Voter Turnout in the 1986 Congressional Elections

Abstract

This article investigates whether certain contextual factors can have a demobilizing effect on voter turnout in congressional elections. Probit analysis of the full model of the voting decision reveals that the contextual factors of campaign expenditures and party contact are important determinants of voter turnout, in addition to the standard socioeconomic and social-psychological variables of age, education, and partisan intensity. These results also suggest that individuals who are disillusioned with both senate candidates are more likely to refrain from voting. The author concludes that the effect of campaign activities on voter turnout is often mixed; expensive media campaigns can deflate turnout and cancel out other, more mobilizing, contextual factors.