Abstract
Electric vehicles (EVs) have been around for more than a hundred years. Nevertheless, their deployment has not been a sustainable success up until now. Many scientists, engineers and policymakers argue that EVs are a promising, maybe even indispensable option to achieve ambitious decarbonization goals, if powered by electricity from renewable energy sources. At the moment, the EVs market is gaining a lot of momentum and we may be near the point of no return for a sustained mass market deployment of electric vehicles. Many papers exist that describe future prospects of EVs. In our commentary we try to provide a bigger picture view and look at market and societal aspects. We analyze why previous generations of EVs were not successful and how current electric vehicles could become a sustainable success. We perform a semi-quantitative Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis and find that current electric vehicle designs are technologically on par with or better than conventional alternatives. Car buyers go electric when the economics make sense to them. We conclude that incentives are needed for electric vehicles until battery costs lower—as much as to allow EVs to become cheaper—from a total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective, than other alternatives. Other policy measures are needed to overcome remaining barriers, especially in supporting the setup and operation of publicly accessible recharging points to overcome range anxiety. EVs in isolation may not be the next mobility killer app. The real next mobility killer app may emerge as an autonomous shared EV in a world where the border between public and private transport will cease to exist. The findings of our commentary are relevant for scientists, policymakers and industry.
Highlights
120 years ago, when cars emerged on the road in larger numbers, electric vehicles (EVs) (With a focus on battery electric vehicles.) were among the leaders in the transition from horse-drawn carriages and other transport modes to cars
In the film "Who killed the electric car?" Chris Paine argues that newly launched EVs in the
An European Union (EU) carbon border tax could ensure a further reduction of emissions in the supply chain for EVs, including battery production
Summary
120 years ago, when cars emerged on the road in larger numbers, electric vehicles (EVs) (With a focus on battery electric vehicles.) were among the leaders in the transition from horse-drawn carriages and other transport modes to cars. While they were market leaders around 1900, their share soon declined and they were replaced by, at the time, a better alternative: internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). They are seen by many as a key enabler to reach the global long-term climate goals [3]. This may be relevant to many scientists, policymakers and decision-makers from industry working on EVs
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