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Random Forest Spatial Interpolation Techniques for Crop Yield Estimation at District Level

General Crop Estimation Surveys (GCES) based on Crop Cutting Experiments (CCEs) are conducted for estimation of crop yield following random sampling approach for almost all major crops. About 13 lakh CCEs are conducted every year which has now increased rapidly due to the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) which is yield based insurance scheme. As suggested by Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoA&FW), this number needs to be reduced drastically by developing sampling procedures based on the use of advanced technologies and advanced survey techniques for crop yield estimation. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop crop yield estimation procedures using Random Forest Spatial Interpolation (RFSI) technique including the spatial variables like spatial distance and nearest neighbours as covariates. RFSI is one of the most adaptable and user-friendly interpolation techniques, as well as one of the fastest in large training datasets. Estimates of yield of wheat were obtained for all the six tehsils of Barabanki district using the estimator under stratified two stage sampling technique. The district level estimates were also obtained by pooling area under wheat crop in each tehsil along with the district level estimate of crop yield, estimate of variance, estimate of standard error (SE) and percentage SE (%SE) of these estimates were also computed in order to make comparison. The results of this study suggest that the estimates derived using RFSI are comparable to kriging and superior to inverse distance weighting (IDW) for the prediction of yield at unknown locations using distance and nearest neighbours.

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Hectareage Prediction Models for Paddy Crop of Middle Gujarat

The present investigation was undertaken with a view to identify the models for predicting the hectareage of paddy crop of the middle Gujarat region. The investigation was carried out on the basis of secondary data covering the period of nineteen years, (1998-99 to 2016-17). The District level data relating to hectareage, production, productivity and farm harvest prices of paddy were obtained from the published and compiled information by Directorate of Agriculture, Gujarat State, Gandhinagar. The linear multiple regression technique (basically Nerlovian type) was employed. The eight single equation and four simultaneous equation (SE) models were tried for paddy crop, the following models were selected on the basis of the values of adjusted coefficient of multiple determination. SE model-III for paddy is given below.HEPD = 40960.532**** - 10.414*** HEBJ + 0.784 HEMZ - 1.187**** HEPDL + 3.720*** HEBJL + 5.588**** EYPD + 0.866 EYBJ - 6.205*** EYMZ- 6.833**** EPPD + 1.502 EPBJ (R2= 0.946)HEBJ = 3261.298 - 0.061 HEPD + 0.108 HEMZ - 0.093 HEPDL + 0.337 HEBJL + 0.441 EYPD + 0.220 EYBJ - 0.619 EYMZ - 0.594 EPPD + 0.227EPBJ (R2= 0.960)HEMZ = 1816.343 + 0.028 HEPD + 0.147 HEBJ + 0.220 HEBJL + 0.649 HEMZL - 0.120 EYPD - 0.176 EYBJ - 0.092 EYMZ - 0.226 EPMZ - 0.106EPBJ (R2= 0.850)*, **, ***, **** Significant at the 20, 10, 5, 1 percent level of significance, respectivelyFor the selected crops, SE model was recommended for prediction of the current hectareage on the basis of the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination ( R 2). For Paddy hectareage the main affecting factors viz., bajra hectareage, lagged hectareage of paddy, expected yield of maize and expected price of paddy. Expected yield and expected price of paddy were determining factors of bajra hectareage.

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