Vulnerability of Communities to Climate Change Induced Disaster Risks and Potential Mental Health Outcomes in Isiolo County, Kenya

Abstract

Purpose: The study was conducted to identify and evaluate disaster risks and mental health outcomes caused by extreme climate events. Methodology: Quantitative data was obtained from existing climate and mental health (1984-2019) records, while qualitative data was obtained from literature review of case studies and content analysis, Focus Group Discussion and household survey in four major zones for two consecutive years. ArcGIS software method explored various properties of the climate systems to infer the distribution of climate parameters, select extremes value and calculate linear trend of time series. The quantitative data was analyzed using statistical tools in Excel, IBM SPSS version 20 while climate data analysis was done using R software (version 3.21). Results: The exceedance threshold of 𝜇 = 340 𝑚𝑚 was chosen. On the other hand, mean exceedance threshold of 𝜇 = 36.50𝐶 and 𝜇 = 11.380𝐶 for minimum and maximum temperatures respectively. The rainfall band was very high or very low, deemed to create disaster risks. The results revealed that the most common disaster risks include: drought and heatwaves, strong sand storms, flash floods and floods. The duration of time, frequency and unpredictable weather variability events were above critical threshold, hence categorized as high risk, rated 1, hence fatal. Unique Contribution to Theory and Practice: The study provides historical empirical data on hazard mapping and mental health outcomes to enable policy and programmes formulation by state and nonstate actors. The study recommends development of robust environmental health procedures to diagnose mental disorders, mapping of disasters; mental disorder epidemiology and make it user friendly to advice policy, scale up solutions and accelerate evidence informed advocacy on adaptation and resilience mental health programme strategies