100-year Event Research Articles

A hazai árvízvédelmi stratégia főbb irányai

Formulation of a country’s flood protection s trategy in every case depends on the technical-socio-economic conditions of the given country. The flood safety requirements are highly influenced by the country’s performance and financial situation. On the Hungarian rivers, flood safety is based on the 100-year return period maximum flood events and the flood safety requirements must be developed accordingly. The state must guarantee the success of the flood protection up to this flood safety level. The water management sector has also formed the Hungarian flood protection strategy to this flood safety level as an operator of primary flood protection structures. In the past decades, due the changes in socio-economic conditions and the rise of extremities caused by climate change have caused that flood protection strategy had to be changed several times. In my article I show the changes and the effects of changes on the operational flood protection activities and preventive flood protection strategy.

FLOODING INTERVALS IN ALBANIA

One of the most dangerous natural disasters facing many countries in the world including Albania are floods. Albania is quite exposed to this danger as the river and stream system is a major threat to the floods that are generally originating from rainy rabes.Floods in the lower flow cause great damage as they are more frequent and catch larger surfaces. These are formed by heavy rainfall and high intensity rainfall, which fill the soils with water and cause leakage out of the riverbed.The hydrographic basin includes an area of 43 305 km², in which 14 557 km² belong to the Drin River catchment and the River Vjosa, which surrounds parts of Greece, Macedonia and Kosovo. The eight main rivers of Albania (Drini, Buna, Mati, Ishmi, Erzeni, Shkumbini, Vjosa and Semani) are grouped in 6 watersheds that cross the country from East to West.47Albania has been hit on average by one flood per year. The Repeat Period (also known as the repetition interval) is an estimate of the time interval between events such as flooding, and that are important in terms of intensity and size.The period of theoretical Repeatability is the inverse of the number of events expected to occur within a year, ie a 10-year-old earthquake 1/10 = 0.1 or 10% chance to occur more than once in 10 years. A 50-year flood is 0:02 or 2% likely to happen more often in any year. This does not mean that a 100-year flood will be repeated regularly every 100 years, despite the determination of the name "repetition period". A 100-year event could happen once, twice, more or any time during this period of 100 years.The article will analyze the period of flood repetition as well as the risk map of floods from the recovery period, 100 years expressed by the PPS standard (peak flow rates).

Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa.

Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate

Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate.

The potential effect of a 100-year pluvial flood event on metro accessibility and ridership: A case study of central Shanghai, China

The Shanghai Metro constitutes a sizeable share of the municipal public transit. This paper presents a gravity-based approach for evaluating the potential effect of a 100-year pluvial flood (PF) event on metro accessibility and ridership. Since physical geographers have examined PF hazards and human geographers have analyzed metro accessibility separately, we seek to fill the research gap through examining metro accessibility and ridership together under adverse circumstances. To this end, road inundations are initially modeled by FloodMap-HydroInundation2D. Accessibility to metro stations by three access modes (walking, cycling, and driving) is measured through three impedance functions (inverse power, negative exponential, and modified Gaussian). Ridership measure mainly concerns the distance-decay effect on stations' attraction for passengers. The results indicate that inundation depth on more than 95% of the road links would reach 10–20 cm in the PF scenario, and road links with inundation deeper than 20 cm and 30 cm account for 47% and 15% of the road network respectively, which imposes notable restrictions on access journeys especially by cycling and driving. Metro accessibility in central Shanghai is quite equitable, even in the PF scenario. 87% of the communities can access the metro stations at the medium and medium-high accessibility levels in the normal scenario, but 80% can access only at the low and medium levels in the PF scenario. Due to the inaccessibility of neighboring station(s) in the PF scenario, 15 more stations may face the challenge of serving more than 50,000 passengers, which is much larger than their normal ridership. These findings have important implications for the formulation of safer usage of public transport in the face of heavy rainfall and associated flood events.

