Abstract

What is new?Key findings•Evidence syntheses are increasingly drawing on preprint servers as a source for emergent literature on COVID-19. Our research group, has conducted a large number of rapid reviews of a broad range of public health topics related to COVID-19. We outline several considerations when including preprints in rapid reviews and lessons learned from this process.What this adds to what is known?•Including preprints in rapid reviews has implications for the rapid review process and review teams should have clear protocol regarding the selection and coverage of bibliographic databases, indication within reviews where an included study is a preprint and prespecifying any sensitivity analysis (quantitative or narrative) to assess the impact of inclusion of preprints on the overall results and conclusions.•Specific challenges encountered in including preprints in rapid reviews such as those related to matching preprints to subsequent peer review publications and dealing with changes between preprints and peer review publications are presented using three exemplar review, and suggestions for study authors and review teams are provided. Key findings•Evidence syntheses are increasingly drawing on preprint servers as a source for emergent literature on COVID-19. Our research group, has conducted a large number of rapid reviews of a broad range of public health topics related to COVID-19. We outline several considerations when including preprints in rapid reviews and lessons learned from this process.What this adds to what is known?•Including preprints in rapid reviews has implications for the rapid review process and review teams should have clear protocol regarding the selection and coverage of bibliographic databases, indication within reviews where an included study is a preprint and prespecifying any sensitivity analysis (quantitative or narrative) to assess the impact of inclusion of preprints on the overall results and conclusions.•Specific challenges encountered in including preprints in rapid reviews such as those related to matching preprints to subsequent peer review publications and dealing with changes between preprints and peer review publications are presented using three exemplar review, and suggestions for study authors and review teams are provided. What is the implication and what should change now?•We suggest that preprint study authors include a statement in the final peer-reviewed version of the manuscript with the citation of the preprint version.•Rapid review teams should have a clear policy around whether they will or will not check peer review status of preprints included in a rapid review, and at what point in the review process this would occur. What is the implication and what should change now?•We suggest that preprint study authors include a statement in the final peer-reviewed version of the manuscript with the citation of the preprint version.•Rapid review teams should have a clear policy around whether they will or will not check peer review status of preprints included in a rapid review, and at what point in the review process this would occur. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has rapidly spread, causing millions of cases and deaths globally. Controlling the COVID-19 pandemic requires swift decision making based on initially sparse, and rapidly emerging evidence. There has been a proliferation of scientific literature in basic science, clinical medicine and public health disseminated through traditional peer review and increasingly, due to the urgent need for information, shared on preprint servers [[1]Homolak J. Kodvanj I. Virag D. Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 academic information patterns: a call for open science in the times of closed borders.Scientometrics. 2020; : 1-15PubMed Google Scholar,[2]Gianola S. Jesus T.S. Bargeri S. Castellini G. Characteristics of academic publications, preprints, and registered clinical trials on the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS One. 2020; 15e0240123Crossref PubMed Scopus (51) Google Scholar. Preprint servers are repositories of preliminary or advanced manuscripts that have not undergone formal peer review. Typically, preprint manuscripts precede those submitted to peer-reviewed journals, but they can also be published simultaneously [[3]Hoy M.B. Rise of the Rxivs: how preprint servers are changing the publishing process.Med Ref Serv Q. 2020; 39: 84-89Crossref PubMed Scopus (28) Google Scholar]. Editorial staff of preprint servers perform screening checks related to article scope, plagiarism, and compliance with legal or ethical standards [[4]Kirkham J.J. Penfold N. Murphy F. Boutron I. Ioannidis J.P. Polka J.K. Systematic examination of preprint platforms for use in the medical and biomedical sciences setting.BMJ Open. 2020; 10e041849Crossref PubMed Scopus (26) Google Scholar,[5]Malički M. Jerončić A. ter Riet G. Bouter L.M. Ioannidis J.P.A. Goodman S.N. Preprint servers’ policies, submission requirements, and transparency in reporting and research integrity recommendations.JAMA. 2020; 324: 1901-1903Crossref PubMed Scopus (21) Google Scholar. The majority of preprint servers provide a DOI for each manuscript [[4]Kirkham J.J. Penfold N. Murphy F. Boutron I. Ioannidis J.P. Polka J.K. Systematic examination of preprint platforms for use in the medical