Abstract
Some Western pundits have embraced a “domino” logic to suggest that Kazakhstan might share the fate of Ukraine, with its Russian minority being used as the pretext for Russian intervention and irredentism. In this article I explore several reasons that invalidate this simplistic and mechanical parallel. Russia’s policy toward Kazakhstan aims at remaining the main political and cultural yardstick for the whole of Kazakhstani society, not merely the protector of Russian minorities. Perceived historical and demographic similarities between Kazakhstan and Ukraine are narrower than it seems at first glance. Defining a potential “Kazakh Novorossiya” is not an easy task, even for Russian nationalists. Moreover, current demographic and economic trends do not favor Kazakhstan’s Russian-majority regions, and local political activism and grievances have remained limited since Crimea’s annexation.
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