When Did It Start? Origin of the Foresight Field

Abstract

While foresight continues to develop as a field, it is arguably still relatively unknown and underappreciated by potential clients and the public. Futurists are still explaining themselves and what they do on a regular basis. One challenge in explaining futures work is a lack of consensus around key questions about the field. While a variety of perspectives is valuable to futures work, for those new to it, the myriad answers to core questions—such as who futurists are, how futurists work, and how long have futurists been doing it—creates unnecessary confusion. While efforts have been made to address these questions, progress has been spotty. The field has been unable to settle on a name for itself that captures who futurists are. The recently proposed Foresight Competency Model is a step toward consensus on how futurists work. A key question that remains open is how long has formal futures work been done, that is, when did foresight begin as a field. An informal listserv discussion among professional futurists revealed a lack of consensus that was confirmed by a literature search. This piece took on the challenge of pinning down a specific year as the beginning of field—concluding that 1945 is the best candidate. The goal is to help futurists explain the field to those new to it.