Multiyear Trends in Solute Concentrations and Fluxes From a Suburban Watershed: Evaluating Effects of 100‐Year Flood Events

AbstractAnthropogenic activities have increased solute concentrations and fluxes in rivers globally. Increases in salt, dissolved organic carbon, and inorganic nutrients have been attributed to changes in atmospheric deposition, road salt and fertilizer application, and urbanization. Extremely large flood events, which are increasing in frequency and duration, could also alter river chemistry by flushing various solute reservoirs within watersheds and effectively “resetting” the linkages between land and river. We evaluated changes in concentrations and fluxes of inorganic nutrients, dissolved organic matter, and salts and major ions across 12 to 15 years in a rural‐suburban watershed in New Hampshire, USA. During this period, the human imprint on the landscape (impervious surfaces and population density) increased, but two 100‐year flood events also occurred. We found that concentrations and fluxes of chloride and potassium, fluxes of all other major ions, and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon declined over time, but concentrations and fluxes of inorganic nutrients and dissolved organic nitrogen were unchanged. The minor declines in concentrations were of similar magnitude to declines previously observed in other watersheds that did not experience extreme flood events. We observed a shift in nitrate (NO3−) concentration‐discharge behavior from enrichment in the years prior to and including the floods to chemostasis after the floods, but for both time periods NO3− concentrations were weakly related to discharge. Our results suggest a limited role of extreme events in the biogeochemistry of urbanizing watersheds and emphasize the importance of long‐term records and multiple analytical approaches to understand the dynamics of complex watersheds.

A local-regional scaling-invariant Bayesian GEV model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a future climate

Future changes in rainfall patterns induced by climate changes will affect society and ecosystems, and quantifying these changes is of utmost importance for the management of hydroclimate risk. In particular, the estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data is a routine procedure in urban hydrology and hydraulic studies and should be revisited to reflect future changes in rainfall variability. In this work, we propose a novel methodology based on the scaling-invariant property of rainfall duration versus intensity to estimate parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution at sub-daily scales. A Bayesian inference framework is developed so that uncertainties are reduced and can be easily propagated to IDF curves. The proposed model can be employed to: (i) improve local (at-site) GEV estimates for sites with limited rainfall records; (ii) estimate GEV parameters at sub-daily scales and construct IDF curves for sites where only daily rainfall records are available (partially gauged sites); (iii) construct regional IDF curves for homogeneous hydrologic regions; and (iv) update local and regional IDF curves from simulations of future daily rainfall. The model is tested using historical rainfall data from 18 gauges located in the Han River Watershed in South Korea, and projected climate change scenarios RCP 6 and RCP 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2-AO model. When considering historical data, the results show that the model satisfactorily estimate IDF curves for both gauged and partially gauged sites. In future scenarios, the model reveals a substantial increase in rainfall events of rare intensity (large return periods), mostly due to changes in the rainfall variability rather than changes in the average rainfall. Particularly, for a 100-year return period event, we expect an increase of about 23% in scenario RCP 6 and about 30% under scenario RCP 8.5 when projected using regional IDF curves. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first statistical approach in the literature to assess future changes in regional IDF curves, which in our opinion is more suitable than evaluating local estimates only.

Identification of storm events and contiguous coastal sections for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change

Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To alleviate some of the computational costs, local impacts of individual coastal storms can be explored by first identifying particular events or scenarios of interest and dynamically modeling those events in detail. In this study, an efficient approach to selecting storm events for subsequent deterministic detailed modeling of coastal flooding is presented. The approach identifies locally relevant scenarios derived from regional datasets spanning long time-periods and covering large geographic areas. This is done by identifying storm events from global climate models using a robust, yet computationally simple approach for calculating total water level proxies at the shore, assuming a linear superposition of the important processes contributing to the overall total water level. Clustering of the total water level time-series is used to define coherent coastal cells where similar return period water level extrema occur in response to region-wide storms. Results show that the more severe but rare coastal flood events (e.g., the 100-year (yr) event) typically occur from the same storm across the region, but that a number of different storms are responsible for the less severe but more frequent local extreme water levels (e.g., the 1-yr event). This new ‘storm selection’ approach is applied to the Southern California Bight, a region of varying shoreline orientations that is subject to wave refraction across complex bathymetry, and shadowing, focusing, diffraction, and dissipation of wave energy by islands. Results indicate that wave runup dominates total water level extremes at this study site, highlighting the importance of downscaling global-scale models to nearshore waves when seeking accurate projections of local coastal hazards in response to climate change.

Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.