and biomedical sciences setting.BMJ Open. 2020; 10e041849Crossref PubMed Scopus (26) Google Scholar]. Manuscripts will remain on the servers and while up to a third will later be published in peer-reviewed journals (resulting in multiple versions of the same study [[6]Oikonomidi T. Boutron I. Pierre O. Cabanac G. Ravaud P. the C-NMAC. Changes in evidence for studies assessing interventions for COVID-19 reported in preprints: meta-research study.BMC Med. 2020; 18: 402Crossref PubMed Scopus (23) Google Scholar]), some may never be submitted for peer review or be accepted [6Oikonomidi T. Boutron I. Pierre O. Cabanac G. Ravaud P. the C-NMAC. Changes in evidence for studies assessing interventions for COVID-19 reported in preprints: meta-research study.BMC Med. 2020; 18: 402Crossref PubMed Scopus (23) Google Scholar, 7Abdill R.J. Blekhman R. Tracking the popularity and outcomes of all bioRxiv preprints.eLife. 2019; 8: e45133Crossref PubMed Scopus (77) Google Scholar, 8Serghiou S. Ioannidis J.P.A. Altmetric scores, citations, and publication of studies posted as preprints.JAMA. 2018; 319: 402-404Crossref PubMed Scopus (55) Google Scholar, 9Anderson K.R. bioRxiv: trends and analysis of five years of preprints.Learned Publish. 2020; 33: 104-109Crossref Scopus (16) Google Scholar]. The advantages of preprints include early and rapid dissemination, opportunities for informal commenting, potential decreased publication bias and greater recognition and visibility of work, particularly for early-career researchers [10Chiarelli A. Johnson R. Pinfield S. Richens E. Preprints and scholarly communication: adoption, practices, drivers and barriers.F1000Research. 2019; 8: 971PubMed Google Scholar, 11Sarabipour S. Debat H.J. Emmott E. Burgess S.J. Schwessinger B. Hensel Z. On the value of preprints: an early career researcher perspective.PLoS Biol. 2019; 17e3000151Crossref PubMed Scopus (71) Google Scholar, 12All that's fit to preprint.Nat Biotechnol. 2020; 38: 507Crossref PubMed Scopus (5) Google Scholar]. Evidence also suggests that peer-reviewed articles with a co-existing preprint are associated with more attention and citations than those without a preprint [[8]Serghiou S. Ioannidis J.P.A. Altmetric scores, citations, and publication of studies posted as preprints.JAMA. 2018; 319: 402-404Crossref PubMed Scopus (55) Google Scholar,[13]Fu D.Y. Hughey J.J. Releasing a preprint is associated with more attention and citations for the peer-reviewed article.eLife. 2019; 8: e52646Crossref PubMed Scopus (67) Google Scholar. The number of papers published on preprint servers has increased steadily since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the early stages of the pandemic (up to April 2020) the majority of preprint articles were published by authors from China and were modeling studies [[1]Homolak J. Kodvanj I. Virag D. Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 academic information patterns: a call for open science in the times of closed borders.Scientometrics. 2020; : 1-15PubMed Google Scholar,[14]Fidahic M. Nujic D. Runjic R. Civljak M. Markotic F. Lovric Makaric Z. et al.Research methodology and characteristics of journal articles with original data, preprint articles and registered clinical trial protocols about COVID-19.BMC Med Res Methodol. 2020; 20: 161Crossref PubMed Scopus (29) Google Scholar. When compared to non COVID-19 related preprints, COVID-19 related preprints are shorter, contain fewer references and have more variability in authorship team size, with single-authorship more common [[15]Fraser N., Brierley L., Dey G., Polka J.K., Pálfy M., Nanni F., Preprinting the COVID-19 pandemic. bioRxiv. 2020:2020.05.22.111294; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.22.111294Google Scholar]. While the rapid sharing of research findings may be invaluable, concerns have been raised about circulating preprint versions of articles before they have been through peer review quality assurance processes, particularly in disciplines like medicine, where flawed research could lead to risks to patient safety [[16]Leopold S.S. Haddad F.S. Sandell L.J. Swiontkowski M. Editorial: clinical orthopaedics and related research, The Bone & Joint Journal, The Journal of Orthopaedic Research, and The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery Will Not Accept Clinical Research Manuscripts Previously Posted to Preprint Servers.Clin Orthopaed Rel Res. 2019; 477: 1-4Crossref PubMed Scopus (13) Google Scholar]. While preprints may potentially decrease publication bias, they may also increase it through publication of small positive studies, they may influence media discourse, and a lack of awareness of the difference between preprints and published articles may lead to inaccurate preprints being shared as authoritative [[17]Sheldon T. The impact of preprint on media reporting of science.Lancet. 2018; 392 (London, England): 1194Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (5) Google Scholar,[18]Majumder M.S. Mandl K.D. Early in the epidemic: impact of preprints on global discourse about COVID-19 transmissibility.Lancet Global Health. 