Vulnerability Assessment of Rice Farming Provinces to Climate Change in Mekong River Delta in Vietnam

Abstract

Mekong River Delta is one of the eight agricultural production regions ofVietnam and is also the largest rice producing region which contributes morethan 50% of the country’s rice production. However, the projected changes in climate are considered to cause adverse impacts on the rice production ofprovinces within the delta. This study assessed the vulnerability of rice farmingprovinces in Mekong River Delta to provide information for decision-makers todesign appropriate adaptation and mitigation plan for the delta. The result ofthe vulnerability index showed that Ca Mau and Tra Vinh are most vulnerableto climate change. The coastal provinces are more vulnerable than provinceslocated farther inland. The results for the simulation model of paddy yield underdifferent scenarios showed decreases in the paddy yield in Mekong River Delta.Specifically, the yield of Spring paddy decreases 6%, Autumn paddy decreases2%, Winter paddy decreases 4% and Autumn-winter paddy decreases 4% in2050. From these results, the climate change adaptation and mitigation policiesin this delta is suggested to be focused reducing the exposure to sea level rise;upgrading the irrigation system for paddy planting since the coastal provinceshave high rate of rain-fed paddy, vulnerability can also be reduced by enhancingthe adaptive capacity of provinces through subsidizing and providing farmerswith new paddy varieties which are more tolerant to salinity. Keywords - Climate change, quantitative vulnerability assessment, rice production,Mekong River Delta, Vietnam