The global flood protection savings provided by coral reefs

Coral reefs can provide significant coastal protection benefits to people and property. Here we show that the annual expected damages from flooding would double, and costs from frequent storms would triple without reefs. For 100-year storm events, flood damages would increase by 91% to $US 272 billion without reefs. The countries with the most to gain from reef management are Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico, and Cuba; annual expected flood savings exceed $400 M for each of these nations. Sea-level rise will increase flood risk, but substantial impacts could happen from reef loss alone without better near-term management. We provide a global, process-based valuation of an ecosystem service across an entire marine biome at (sub)national levels. These spatially explicit benefits inform critical risk and environmental management decisions, and the expected benefits can be directly considered by governments (e.g., national accounts, recovery plans) and businesses (e.g., insurance).

Future irrigation expansion outweigh groundwater recharge gains from climate change in semi-arid India

Simultaneous effects of future climate and irrigation intensification on surface and groundwater systems are not well understood. Efforts are needed to understand the future groundwater availability and associated surface flows under business-as-usual management to formulate policy changes to improve water sustainability. We combine measurements with integrated modeling (MIKE SHE/MIKE11) to evaluate the effects of future climate (2040–2069), with and without irrigation expansion, on water levels and flows in an agricultural watershed in low-storage crystalline aquifer region of south India. Demand and supply management changes, including improved efficiency of irrigation water as well as energy uses, were evaluated. Increased future rainfall (7–43%, from 5 Global Climate Models) with no further expansion of irrigation wells increased the groundwater recharge (10–55%); however, most of the recharge moved out of watershed as increased baseflow (17–154%) with a small increase in net recharge (+0.2mm/year). When increased rainfall was considered with projected increase in irrigation withdrawals, both hydrologic extremes of well drying and flooding were predicted. A 100-year flow event was predicted to be a 5-year event in the future. If irrigation expansion follows the historical trends, earlier and more frequent well drying, a source of farmers' distress in India, was predicted to worsen in the future despite the recharge gains from increased rainfall. Storage and use of excess flows, improved irrigation efficiency with flood to drip conversion in 25% of irrigated area, and reduced energy subsidy (free electricity for 3.5h compared to 7h/day; $1 billion savings) provided sufficient water savings to support future expansion in irrigated areas while mitigating well drying as well as flooding. Reductions in energy subsidy to fund the implementation of economically desirable (high benefit-cost ratio) demand (drip irrigation) and supply (water capture and storage) management was recommended to achieve a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in semi-arid regions.

How Likely Is a 100-Year Rainfall Event During the Next Ten Years?

This 4-page fact sheet describes proper interpretation of rainfall event probabilities and recurrence intervals, particularly as they are used by engineers and water resources managers in the design and construction of hydraulic structures, such as dams, levees, and canals. This article focuses on rainfall, but its explanations and concepts can be applied to other extreme hydrologic phenomena such as flood and drought. Written by Young Gu Her, William Lusher, and Kati Migliaccio, and published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, March 2018. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/ae523

Recent developments in probabilistic pushover models for the reliability re-assessment of fixed offshore structures

Re-assessment of existing fixed offshore structures in mature basins, to demonstrate they remain safe and reliable whilst optimising returns on the considerable investment, is a constant challenge for operators. This often requires the use of a probabilistic framework employing statistical techniques for environmental load predictions and nonlinear material/geometry models to determine the structural resistance. Stepping out, from code-based strength and loading recipes based on linear structural analysis and prescribed 100-year load events, to a probabilistic framework employing nonlinear structural models and a target annual failure probability, is not a straightforward task. This article explores the following aspects that engineers face when undertaking fixed platform re-assessments: (1) how to progress with an analysis when the capacity is limited by the initiation of tubular joint cracking and therefore susceptible to low cycle fatigue degradation; (2) how to determine system strength uncertainty for a given failure mode when each component has a varying contribution to the overall resistance; and (3) how to quantify the influence of gravity loading on system strength uncertainty.