2020; 8: e627-e630Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (102) Google Scholar. Examples of this during the COVID-19 pandemic include two small linked preprints studies examining the association between smoking and COVID-19 gaining significant media attention, leading to claims that smoking is protective [[19]van Schalkwyk M.C.I. Hird T.R. Maani N. Petticrew M. Gilmore A.B. The perils of preprints.BMJ. 2020; 370: m3111Crossref PubMed Scopus (18) Google Scholar]. Another preprint suggesting similarities between COVID-19 and HIV caused significant online commentary and was subsequently withdrawn [[20]Kwon D. How swamped preprint servers are blocking bad coronavirus research.Nature. 2020; 581: 130-131Crossref PubMed Scopus (86) Google Scholar]. Despite their potential drawbacks, preprint servers are playing an increasing role in informing decision-making during the current pandemic due to the need for timely evidence [[21]Nabavi Nouri S. Cohen Y.A. Madhavan M.V. Slomka P.J. Iskandrian A.E. Einstein A.J. Preprint manuscripts and servers in the era of coronavirus disease 2019.J Eval Clin Pract. 2021; 27: 16-21https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.13498Crossref PubMed Scopus (11) Google Scholar]. Evidence syntheses are increasingly drawing on preprint servers as a source for emergent literature on COVID-19 [[21]Nabavi Nouri S. Cohen Y.A. Madhavan M.V. Slomka P.J. Iskandrian A.E. Einstein A.J. Preprint manuscripts and servers in the era of coronavirus disease 2019.J Eval Clin Pract. 2021; 27: 16-21https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.13498Crossref PubMed Scopus (11) Google Scholar]. Given the limitations of preprints, and concerns about the potential for harm in disciplines such as medicine, it is important to examine the feasibility of including preprints in rapid evidence reviews and explore their impact on review conclusions [[22]Tricco A.C. Garritty C.M. Boulos L. Lockwood C. Wilson M. McGowan J. Rapid review methods more challenging during COVID-19: commentary with a focus on 8 knowledge synthesis steps.J Clin Epidemiol. 2020; Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (50) Google Scholar]. Our research group, has conducted a series of rapid reviews of a broad range of public health topics related to COVID-19. These reviews arose directly from questions posed by policy makers and clinicians supporting Ireland's National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET). In keeping with rapid review methodology guidance [[22]Tricco A.C. Garritty C.M. Boulos L. Lockwood C. Wilson M. McGowan J. Rapid review methods more challenging during COVID-19: commentary with a focus on 8 knowledge synthesis steps.J Clin Epidemiol. 2020; Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (50) Google Scholar,[23]Garritty C. Gartlehner G. Kamel C. King V.J. Nussbaumer-Streit B. Stevens A. Interim guidance from the cochrane rapid reviews methods group.Cochr Rapid Rev. 2020; (2020)Google Scholar, standardized protocols were used [[24]Health Information and Quality Authority. Protocol for evidence synthesis support - COVID-19. https://www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2020-04/Protocol-for-evidence-synthesis-support_1-4-COVID-19.pdf: HIQA, 2020.Google Scholar]. Findings from these reviews have informed the national response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland [[25]HIQA publishes COVID-19 evidence summaries to support work of the National Public Health Emergency Team [press release]. https://www.hiqa.ie/hiqa-news-updates/hiqa-publishes-covid-19-evidence-summaries-support-work-national-public-health: HIQA, 1 April 2020.Google Scholar] and may also inform international health policy as well as clinical and public health guidance. In this article, we outline the impact of the inclusion of preprint manuscripts using three exemplar rapid reviews [26O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google Scholar, 27Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar, 28Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar]. We specifically describe issues we have encountered when including preprints in our rapid reviews, along with lessons learned, and suggestions for preprint study authors and review teams. To highlight the issues we encountered in including preprints in rapid reviews of SARS-CoV-2 topics, we selected three exemplar peer reviewed rapid reviews produced by our team that varied in scope and where ≥10% of included studies were preprints produced by our team. The reviews focused on viral load [[27]Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar], immunity [[26]O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google Scholar], and transmission [[28]Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar] (Table 1).Table 1Overview of exemplar rapid reviewsReviewOverviewWould removal of preprints change the findingsFindings unique to preprintsViral load [27]Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google ScholarObjectives:summarize the evidence on the detection pattern and viral load of SARS-CoV-2 over the course of an infectionIncluded studies: 113Preprints: 17/113 (15%)Conclusions: There is a relatively consistent trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 viral load over the course of COVID-19 from respiratory tract samples, however the duration of infectivity remains uncertain.Removal of the 17 preprint studies would not change the overall findings of the review.Two pre-prints that compared viral load and culture positivity between children and adults were the only studies that specifically examined