New risk scoring system for predicting 3-month mortality after acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Abstract

Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AE-IPF) is often fatal. A straightforward staging system for AE-IPF would improve prognostication, guide patient management, and facilitate research. The aim of study is to develop a multidimensional prognostic AE-IPF staging system that uses commonly measured clinical variables. This retrospective study analyzed data from 353 consecutive patients with IPF admitted to our hospital during the period from January 2008 through January 2018. Multivariate analysis of information from a database of 103 recorded AE-IPF cases was used to identify factors associated with 3-month mortality. A clinical prediction model for AE-IPF was developed by using these retrospective data. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of this model. Logistic regression analysis showed that PaO2/FiO2 ratio, diffuse HRCT pattern, and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) were significantly associated with 3-month mortality; thus, PaO2/FiO2 ratio < 250 (P), CRP ≥ 5.5 (C), and diffuse HRCT pattern (radiological) (R) were included in the final model. A model using continuous predictors and a simple point-scoring system (PCR index) was developed. For the PCR index, the area under the ROC curve was 0.7686 (P < 0.0001). The sensitivity of the scoring system was 78.6% and specificity was 67.8%. The PCR index identified four severity grades (0, 1, 2, and 3), which were associated with a 3-month mortality of 7.7%, 29.4%, 54.8%, and 80%, respectively. The present PCR models using commonly measured clinical and radiologic variables predicted 3-month mortality in patients with AE-IPF.