Value of Summer Season Precipitation Predictions in Decisions about Use of Precipitation Modification

Abstract

Abstract Results from a prior investigation of crop-yield shifts produced by simulated summer rain increases were coupled with summer rainfall forecasts to assess the possible economic outcomes of using forecasts to select the level of rain change for a summer. Simulated rain increases tested ranged from 10% to 40%. values not scientifically established as possible from midwestern cloud seeding, but chosen to provide a wide range of conceivable changes. The yields of corn and soybeans, under these different levels of simulated rain increases and grown under various growing season conditions experienced during a five-year agricultural plot experiment, varied considerably. To test the value of using a forecast, a summer rain forecast (above, below, or new average) made on 1 June and with an accuracy of 60%, was used as a guide to select the amount of rain change to use in each of the five test years. Then, the distribution of the financial gain from crop yields obtained was computed. The use of the forecast...