Abstract
Inhabitants of low-lying islands face increased threats due to climate change as a result of their higher exposure and lesser adaptive capacity. Sagar Island, the largest inhabited estuarine island of Sundarbans, is experiencing severe coastal erosion, frequent cyclones, flooding, storm surges, and breaching of embankments, resulting in land, livelihood, and property loss, and the displacement of people at a huge scale. The present study assessed climate change-induced vulnerability and risk for Sagar Island, India, using an integrated geostatistical and geoinformatics-based approach. Based on the IPCC AR5 framework, the proportion of variance of 26 exposure, hazard, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity parameters was measured and analyzed. The results showed that 19.5% of mouzas (administrative units of the island), with 15.33% of the population at the southern part of the island, i.e., Sibpur–Dhablat, Bankimnagar–Sumatinagar, and Beguakhali–Mahismari, are at high risk (0.70–0.80). It has been concluded that the island has undergone tremendous land system transformations and changes in climatic patterns. Therefore, there is a need to formulate comprehensive adaptation strategies at the policy- and decision-making levels to help the communities of this island deal with the adverse impacts of climate change. The findings of this study will help adaptation strategies based on site-specific information and sustainable management for the marginalized populations living in similar islands worldwide.
Highlights
Climate change is a major concern that has increased the rapid and slow onset of climate events globally [1,2]
Coastal regions worldwide are under increasing threat from risk-associated climate change
To assess the spatial dimensions of risk and planning for its aversion, IPCC AR5 constitutes a methodology that takes into account the hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the inhabitants of vulnerable communities
Summary
Climate change is a major concern that has increased the rapid and slow onset of climate events globally [1,2]. Rising ocean and air temperatures, increasing occurrence and intensity of tidal surges, violent stormy cyclones, severe flooding, and extreme precipitation events are some of the manifestations of climate change [3]. The low-lying coastal regions are witnessing adverse impacts, such as inland flooding, submergence, and coastal erosion, due to rising sea levels [4]. By 2050, almost a million people living in three significant deltas, namely, the Mekong Delta, Nile delta, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, will be adversely impacted by rising sea levels [5]. For the Indian Bengal Delta, such an increase could be as high as 70% [6]. Climate variability greatly influences the environment and socioeconomic aspects, such as agriculture, livelihood, health, and biodiversity [7].
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