Abstract

This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Orán, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weather variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure of water, temperature, and relative humidity) with and without time lags (1 to 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed with the set of meteorological variables from the first year of study with the variables in the time lags that best correlated with the oviposition. Model validation was conducted using the data from the second year of study (October 2006- 2007). Minimum temperature and rainfall were the most important variables. No eggs were found at temperatures below 10°C. The most significant time lags were 3 weeks for minimum temperature and rains, 3 weeks for water vapor pressure, and 6 weeks for maximum temperature. Aedes aegypti could be expected in Orán three weeks after rains with adequate min temperatures. The best-fit forecasting model for the combined meteorological variables explained 70 % of the variance (adj. R2). The correlation between Ae. aegypti oviposition observed and estimated by the forecasting model resulted in rs = 0.80 (P < 0.05). The forecasting model developed would allow prediction of increases and decreases in the Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on meteorological data for Orán city and, according to the meteorological variables, vector activity can be predicted three or four weeks in advance.

Highlights

  • Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti is well known as the main vector of dengue [1], widely distributed from tropical to subtropical areas of the world [2]

  • A total of 321,141 Aedes aegypti eggs were detected during the 106 consecutive weeks, including 109,253 in the first year and 211,888 in the second year

  • Aedes aegypti ovipositions were continuous during the first sampling year, but not for the second year

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Summary

Introduction

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti is well known as the main vector of dengue [1], widely distributed from tropical to subtropical areas of the world [2]. Dengue is a major public health concern throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world. It is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease [2], affecting populations of all ages and socio-economic levels, with an estimated 2.5 billion people living in countries at-risk, and 50 to 100 million cases per year. Dengue incidence has increased 30-fold in the Americas in the last 50 years, and between 2008–2012 more than 1.2 million cases of dengue were notified annually, including 28,233 severe cases and 1,000 deaths [7]. The burden of disease was the highest ever registered, with a total of 2.3 million cases, 37,898 severe cases and 1,318 deaths [8]

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