The Effect of Consecutive Earthquakes on a Composite Structure Utilising RBRFs

Low-damage technologies have been developed in recent years which limit the damage imposed on structural elements when a building is subjected to a very rare earthquake event. This has been achieved by a capacity design approach applied to the connections in which the ductile part of the connections yields and all other structural elements remain elastic. Examples of low-damage connections are the sliding hinge joint in steel buildings and variations associated with this, and a combination of a post-tensioning system and mild steel dissipater in precast concrete and timber buildings. A system developed by the authors uses replaceable buckling restrained fuses (RBRFs) that do not require a post-tensioning system to be used conjointly. This system has been studied both experimentally and numerically. This paper considers the use of RBRFs as an energy dissipation device installed at beam-column connections in composite moment-resistant frames. These RBRFs could be replaced after a major event, and hence would cause little disruption. A 2D building frame has been modelled for a case study and its behaviour under 100-year, 500-year and 2500-year return period earthquake events has been summarised. A consecutive earthquake with a return period of 500 years or 2500 years has been applied to the building following both 500-year and 2500-year return period earthquake events. This study was performed since there is a possibility that the consecutive earthquake would occur prior to the replacement of the RBRFs. The results show that the building could still sustain the consecutive earthquakes with little additional residual displacement.

PROBABLE RAINFALL IN GDAŃSK IN VIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE

One of the manifestations of climate changes is the occurrence of a greater number of precipitation events, characterized by greater rain intensity that affects the economic stability of cities. Gdansk is an example of a city in which such events have occurred since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Due to the altitude differences in the area of Gdansk city (between –2 m and 180 m a.s.l.), the occurrence of extreme atmospheric precipitation almost immediately causes hydrological effects in the water network consisting of several streams of montane character, which flow eastwards from the plateau of the Kashubian Lakeland. Meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Service (IMGW-PIB) are located in the coastal zone (Port Polnocny/Northern Port, Świbno) and in the highest part of the city (the Rebiechowo airport). Because this is insufficient, the city of Gdansk has been expanding the local rain monitoring network since 2001, currently having reliable 10-year observation data sequences. The said network is operated by the Gdansk Water municipal company. Climate changes resulting in different characteristics of rainfall episodes in Gdansk naturally influence the determination of the probability of their occurrence. According to the rainfall model developed by Bogdanowicz and Stachy at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, at least 4 rainfall events lasting for over 8 hours in the last 17 years should be classified as a 100-year rain event. One of these extended the parameters of a 300-year rain event; whereas we asses the rain in the year 2016, when even 170 mm of rainfall was recorded on July 14, as at least a 500-year rain event. During this period, several-minute events were also recorded, which also exceeded the parameters of a 100-year rain event. The paper presents precipitation models for the region of Gdansk. Based on the maximum annual daily rainfall from Rebiechowo meteorological station from the years 1974–2017, an analysis of changes in precipitation values corresponding to certain probabilities of occurrence was conducted. An assessment was also made of the projected decrease in the value of precipitation in relation to hydro-technical constructions, road-engineering structures, and rainwater drainage systems in view of changing legal regulations, as well as the latest trends related to the management of rainwater.

Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C global warming levels

To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 °C and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events (longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, respectively. The projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.

Sustainability-Based Flood Hazard Mapping of the Swannanoa River Watershed

An integrated framework is presented for sustainability-based flood hazard mapping of the Swannanoa River watershed in the state of North Carolina, U.S. The framework uses a hydrologic model for rainfall–runoff transformation, a two-dimensional unsteady hydraulic model flood simulation and a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making technique for flood hazard mapping. Economic, social, and environmental flood hazards are taken into account. The importance of each hazard is quantified through a survey to the experts. Utilizing the proposed framework, sustainability-based flood hazard mapping is performed for the 100-year design event. As a result, the overall flood hazard is provided in each geographic location. The sensitivity of the overall hazard with respect to the weights of the three hazard components were also investigated. While the conventional flood management approach is to assess the environmental impacts of mitigation measures after a set of feasible options are selected, the presented framework incorporates the environmental impacts into the analysis concurrently with the economic and social influences. Thereby, it provides a more sustainable perspective of flood management and can greatly help the decision makers to make better-informed decisions by clearly understanding the impacts of flooding on economy, society and environment.

