U.S.—North Korea Relations under the Obama Administration: Problems and Prospects

Abstract

IntroductionThe inauguration of President Obama in January 2009 aroused expectations in Pyongyang that the strained relationship between North Korea and the U.S. would improve under the new U.S. administration, for Obama had indicated during the 2008 presidential campaign his willingness to meet even with leaders of rogue nations, such as Kim Jong-Il of North Korea, if that was what it would take to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. However, contrary to North Korea's expectations, the bilateral relationship between the two countries not improved but deteriorated further, especially after North Korea's missile and nuclear tests in the spring of 2009.It is the purpose of this paper to examine U.S.-North Korean relations under the Obama administration from the time of the inauguration on January 20, 2009, to the present with emphasis on an analysis of the factors which have contributed to the deterioration of the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and North Korea. It is a major contention of this paper that, like his predecessors, President Obama is determined to bring about the denuclearization of North Korea and will not relax sanctions against Pyongyang so long as North Korea persists in its ambitious nuclear weapons program.The Obama Administration's Approach to North KoreaDuring the presidential campaign in 2008, Obama said that he would be willing to sit down with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il if it would help persuade the North to give up its nuclear weapons program.1 Apparently, such a statement aroused the expectations on the part of North Koreans that an Obama presidency would provide an opportunity for improved relations. Pyongyang seemed hopeful for an end to what it called the regime change policy of the Bush administration and anticipated better relations with United States.2 In an attempt to establish cordial relations with Washington, North Korea conveyed its wish to send a representative to the Obama inauguration. However, the Obama transition team turned the request down,3 a decision based on the fact that there were no official diplomatic ties between the two countries.Apparently, North Korea was not near the top of the Obama administration's foreign policy priorities. It was also not clear how much time or attention Obama's foreign policy team would pay to North Korea, given urgent problems in such locations as the Gaza Strip, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran.4 Meanwhile, signs of troubles for the Obama administration's North Korea policy began to surface on the eve of the new president's inauguration. According to Selig Harrison, who visited Pyongyang in mid-January 2009, North Koreans had very high hopes for Obama, but they want to confront him from a position of strength. North Korea made it clear that it had no intention of giving up nuclear weapons before normalizing relations with the U.S.5 Moreover, a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman declared on the eve of Obama's inauguration that our status as a nuclear weapons state will never flounder as long as the U.S. nuclear threat remains, even a bit. He went on to say that we can live without normalized relations [with the U.S.], but can't live without nuclear deterrence.6 Although President Obama emphasized his intention to depart from President George W. Bush's policy of unilateralism and shift toward multilateral cooperation, it become increasingly clear that, insofar as the U.S. policy toward North Korea is concerned, the bottom line is (in the words of The Daily Yomiuri) continuation rather than change on the nuclear issue.7 Like his predecessors, Obama firmly believes that the prevention of nuclear proliferation is vital, not only to the security of the U.S. but to the preservation of the existing international system. In fact, as Joseph Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund points out, Obama has the most detailed, comprehensive, and transformative nuclear policy agenda any candidate ever carried into the White House. …