Hectareage Prediction Models for Paddy Crop of Middle Gujarat

Abstract

The present investigation was undertaken with a view to identify the models for predicting the hectareage of paddy crop of the middle Gujarat region. The investigation was carried out on the basis of secondary data covering the period of nineteen years, (1998-99 to 2016-17). The District level data relating to hectareage, production, productivity and farm harvest prices of paddy were obtained from the published and compiled information by Directorate of Agriculture, Gujarat State, Gandhinagar. The linear multiple regression technique (basically Nerlovian type) was employed. The eight single equation and four simultaneous equation (SE) models were tried for paddy crop, the following models were selected on the basis of the values of adjusted coefficient of multiple determination. SE model-III for paddy is given below.HEPD = 40960.532**** - 10.414*** HEBJ + 0.784 HEMZ - 1.187**** HEPDL + 3.720*** HEBJL + 5.588**** EYPD + 0.866 EYBJ - 6.205*** EYMZ- 6.833**** EPPD + 1.502 EPBJ (R2= 0.946)HEBJ = 3261.298 - 0.061 HEPD + 0.108 HEMZ - 0.093 HEPDL + 0.337 HEBJL + 0.441 EYPD + 0.220 EYBJ - 0.619 EYMZ - 0.594 EPPD + 0.227EPBJ (R2= 0.960)HEMZ = 1816.343 + 0.028 HEPD + 0.147 HEBJ + 0.220 HEBJL + 0.649 HEMZL - 0.120 EYPD - 0.176 EYBJ - 0.092 EYMZ - 0.226 EPMZ - 0.106EPBJ (R2= 0.850)*, **, ***, **** Significant at the 20, 10, 5, 1 percent level of significance, respectivelyFor the selected crops, SE model was recommended for prediction of the current hectareage on the basis of the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination ( R 2). For Paddy hectareage the main affecting factors viz., bajra hectareage, lagged hectareage of paddy, expected yield of maize and expected price of paddy. Expected yield and expected price of paddy were determining factors of bajra hectareage.