Weather and Management Impact on Crop Yield Variability in Rotations

Abstract

Crop rotation offers several advantages to improve farmers' systems worldwide. The positive attributes of rotations are usually dependent upon crop choices, cropping sequence, soil fertility management, and weather factors. Of these, weather is most uncontrollable, but its effects can be partially manipulated through management. This study presents information on how weather affected cropping systems in a 12-yr span. The study also illustrates the use of indices of weather (composite) variables to predict yields. The composite variables are three biological windows (BW) and a standardized precipitation index (SPI). Biological windows based on soil temperature and soil moisture indicate the number of days favorable for or detrimental to crop growth. Biological window 2 (temperature > 41°F+moist soil) in combination with May temperature explained more than 80% of the variability in corn (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) yields. August temperature negatively affected corn and soybean yields, especially in continuous monocrops. Preseason 9-mo SPI (September-May) explained up to 50% of the subsequent season's corn yields, and this information could influence crop choice. Overall, yields in rotations were higher than in continuous monocropping systems. Nitrogen fertilization increased cereal yields more in continuous monocropping than in rotations with legumes. Corn and soybean appeared more sensitive to soil moisture and temperature variability (P 0.05). Risk as measured by standard deviation in yields or incomes did not differ significantly among systems.