Employing an Artificial Neural Network Model to Predict Citrus Yield Based on Climate Factors

Abstract

Agricultural sustainability is dependent on the ability to predict crop yield, which is vital for farmers, consumers, and researchers. Most of the works used the amount of rainfall, average monthly temperature, relative humidity, etc. as inputs. In this paper, an attempt was made to predict the yield of the citrus crop (Washington Navel orange, Valencia orange, Murcott mandarin, Fremont mandarin, and Bearss Seedless lime) using weather factors and the accumulated heat units. These variables were used as input parameters in an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The necessary information was gathered during the growing seasons between 2010/2011 and 2021/2022 under Egyptian conditions. Weather factors were daily precipitation, yearly average air temperature, and yearly average of air relative humidity. A base air temperature of 13.0 °C was used to determine the accumulated heat units. The heat use efficiency (HUE) for cultivars was determined. The Bearss Seedless lime had the lowest HUE of 9.5 kg/ha °C day, while the Washington Navel orange had the highest HUE of 20.2 kg/ha °C day. The predictive performance of the ANN model with a structure of 9-20-1 with the backpropagation was evaluated using standard statistical measures. The actual and estimated yields from the ANN model were compared using a testing dataset, resulting in a value of RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of 2.80 t/ha, 2.58 t/ha, and 5.41%, respectively. The performance of the ANN model in the training phase was compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) models using values of R2; for MLR models for all cultivars, R2 ranged between 0.151 and 0.844, while the R2 value for the ANN was 0.87. Moreover, the ANN model gave the best performance criteria for evaluation of citrus yield prediction with a high R2, low root mean squared error, and low mean absolute error compared to the performance criteria of data mining algorithms such as K-nearest neighbor (KNN), KStar, and support vector regression. These encouraging outcomes show how the current ANN model can be used to estimate fruit yields, including citrus fruits and other types of fruit. The novelty of the proposed ANN model lies in the combination of weather parameters and accumulated heat units for accurate citrus yield prediction, specifically tailored for Egyptian regional citrus crops. Furthermore, especially in low- to middle-income countries such as Egypt, the findings of this study can greatly enhance the reliance on statistics when making decisions regarding agriculture and climate change. The citrus industry can benefit greatly from these discoveries, which can help with optimization, harvest planning, and postharvest logistics. We recommended furthering proving the robustness and generalization ability of the results in this study by adding more data points.