50) and 1.89 (95% CI: 1.35, 2.64) for hospital mortality and 6-month mortality, respectively. This association was crucial for patients with a Glasgow Coma Score of 3-12 (odds ratio, 2.79; 95% CI: 1.33, 5.87). For 6-month mortality, when RDW was added to the core and extended IMPACT models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased from 0.833 to 0.851 (P= 0.001) and from 0.842 to 0.855 (P= 0.002), respectively. Elevated RDW is an independent risk consideration for hospital and 6-month mortality rates. When RDW was added to the IMPACT core and extended models, it improved its predictive ability for 6-month mortality in patients with TBI.

Brain symmetry index predicts 3-month mortality in patients with acute large hemispheric infarction.

Quantitative electroencephalography data are helpful to predict outcomes of cerebral infarction patients. The study was performed to evaluate the value of brain symmetry index by quantitative electroencephalography in predicting 3-month mortality of large hemispheric infarction. We studied a prospective, consecutive series of patients with large supratentorial cerebral infarction confirmed within 3 days from the onset in 2 intensive care units from August 2017 to February 2020. The electroencephalography was recorded once admission. The brain symmetry index (BSI) which is divided into BSIfast and BSIslow were calculated for each electrodes pair. The outcome was mortality at 3 months after the onset. A total of 38 patients were included. The subjects were divided into the mortality group (15 patients) and survival group (23 patients). Of the BSIfast and BSIslow at each electrodes pair, higher BSIfastC3-C4, higher BSIslowC3-C4, and higher BSIslowO1-O2 were noticed in the mortality group than that in the survival group at 3 months (P = .001; P = .010; P = .009). Multivariable analysis indicated that BSIfastC3-C4 was an independent predictor of 3-month mortality (odds ratio = 1.059, 95%CI 1.003, 1.119, P = .039). BSIfastC3-C4 could significant predict 3-month mortality (area under curve = 0.805, P = .005). And when we combined BSIfastC3-C4, Glasgow Coma Scale and infarct volume together to predict the 3-month mortality, the predicted value increased (area under curve = 0.840, P = .002). BSIfastC3-C4 could independently predict the 3-month mortality of large hemispheric infarction. The combination marker which includes Glasgow Coma Scale, infarct volume, and BSIfastC3-C4 has a better diagnostic value. Further clinical trials with a large sample size are still needed.

The role of cardiac troponin-I as a prognostic tool for mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with significant morbidity and mortality, with cardiovascular involvement being usual. Elevations in cardiac Troponin-I level has proposed as an independent biomarker for mortality among patients with COVID-19. Aim To evaluate the role of high sensivity Troponin-I (hs-TnI) level at hospital admission in predicting 30 day in-hospital mortality and 6-month mortality in patients hospitalized with a COVID-19 diagnosis. Methods We performed a retrospective single-center cohort study including consecutive patients aged 18 years and older who were admitted for COVID-19, during a 1-year period (n=818). We excluded patients with acute coronary syndrome (n=23), patients with acute heart failure (n=42), and patients in which hs-TnI level was not dosed at admission (n=163). Patients were divided into two groups according to hs-TnI levels: hs-TnI &amp;lt;19.8 vs hs-TnI ≥19.8 pg/mL. Primary outcomes were 30-day in-hospital mortality and 6-months mortality. According to the data distribution, appropriate statistical tests were conducted to compare independent samples. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze mortality risk. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were obtained to determine the discriminative power of hs-TnI as a predictor of mortality. (Figure 1). Results This cohort included 590 patients. Mean age was 71 ≥±15 years and 52.4% were men. Overall, 209 patients (35.4%) had elevated hs-TnI levels and 381 patients had normal hs-TnI levels. Individuals in the hs-TnI ≥19.8 pg/mL group were older (80±11 vs 66±14 years, p&amp;lt;0.001) and presented higher prevalence of chronic heart failure (24.9% vs 7.1%, p&amp;lt;0.001), hypertension (77.0% vs 57.5%, p&amp;lt;0.001), atrial fibrillation/flutter (19.1% vs 5.5%, p&amp;lt;0.001), prior stroke (12.4% vs 5.2%, p=0.001) and ischemic heart disease (12.4% vs 3.7%, p&amp;lt;0.001). There was no difference in length of hospital stay between the groups (8.0 [IQR 9.6] in hs-TnI 19.8 pg/mL group vs 9.0 [IQR 8.0] normal hs-TnI group, p=0.669). Troponin-I was the only independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 3.80, CI 95%: 2.44–5.93, p&amp;lt;0.001), see Table 1. The troponin levels had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curv (AUC) with an AUC of 0.705 (95% CI: 0.667–0.742, p&amp;lt;0.001) for association with the in-hospital mortality (figure 1). There was no difference in 6-months mortality between the two groups. Conclusion Acute myocardial injury is common in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. In the present study a TnI level ≥19.8 pg/mL was predictor of 30 days in-hospital mortality, suggesting that raised levels of this biomarker is associated with adverse prognosis. This tool might be useful for COVID-19 patient risk stratification. Further studies are needed to provide robust data and reliable recommendations on this theme. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Very Early Discharge After Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Mortality Outcomes at Six Months

