When Reports Depress Rather Than Inspire: A Field Experiment Using Age Cohorts as Reference Groups

Abstract

A large field experiment sent mail to randomly selected low–turnout propensity, young Latino voters in Colorado during the 2008 presidential election. One treatment reported that 90% of young Latinos intended to vote in the election. A second treatment added the fact that only 20% of young Latinos actually voted in 2006. A third treatment provided the additional fact that 40% of older Latinos voted in 2006. Compared to the control group, the treatment reporting low levels of prior turnout decreased participation in the 2008 election. This unintended consequence of the campaign provides evidence of the effectiveness of descriptive social norms for purposes of electoral mobilization.