Abstract
The increase in the wind power predictability assumes a very important role for secure power system operation at minimum costs, especially in situations with severe changes in wind power production. In order to improve the forecast of such events, also known as “wind power ramp events”, the underlying role of some severe meteorological phenomena in triggering wind power ramps must be clearly understood. In this paper, windstorm and cyclone detection algorithms are implemented using historical reanalysis data allowing the identification of key characteristics (e.g., location, intensity and trajectories) of the events with the highest impact on the wind power ramp events in Portugal. The results show a strong association between cyclones/windstorms and wind power ramp events. Moreover, the results highlight that it is possible to use some features of these meteorological phenomena to detect, in an early stage, severe wind power ramps thus creating the possibility to develop operational decision tools in order to support the security of power systems with high amounts of wind power generation.
Highlights
The strong investment in renewable energy sources with a stochastic behavior, such as wind power, has brought new challenges to transmission system operators (TSOs) [1,2]
Both the frequency and the intensity of the events are reduced resulting, in many cases, in the intensification of the thermal low pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula [4]. These results indicate that for the Portuguese national aggregate production the following conditions apply: (i) seasonality has a high impact on wind power production; and (ii) the synoptic structures identified during the winter extend over large areas and have a characteristic signature
Since low pressure systems are not always accompanied by strong winds, these will not be accounted within the windstorm detection methodologies as they are not characterized by extreme events [11]
Summary
The strong investment in renewable energy sources with a stochastic behavior, such as wind power, has brought new challenges to transmission system operators (TSOs) [1,2]. Recent studies strive to understand these dynamics, for instance, [4] states that holistic methodologies capable of comprising the spatiotemporal evolution of atmospheric large-scale circulation are needed in order to enhance and complement the current forecasting techniques. These results are supported by other authors, who associate atmospheric phenomena (e.g., cold fronts and troughs) [4,8] as the critical weather situations for the TSO, namely to maintain the Energies 2017, 10, 1475; doi:10.3390/en10101475 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies.
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