Wheat productivity in the Mediterranean Ebro Valley: Analyzing the gap between attainable and potential yield with a simulation model

Abstract

Water deficit is an important constraint for wheat yield generation under Mediterranean environments. However, nitrogen (N) availability could limit yield in a more important way than poor water conditions. The aim of the work was to analyze, using the Ceres-Wheat crop simulation model, to what degree N fertilization constitutes a tool for reducing the gap between attainable and potential yield. Firstly, the model was calibrated and validated under a wide range of N and water conditions for the region of the Ebro Valley (NE Spain). Anthesis and maturity date were adequately predicted by the model. Predictions of yield tended to be quite accurate in general, though under severe water deficits precision was lower. We then assessed the gap between attainable and potential yield considering different N availabilities at sowing taking into account a weather database of 17 years for the location of Agramunt (NE Spain), representative of cereal growing conditions of the Mediterranean Catalonia. Potential yield ranged between 3.5 and 8.1 Mg ha −1. Variations in potential yield were explained by the duration of the period from sowing to anthesis and by the level of incident radiation during the period immediately previous to anthesis. Average attainable yield was 1.8 Mg ha −1 for N availability of 50 kg N ha −1; but increased to 2.8 Mg ha −1 for higher N availabilities (100–250 kg N ha −1). In the 25% of the worst years there was no effect of N availability on attainable yield. Increasing N availability beyond 100 kg N ha −1 generated a gain in yield only in 6% of the years. Variations between years in attainable yields were mainly explained by rainfall during the period from sowing to anthesis, whereas differences in attainable yield between N treatments increased with increases in rainfall. The gap between potential yield and attainable yield was higher in years with higher potential yield. On the other hand, the higher the attainable yield, the lower the gap. Thus, the proportion of the yield gap ascribed to N availability varied depending on the conditions of the growing season. In the high-yielding potential years, the main restriction for growth was water shortage, and fertilizing only slightly reduced the gap. Conversely, in rainy years characterized by low potential yields and mild water stresses, N management may constitute a simple tool for effectively reducing yield gap under rain-fed conditions.