Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's industrial sector

Abstract

China's industrial sector accounts for more than half of the country's final energy demand. Thus, controlling its energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is critical for achieving China's Paris Agreement target. We developed two scenarios for this sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2050 by inputting China's current macroeconomic, industrial de-capacity, energy efficiency, and policy requirements into a modified global change assessment model. Our quantitative analysis indicated that the industrial sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions growth will peak by 2025, subsequently declining. In the first reference scenario, peak energy consumption and CO2 emission values in 2025 will be 2.42 gigatons of coal equivalent (Gtce) and 4.43 gigatons of CO2 (GtCO2), respectively. In the second low-carbon scenario, these peak values in 2025 will be 2.28 Gtce and 4.13 GtCO2, respectively, that is, 5% and 7% lower than the respective values in the first scenario. After 2025, energy consumption and CO2 emissions will decrease gradually up to 2050. Measures required to achieve low-carbon peak targets include policies for adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure, promoting low-carbon energy, and capping energy and coal use, and CO2 emissions in this sector.