Will China's urbanization support its carbon peak goal? – A forecast analysis based on the improved GCAM

Abstract

The urbanization process has an impact on greenhouse gas emissions, but little research has linked specific processes of urbanization to CO2 emissions. Particularly, for China, the urban–rural dual system and unique fertility policy play an important role in its urbanization process. A large population base and a sharp urban–rural divide need to be taken into account in CO2 emission forecast. Based on three urbanization processes corresponding to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, this article combined the Population-Development-Environment (PDE) model and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to forecast energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China in this century. The results show as follows. 1. China’s CO2 emissions and energy consumption will experience an inverted U-shaped trend. In the rapid, moderate and slow urbanization scenarios, CO2 emissions peak in 2045, 2035 and 2030 at 11.55 billion tons, 10.88 billion tons and 10.65 billion tons, respectively. 2. The peak time of energy consumption is generally later than that of CO2 emissions. In the rapid, moderate and slow urbanization scenarios, the primary energy consumption peaks at 212.03 EJ in 2055, 190.65 EJ in 2055 and 171.80 EJ in 2045, respectively; the final energy consumption peaks at 192.34 EJ in 2055, 174.47 EJ in 2055 and 157.25 EJ in 2045, respectively. 3. More rapid urbanization corresponds to a later peak in CO2 emissions and energy consumption, but the decline is faster after the peak. In the future, China should vigorously implement intensive and sustainable policies to avoid excessive emissions in the urbanization process.