Wpływ redukcji ceł na towary nierolne w rundzie Doha na handel zagraniczny Polski

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of a multilateral reduction of customs duties on non-agricultural goods, under a 'nonlinear Swiss formula', on Poland's foreign trade, including both exports and imports. The authors analyze the GTAP 6.0, according to four scenarios, which differ in terms of 'reduction coefficient A' under the Swiss formula. However, in all variants, the coefficient for developed countries is lower than that for developing countries. The analysis shows that the reduction of customs duties will have a limited impact on Poland's foreign trade. All scenarios point to a small increase in the volume of exports and an insignificant drop in the volume of imports, accompanied by a rise in import prices and a decline of export prices. The deterioration of the country's terms of trade is the most visible in the most radical scenario. The European Union as a whole would be more visibly affected than Poland by the planned reduction of customs duties. Similarly, the move would lead to limited changes in the overall volume of industrial production in Poland. Changes in the volume of trade, production and employment are the most visible in the radical scenario. In all options, the reduction of customs duties will have no perceptible influence on Poland's gross domestic product, though GDP in PPP terms will decrease as a result of deteriorated terms of trade. There will be a marginal deterioration in the overall level of prosperity in Polish society. This will be due to the fact that the drop in terms of trade will outweigh the increase of consumer surplus.