Adjusting energy consumption structure to achieve China's CO2 emissions peak

Abstract

China has committed to the international community to achieve its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions peak around 2030. This article predicts CO2 emissions based on energy consumption to examine the conditions that would lead to achieving China's goal. In order to better understand the relationship between the two, a simple decomposition model decomposes energy consumption into its quantity and structure. Possible trajectories of CO2 emissions in China to the year 2050 depend on three scenario settings with differing total energy consumption and composition. The results indicate that CO2 emissions will not peak in the business-as-usual scenario. CO2 emissions will peak at 10.69 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2030 in the planned energy structure scenario. In the low-carbon energy structure scenario, the peak will occur in 2025 at the value of 10.37 Gt. Not only do slower energy consumption growth rates and the low carbon energy structure enable this peaking to occur earlier in time but also lower the peaking level. China's fossil energy consumption will also peak in 2030 and 2025 in the respective planned and low-carbon energy structure scenarios. The main policy implication is that China's commitment to a CO2 emissions peak is credible and feasible if they slow energy consumption and shift towards lower-carbon fuels.