Wandering of Mass Reproduction of Harmful Insects Within the Natural Habitat

S.v Stankevych ,I V Nepran,С В Бондаренко ,L.v Golovan ,Victoria Martynenko ,Leora Kava ,R.v Yakovlev ,I P Lezhenina ,L Nemerytska ,H.v Baidyk ,V.i Dʹyakonov ,Дмитро Гавва ,K Novosad ,Vladyslav Mykhailenko ,M.o Filatov ,Іryna Кlymenko

doi:10.15421/2019_793

Abstract

The wandering of non-linear systems along the field of the possible development paths is one of the important characteristics of dynamic non-linear systems in synergetics. Insect populations are a complex of open biological systems with chaotic non-linear dynamics in space and time. Predicting their future development is not an easy task. Ignorance of the non-linear systems dynamics regularity is the cause of the repeated errors in predicting and, as a result, “sudden” appearances of “unexpected” and unpredictable mass reproductions of short-horned grasshoppers and locusts, winter moth, webworm beetle, sun pest and some other insect pests, the consequences of that are catastrophic for agriculture and forestry. In this article the authors analysed thoroughly the chronicles of the mass reproduction (wandering within the temporal and spatial limits of the natural habitat) of such species as short-horned grasshoppers and locusts, webworm beetle and sun pest. These pests have been known to mankind since time immemorial and they are extremely devastating.

Highlights

The wandering of non-linear systems along the field of the possible development paths is one of the important characteristics of dynamic non-linear systems in synergetics
This theoretical position of non-linear dynamics is important for the theory and practice of harmful insect population ecology, in the first turn it is necessary for establishing the migration of their mass reproduction primary breeding grounds as the prognostication of the aggravated regimes, predicting and making decisions in plant protection
It must be assumed that ignorance of these regularities of the non-linear systems dynamics was the cause of the repeated errors in predicting and “sudden” appearance of “unexpected” and unpredictable mass reproductions of short-horned grasshoppers and locusts, winter moth, webworm beetle, sun pest and some other insect pests

Summary

Introduction

The wandering of non-linear systems along the field of the possible development paths is one of the important characteristics of dynamic non-linear systems in synergetics. At the same time the non-linear system “non-rigidly” follows the “prescription” and makes a sort of wandering along the field of the possible development paths in accordance with the non-linear dynamics in the real nature of our random being (stochastism and determinism (Kniazeva, Kurdiumov, 2002) This theoretical position of non-linear dynamics is important for the theory and practice of harmful insect population ecology, in the first turn it is necessary for establishing the migration of their mass reproduction primary breeding grounds as the prognostication of the aggravated regimes (the beginning of mass reproduction in space), predicting and making decisions (management) in plant protection. It is obviously that such a pattern is characteristic for the vast majority of the insect pests, which mass reproduction is still impossible to predict for a long period of time due to the inaccuracy of the primary quantitative and qualitative data and their chaotic dynamics of numbers and non-linearity. Taking into account the complexity of the non-linear systems dynamics (in our case the insect populations) perhaps we should rely on the qualitative prognoses like: when we should expect the regular mass reproduction of one or another insect in the scope of this or that year

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