Where has all the rice gone in China? A farm-to-fork material flow analysis of rice supply chain with uncertainty analysis

Abstract

China, with rice as its most important staple food, plays a significant role in the global rice economy. However, China's rice supply and demand throughout the supply chain remains poorly understood due to data inconsistencies and gaps. Here, based on a mass-balance consistent system approach and a meta-analysis of various existing data sources, we identified the plausibility and mutual consistency of different sources for each stage of the rice supply chain and mapped the flows and stocks of rice from farm to fork in China in the past two decades. The results showed that production and trade data of paddy rice on the supply side are relatively consistent, while consumption, stock, and loss and waste data on the utilization side are often uncertain. The reconciled results after error propagation for the entire rice supply chain showed that the production of rice has increased from 134 Mt to 151 Mt, while the direct consumption of rice remained stable during the last two decades. The loss and waste of rice has also increased, accounting for 10%-11% of the total domestic rice production. These cross-checked and mass-balanced results help improve existing estimates and address data gaps and inconsistencies of rice supply and demand for mainland China. We call for more bottom-up and in-depth analysis on the rice utilization (especially feed use and out-of-home direct consumption) and stock, which could eventually better inform food security policy in China.