Vulnerability of Rice Production in Mekong River Delta under Impacts from Floods, Salinity and Climate Change

Abstract

This study sought to estimate the floods and salinity impact index and climate change vulnerability index for the rice farming provinces in Mekong River Delta. In both indexes, Tra Vinh province and the communes within it have the highest index value, followed by other coastal provinces. The estimation showed that the rice production in these areas are being threatened and will be worsen if there is no appropriate plan to cope with the changes in climate condition and extreme events. The results for the simulation model of paddy yield under different scenarios showed decreases in the paddy yield in Mekong River Delta. Specifically, the yield of Spring paddy decreases 6%, Autumn paddy decreases 2%, Winter paddy decreases 4% and Autumn-winter paddy decreases 4% in 2050. From these results, the climate change adaptation and mitigation policies in this delta is suggested to be focused reducing the exposure to sea level rise; upgrading the irrigation system for paddy planting since the coastal provinces have high rate of rain-fed paddy, vulnerability can also be reduced by enhancing the adaptive capacity of provinces through subsidizing and providing farmers with new paddy varieties which are more tolerant to salinity.