Climate vulnerability and economic determinants: Linkages and risk reduction in Sagar Island, India; A geospatial approach

Abstract

Climate vulnerability is the propensity to be adversely affected by climatic variability and natural hazards. People of low-lying islands face accelerating physical and non-physical stresses due to their greater exposure, higher sensitivity, and lower adaptive capacity towards climate change. Being home to over 0.2 million people, Sagar Island, the largest Island of Sundarban, is highly susceptible to coastal erosion, cyclonic storm surges, flooding, and embankment breaching, causing loss of land, property, and livelihood that eventually lead to displacements and induced migration. Over the past two decades, residents of this fragile sinking island of this world's largest mangrove forest have seen their homes engulfed, farmlands salinized and livelihood depleted by the rising sea. This study investigates the association between socio-economic vulnerabilities through the contextual indicators of land loss, productivity loss, loss of livelihood, and induced migration through regression modeling to find out linkages and scopes of risk reduction. The result reflects a significant positive correlation between land loss and loss of livelihood (p 0.0494*) that negatively correlates with the occurrence of in-migration (z −0.826), while the correlation between productivity loss and loss of livelihood is 0.6318. Mouzas like Dhablat, Shibpur, Beguakhali show outlier characteristics due to severe rates of erosion and embankment failure. The secondary data from the India Meteorological Department, National Centre for Ocean Information Services, have been used to identify considerable changes from cumulative erosion and accretion employing statistical and GIS techniques. This bottom-up assessment can contribute to disaster management and policy implications by identifying the particular intercession at the mouza level that increases the resilience of these vulnerable communities to climate change.