The impact of urbanization on the streamflows and the 100-year floodplain extent of the Sims Bayou in Houston, Texas

ABSTRACTThe Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area has experienced rapid population growth in the past decades. The impact of this growth on the streamflows and 100-year floodplain extent in the Sims Bayou over the 1980–2000 period has been studied and is reported. Development and imperviousness over time was determined using parcel data provided by the Harris County Appraisal District and Fort Bend Central Appraisal District, and aerial photographs. The change in the annual streamflow volume over time was studied, and found to have a statistically significant increasing trend. A similar analysis of the annual instantaneous peak flows showed that, although an increasing trend in their values is not apparent, there is a statistically discernible increase in their variability. Strong relationships between the annual streamflow volume and annual instantaneous peak flow, and the imperviousness were found. The imperviousness increased from 15% in 1980 to 18% in 2000. For the 100-year 24-h storm event, hydrologic analysis with HEC-HMS resulted in peak flows of 41,000 cfs under the 1980 development conditions, and 43,000 cfs under the 2000 conditions. A HEC-RAS hydraulic analysis of the flood inundation extents, resulting from these peak flows, estimated 6500 acres flooded in 1980, and 7500 acres in 2000. Assuming that residential parcels have an area between 0.12 and 0.30 acres, it was concluded that, because of development in the 1980s, around an additional 2100 households were subject to flooding in a 100-year event, while, because of development in the 1990s, a further additional 1400 households. Although development is needed to accommodate population and employment growth, the negative consequences to people and the built environment can be devastating. Local government implementation of low-impact development policies is needed to reduce the effect of urbanization on the watershed’s hydrology and hydraulics, and also to limit adverse flooding impacts.

Slope stability and landform design in a coarse coal refuse reclamation.

Restoration of abandoned mine lands is on-going in Appalachia and across the United States. One potential technique to reclaim these areas is through the use of geomorphic landforming combined with paper mill residuals used as a soil amendment. The geomorphic approach attempts to approximate the long-term, steady state landform condition, leading to reduced erosional adjustment as compared to standard engineered fill designs. This study analyzed regraded mine refuse slopes for safety and erosion sustainability under a 100-year storm event for the Royal Scot refuse pile located near Anjean, WV. The project involved the design and evaluation of a cap and cover system composed of two layers. The first layer is a 60 cm. compacted barrier layer (hydraulic barrier) and second is a 30cm vegetative growth layer. The focus of the analysis was the effectiveness of the hydraulic barrier layer and the final slope stability of the system. A reclamation design was prepared and 3D finite element modeling was performed to assess ground surface terrain profiles considering weather and material strength. Results from the modeling indicate that for a 100-year storm event, the slope remains stable with a factor of safety ranging from 1.3 to 1.9 for different slope profiles. After the 100-year storm event, the hydraulic barrier reached a 20% degree of saturation proving its effectiveness with minimizing infiltration into the reclamation fill.

KASTORIA “BLIND” ACTIVE FAULT: HAZARDOUS SEISMOGENIC FAULT OF THE NW GREECE

The Aliakmon river bed, as well as a series of certain parallel narrow grabens, striking NW-SE are filled with Neogene-Quaternary deposits; thus showing the existence of the covered, “blind”, fault zone, which borders the Eastern edge of Meso-Hellenic Trench and passes in close vicinity to the Kastoria town. Distribution of earthquakes epicentres (M≥4.0, for the period of 1930-2009) along this segmented rupture zone, proves the existence at depth of an active seismogenic fault which has generated some strong earthquakes in the past: 1709, M = 6.0; 1812, M = 6.5 and 1894, M = 6.1 (~ 100-year Recurrence Time events). The calculations of Lapsed Rate characterizing the stage of the fault seismic cycle (LR = 115%) show that the active Kastoria fault could be in a pre-seismic stage of its seismic cycle. Applying the seismicity rates model (time-independent Gutenberg-Richter recurrence model) and using the fault seismicity parameters, obtained inside the fault influence zone, as input in EZ-FRISK® software, the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis has been carried out for the area of Kastoria town. The results show that calculated magnitude for event with 100- year recurrence time is ~6.1, which correspond to the magnitude of three events, occurred at the fault during the last 300 years (corresponding average slip rate . 3 mm/year). As the calculated Hazard Curve shows, the event of that range could give ground shaking in the Kastoria town in the order of 0.625 g at the spectral period of 0.3 sec.