BackgroundCurrent guidelines recommend that low risk patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and undergoing uncomplicated primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) can be discharged home in 48–72 h. We report the safety of early discharge in STEMI patients undergoing uncomplicated PPCI after 24-h stay in-hospital. MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive patients presenting with STEMI between January 2014 and December 2020. One- and 6-month mortality rates were compared between patients who underwent next day (early discharge group) and two days in-hospital stay (standard discharge group). ResultsOf 6119 STEMI patients, 4033 were included in the analysis, of whom 1674 (42 %) underwent early discharge. Patients in the early discharge group were younger, more likely to be male, and had a lower peak troponin. Both groups had similar ischemia- and door-to-balloon time, but anterior STEMI were less frequent in the early discharge group. The 1- and 6-month mortality rate for the whole cohort was 0.6 % and 1.3 %, respectively. After adjustment, there were no significant differences in the 1-month [HR 0.54; 95 % CI (0.20 to 1.47), P = 0.23] and 6-month mortality [HR 0.73; 95 % CI (0.38 to 1.41), P = 0.35] between early and standard discharge groups. Age, admission heart rate and chronic obstructive lung disease were identified as independent predictors of 6-month mortality in patients who underwent early discharge strategy. ConclusionOur data confirms safety of next day discharge of patients presenting with STEMI after successful PPCI and uncomplicated post-procedural course.

Identification of cardiovascular and molecular prognostic factors for the morbidity and mortality in COVID-19-sepsis (ICROVID): Protocol for a prospective multi-centre cohort study.

IntroductionSevere COVID-19 constitutes a form of viral sepsis. Part of the specific pathophysiological pattern of this condition is the occurrence of cardiovascular events. These include pulmonary embolism, arrhythmias and cardiomyopathy as manifestations of extra-pulmonary organ dysfunction. Hitherto, the prognostic impact of these cardiovascular events and their predisposing risk factors remains unclear. This study aims to explore this question in two cohorts of viral sepsis–COVID-19 and influenza–in order to identify new theragnostic strategies to improve the short- and long-term outcome of these two diseases.Methods and analysisIn this prospective multi-centre cohort study, clinical assessment will take place during the acute and post-acute phase of sepsis and be complemented by molecular laboratory analyses. Specifically, echocardiography and cardiovascular risk factor documentation will be performed during the first two weeks after sepsis onset. Aside from routine haematological and biochemical laboratory tests, molecular phenotyping will comprise analyses of the metabolome, lipidome and immune status. The primary endpoint of this study is the difference in 3-month mortality of patients with and without septic cardiomyopathy in COVID-19 sepsis. Patients will be followed up until 6 months after onset of sepsis via telephone interviews and questionnaires. The results will be compared with a cohort of patients with influenza sepsis as well as previous cohorts of patients with bacterial sepsis and healthy controls.Ethics and disseminationApproval was obtained from the Ethics Committee of the Friedrich Schiller University Jena (2020-2052-BO). The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at appropriate conferences.Trial registrationDRKS00024162.

Prospective Comparison of Medical Oncologists and a Machine Learning Model to Predict 3-Month Mortality in Patients With Metastatic Solid Tumors

