Vulnerability assessment of forest landslide risk using GIS adaptation to climate change

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe goal of the present study was to provide basic data for establishing climate change adaptation measures and to support appropriate forest management in Jeollabuk-do, Republic of Korea. An assessment of forest vulnerability to landslide caused by localized torrential rainfall was conducted for Jeollabuk-do, taking into consideration the local climate characteristics and the regional characteristics of the forest. CCGIS, a climate change adaptation software toolkit based on GIS, was used to carry out the vulnerability assessment of each city and county of Jeollabuk-do. To improve the assessment, locally specific variable weights were prepared, based on the results of a Delphi investigation targeting public forestry staff in Jeollabuk-do. The regionally specific weight was greatest for the variable of climate exposure, followed by sensitivity and adaptability. According to the vulnerability assessment over the course of time, in most of the forest the vulnerability rating decreased from 2000s to 2020s, and later it decreased once again in all urban areas. The vulnerability of forests was predicted to be greatest in the 2050s. Hence, if the local government sets up an adaptation policy using this research data that assessed the landslide vulnerability of forest in Jeollabuk-do, Korea taking account of the characteristics of the local area, we consider that an effective policy can be established and forest management can incorporate measures to adapt to climate change.