End-of-Life Electric Vehicle Battery Stock Estimation in Ireland through Integrated Energy and Circular Economy Modelling

Abstract

• This study projects the EOL generation of EV batteries in Ireland out to 2050. • A material flow analysis is conducted for EOL estimation in which the EV market diffusion is modelled in different transport policy benchmarks. • The impact of the potential EOL value of EV batteries on EV market growth is explored. • A temporal estimation of the reusable capacity of EOL EV batteries is provided to target the fitting second-use applications. While electric vehicles bring numerous environmental benefits during their lifetime, they could be a burden for waste management at the end of life if not managed properly. A circular waste management system, alternatively, suggests exploring the appropriate actions and policies to create the right environment for second-use applications. Such regulatory measures primarily require a temporal estimation of the volume of the end-of-life electric vehicle batteries which helps to distinguish the suitable applications, time, and level of investment in the repurposing market. From an end-of-life flow perspective, the profile of the end-of-life battery stock follows the growth of the electric vehicle market over time and vehicles’ survival age. However, the level of uncertainties about the future trend of these vehicles and their efficiencies makes the end-of-life estimation highly challenging. This paper addresses these uncertainties in end-of-life battery stock estimation in Ireland by (i) modelling the electric vehicle market diffusion based on government policies and customers' preferences, and (ii) estimating electric vehicle lifetime based on a combination of current electric & conventional vehicles. Having the distribution of primary and end-of-life batteries over time, the impact of added value to electric vehicles due to the battery repurposing on their adoption in the first place is investigated. Results confirm the significant influence of government policies on the electric vehicle adoption profile. The temporal estimation of the reuse capacity of the end-of-life batteries indicates that how different levels of regulations and second-use support schemes end up to a different amount of reuse availability in end-of-life battery stock, ranging from several hundred to a few thousand megawatt-hours in 2050. Results also show that to what degree a potential second-use market for end-of-life electric vehicle batteries would increase the growth rate of electric vehicle uptake in Ireland.