Water-Centric Nexus Approach for the Agriculture and Forest Sectors in Response to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula

Chul-Hee Lim

doi:10.3390/agronomy11081657

Abstract

Climate change has inherent multidisciplinary characteristics, and predicting the future of a single field of work has a limit. Therefore, this study proposes a water-centric nexus approach for the agriculture and forest sectors for improving the response to climate change in the Korean Peninsula. Two spatial models, i.e., Environmental Policy Integrated Climate and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs, were used to assess the extent of changes in agricultural water demand, forest water supply, and their balance at the watershed level in the current and future climatic conditions. Climate changed has increased the agricultural water demand and forest water supply significantly in all future scenarios and periods. Comparing the results with RCP8.5 2070s and the baseline, the agricultural water demand and forest water supply increased by 35% and 28%, respectively. Water balance assessment at the main watershed level in the Korean Peninsula revealed that although most scenarios of the future water supply increases offset the demand growth, a risk to water balance exists in case of a low forest ratio or smaller watershed. For instance, the western plains, which are the granary regions of South and North Korea, indicate a higher risk than other areas. These results show that the land-use balance can be an essential factor in a water-centric adaptation to climate change. Ultimately, the water-centric nexus approach can make synergies by overcoming increasing water demands attributable to climate change.

Highlights

Since the first climate change study by Callendar [1], various such studies have been conducted
The proposed water-centric nexus approach is attributed to the water–food–ecosystem nexus to respond to climate change [35,36]
The changes of forest water supply and agricultural water demand under baseline and future climate conditions were estimated through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST)-WY models, respectively

Summary

Introduction

Since the first climate change study by Callendar [1], various such studies have been conducted. The motivation for further climate change research has continued to evolve with the IPCC Assessment Reports, the adoption of the Paris Agreement, and the acceleration of climate change itself [2,3]. Climate change has inherent multidisciplinary characteristics, and the future predictions of a single field of study has limits [4,5]. Several types of nexus approach, such as water-food-energy, have emerged, and these multidirectional linkages contribute to the impact of climate change and set the direction of adaptation [6,7]. Research on climate change adaptation through an empirical nexus approach, such as the use of physical models, is continuously needed

Methods

Results

Conclusion