To date, oncologist and model prognostic performance have been assessed independently and mostly retrospectively; however, how model prognostic performance compares with oncologist prognostic performance prospectively remains unknown. To compare oncologist performance with a model in predicting 3-month mortality for patients with metastatic solid tumors in an outpatient setting. This prognostic study evaluated prospective predictions for a cohort of patients with metastatic solid tumors seen in outpatient oncology clinics at a National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center and associated satellites between December 6, 2019, and August 6, 2021. Oncologists (57 physicians and 17 advanced practice clinicians) answered a 3-month surprise question (3MSQ) within clinical pathways. A model was trained with electronic health record data from January 1, 2013, to April 24, 2019, to identify patients at high risk of 3-month mortality and deployed silently in October 2019. Analysis was limited to oncologist prognostications with a model prediction within the preceding 30 days. Three-month surprise question and gradient-boosting binary classifier. The primary outcome was performance comparison between oncologists and the model to predict 3-month mortality. The primary performance metric was the positive predictive value (PPV) at the sensitivity achieved by the medical oncologists with their 3MSQ answers. A total of 74 oncologists answered 3099 3MSQs for 2041 patients with advanced cancer (median age, 62.6 [range, 18-96] years; 1271 women [62.3%]). In this cohort with a 15% prevalence of 3-month mortality and 30% sensitivity for both oncologists and the model, the PPV of oncologists was 34.8% (95% CI, 30.1%-39.5%) and the PPV of the model was 60.0% (95% CI, 53.6%-66.3%). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 81.2% (95% CI, 79.1%-83.3%). The model significantly outperformed the oncologists in short-term mortality. In this prognostic study, the model outperformed oncologists overall and within the breast and gastrointestinal cancer cohorts in predicting 3-month mortality for patients with advanced cancer. These findings suggest that further studies may be useful to examine how model predictions could improve oncologists' prognostic confidence and patient-centered goal-concordant care at the end of life.

Coronary artery calcifications and 6-month mortality in patients with COVID-19 without known atheromatous disease

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent risk factor for major adverse cardiovascular events; however, its impact on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality remains unclear, especially in patients without known atheromatous disease. To evaluate the association between CAC visual score and 6-month mortality in patients without history of atheromatous disease hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. A single-centre observational cohort study was conducted, involving 293 consecutive patients with COVID-19 in Paris, France, between 13 March and 30 April 2020, with a 6-month follow-up. Patients with a history of ischaemic stroke or coronary or peripheral artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 6 months according to CAC score, which was assessed by analysing images obtained after the first routine non-electrocardiogram-gated computed tomography scan performed to detect COVID-19 pneumonia. A total of 251 patients (mean age 64.8±16.7 years) were included in the analysis. Fifty-one patients (20.3%) died within 6 months. The mortality rate increased with the magnitude of calcifications, and was 10/101 (9.9%), 15/66 (22.7%), 10/34 (29.4%) and 16/50 (32.0%) for the no CAC, mild CAC, moderate CAC and heavy CAC groups, respectively (p=0.004). Compared with the no calcification group, adjusted risk of death increased progressively with CAC: hazard ratio (HR) 2.37 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-5.27), HR 3.1 (95% CI 1.29-7.45) and HR 4.02 (95% CI 1.82-8.88) in the mild, moderate and heavy CAC groups, respectively. Non-electrocardiogram-gated computed tomography during the initial pulmonary assessment of patients with COVID-19 without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease showed a high prevalence of mild, moderate and heavy CAC. CAC score was related to 6-month mortality, independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These results highlight the importance of CAC scoring for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and calls for attention to patients with high CAC.

Increased admission serum total bile acids can be associated with decreased 3-month mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke

BackgroundBile acids (BAs) not only play an important role in lipid metabolism and atherosclerosis but also have antiapoptotic and neuroprotective effects. However, few studies have focused on the relationship of the total bile acid (TBA) levels with the severity and prognosis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS).ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to investigate the potential associations of the fasting serum TBA levels on admission with the stroke severity, in-hospital complication incidence and 3 -month all-cause mortality in patients with AIS.MethodsA total of 777 consecutive AIS patients were enrolled in this study and were divided into four groups according to the quartiles of the serum TBA levels on admission. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to explore the relationship between the fasting TBA levels and the stroke severity, in-hospital complications, and 3-month mortality in AIS patients.ResultsPatients in group Q3 had the lowest risk of severe AIS (NIHSS > 10) regardless of the adjustments for confounders (P < 0.05). During hospitalization, 115 patients (14.8%) had stroke progression (NIHSS score increased by ≥ 2), and 222 patients (28.6%) developed at least one complication, with no significant difference among the four groups (P > 0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of pneumonia, urinary tract infection (UTI), hemorrhagic transformation (HT), gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), seizures or renal insufficiency (RI) among the four groups (P > 0.05). A total of 114 patients (14.7%) died from various causes (including in-hospital deaths) at the 3-month follow-up, including 42 (21.3%), 26 (13.3%), 19 (9.9%) and 27 (13.9%) patients in groups Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively, with significant differences (P = 0.013). After adjusting for confounding factors, the risk of death decreased (P -trend < 0.05) in groups Q2, Q3, and Q4 when compared with group Q1, and the OR values were 0.36 (0.16-0.80), 0.30 (0.13-0.70), and 0.29 (0.13-0.65), respectively.ConclusionsTBA levels were inversely associated with the 3-month mortality of AIS patients but were not significantly associated with the severity of stroke or the incidence of complications.

