Random Forest Spatial Interpolation Techniques for Crop Yield Estimation at District Level

Abstract

General Crop Estimation Surveys (GCES) based on Crop Cutting Experiments (CCEs) are conducted for estimation of crop yield following random sampling approach for almost all major crops. About 13 lakh CCEs are conducted every year which has now increased rapidly due to the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) which is yield based insurance scheme. As suggested by Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoA&FW), this number needs to be reduced drastically by developing sampling procedures based on the use of advanced technologies and advanced survey techniques for crop yield estimation. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop crop yield estimation procedures using Random Forest Spatial Interpolation (RFSI) technique including the spatial variables like spatial distance and nearest neighbours as covariates. RFSI is one of the most adaptable and user-friendly interpolation techniques, as well as one of the fastest in large training datasets. Estimates of yield of wheat were obtained for all the six tehsils of Barabanki district using the estimator under stratified two stage sampling technique. The district level estimates were also obtained by pooling area under wheat crop in each tehsil along with the district level estimate of crop yield, estimate of variance, estimate of standard error (SE) and percentage SE (%SE) of these estimates were also computed in order to make comparison. The results of this study suggest that the estimates derived using RFSI are comparable to kriging and superior to inverse distance weighting (IDW) for the prediction of yield at unknown locations using distance and nearest neighbours.