New risk scoring system for predicting 3-month mortality after acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AE-IPF) is often fatal. A straightforward staging system for AE-IPF would improve prognostication, guide patient management, and facilitate research. The aim of study is to develop a multidimensional prognostic AE-IPF staging system that uses commonly measured clinical variables. This retrospective study analyzed data from 353 consecutive patients with IPF admitted to our hospital during the period from January 2008 through January 2018. Multivariate analysis of information from a database of 103 recorded AE-IPF cases was used to identify factors associated with 3-month mortality. A clinical prediction model for AE-IPF was developed by using these retrospective data. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of this model. Logistic regression analysis showed that PaO2/FiO2 ratio, diffuse HRCT pattern, and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) were significantly associated with 3-month mortality; thus, PaO2/FiO2 ratio < 250 (P), CRP ≥ 5.5 (C), and diffuse HRCT pattern (radiological) (R) were included in the final model. A model using continuous predictors and a simple point-scoring system (PCR index) was developed. For the PCR index, the area under the ROC curve was 0.7686 (P < 0.0001). The sensitivity of the scoring system was 78.6% and specificity was 67.8%. The PCR index identified four severity grades (0, 1, 2, and 3), which were associated with a 3-month mortality of 7.7%, 29.4%, 54.8%, and 80%, respectively. The present PCR models using commonly measured clinical and radiologic variables predicted 3-month mortality in patients with AE-IPF.

Development and validation of BLOOMY prediction scores for 14-day and 6-month mortality in hospitalised adults with bloodstream infections: a multicentre, prospective, cohort study

The burden of bloodstream infections remains high worldwide and cannot be confined to short-term in-hospital mortality. We aimed to develop scores to predict short-term and long-term mortality in patients with bloodstream infections. The Bloodstream Infection due to Multidrug-resistant Organisms: Multicenter Study on Risk Factors and Clinical Outcomes (BLOOMY) study is a prospective, multicentre cohort study at six German tertiary care university hospitals to develop and validate two scores assessing 14-day and 6-month mortality in patients with bloodstream infections. We excluded patients younger than 18 years or who were admitted to an ophthalmology or psychiatry ward. Microbiological, clinical, laboratory, treatment, and survival data were prospectively collected on day 0 and day 3 and then from day 7 onwards, weekly. Participants were followed up for 6 months. All patients in the derivation cohort who were alive on day 3 were included in the analysis. Predictive scores were developed using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models with a machine-learning approach. Validation was completed using the C statistic and predictive accuracy was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. Between Feb 1, 2017, and Jan 31, 2019, 2568 (61·5%) of 4179 eligible patients were recruited into the derivation cohort. The in-hospital mortality rate was 23·75% (95% CI 22·15-25·44; 610 of 2568 patients) and the 6-month mortality rate was 41·55% (39·54-43·59; 949 of 2284). The model predictors for 14-day mortality (C statistic 0·873, 95% CI 0·849-0·896) and 6-month mortality (0·807, 0·784-0·831) included age, body-mass index, platelet and leukocyte counts, C-reactive protein concentrations, malignancy (ie, comorbidity), in-hospital acquisition, and pathogen. Additional predictors were, for 14-day mortality, mental status, hypotension, and the need for mechanical ventilation on day 3 and, for 6-month mortality, focus of infection, in-hospital complications, and glomerular filtration rate at the end of treatment. The scores were validated in a cohort of 1023 patients with bloodstream infections, recruited between Oct 9, 2019, and Dec 31, 2020. The BLOOMY 14-day score showed a sensitivity of 61·32% (95% CI 51·81-70·04), a specificity of 86·36% (83·80-88·58), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 37·57% (30·70-44·99), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 94·35% (92·42-95·80). The BLOOMY 6-month score showed a sensitivity of 69·93% (61·97-76·84), a specificity of 66·44% (61·86-70·73), a PPV of 40·82% (34·85-47·07), and a NPV of 86·97% (82·91-90·18). The BLOOMY scores showed good discrimination and predictive values and could support the development of protocols to manage bloodstream infections and also help to estimate the short-term and long-term burdens of bloodstream infections. DZIF German Center for Infection Research. For the German translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.