the differences at that time. However, the findings were broadly consistent with what was implied from the included journal articles.Immunity [26]O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google ScholarObjectives:summarize the evidence on the immune response and reinfection rate following SARS-CoV-2 infection.Included studies: 102Preprints: 21/102 (20.6%)Conclusions: Limited early data suggest that most patients seroconvert for SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG within 2 weeks. While the long-term duration of antibody responses is unknown, evidence from SARS-CoV studies suggest SARS-CoV-specific IgG is sustained for 1-2 years and declines thereafter.Yes. Preprints provided the most recent data on SARS-CoV-2 and even SARS-CoV. Our findings that anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies can be detected beyond 60 days post-symptom onset comes from data exclusively derived from preprints. Additionally, IgG seropositivity follow-up beyond 10 years in SARS-CoV studies was also limited to one preprint study. This study detected IgG at 12 years.Preprints provided the longest follow-up and therefore contributed greatly to the maximum duration of detection of antibody responses. However, the findings relating to reinfection and seroconversion did not differ between preprint and journal articles.Transmission in Children(28)Objectives: rapid review of studies on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children.Included studies: 28Preprints: 7/28 (25%)Conclusions: From the studies identified, it appears that children are not, to date, substantially contributing to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. From six school-based studies it appears that transmission rates in this setting are currently low. Large scale studies of transmission chains using data collected from contact tracing and serological studies detecting past evidence of infection are required.Removal of the 7 preprint studies would not change the overall findings of the review.All 3 modeling studies were preprints. The findings of these studies were consistent with the overall findings, but they were the only papers to use this method.Abbreviations: IgG, Immunoglobulin G. Open table in a new tab Abbreviations: IgG, Immunoglobulin G. Preprints are published on preprint servers such as medRxiv and Research Square, with over 40 such servers having a biomedical or medical scope [[4]Kirkham J.J. Penfold N. Murphy F. Boutron I. Ioannidis J.P. Polka J.K. Systematic examination of preprint platforms for use in the medical and biomedical sciences setting.BMJ Open. 2020; 10e041849Crossref PubMed Scopus (26) Google Scholar]. Initially, we searched individual preprint servers to locate COVID-19 relevant articles for inclusion in our rapid reviews (including the exemplar reviews, Table 1), increasing the workload of the literature search. A number of search engines and databases such as Europe PMC and Dimensions have begun to index the full text of COVID-19 related preprints to make them searchable, alongside journal articles, reducing the complexity of literature searching. Inclusion of databases such as these in a search strategy simplifies the mechanisms of identification of preprints and facilitates greater efficiency. However, it is important to be cognizant that each database has different policies and coverage of preprint servers. Overall, across the three exemplar rapid reviews (Table 1), 243 studies were included, of which 45 (18.5%) were preprints at the time of writing of the review [26O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google Scholar, 27Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar, 28Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar]. The majority of included studies were observational designs, with case series accounting for 68% of included studies. When looked at by publication type, included studies were broadly similar, case series accounted for 60% of preprints and 70% of journal articles (Fig. 1). Modeling studies were less frequent overall, but consistent with trends of early COVID-19 publications, occurred more in the preprint group (9%) than the journal article group (0.5%) (Fig. 1) [[14]Fidahic M. Nujic D. Runjic R. Civljak M. Markotic F. Lovric Makaric Z. et al.Research methodology and characteristics of journal articles with original data, preprint articles and registered clinical trial protocols about COVID-19.BMC Med Res Methodol. 2020; 20: 161Crossref PubMed Scopus (29) Google Scholar]. It is important to distinguish between preprints and journal articles within a review, given the potential concerns about preprint quality. To help encourage transparency, we would suggest that researchers undertaking rapid reviews clearly indicate in the data extraction, written results and tables of included studies, where an included study is a preprint. As preprints are not formally peer reviewed, concerns regarding quality persist. Across our three rapid reviews [26O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google Scholar, 27Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar, 28Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar], the majority of included studies were case reports and case series (Fig. 1). No gold standard methodological quality appraisal tool for such studies exist, and until the recent publication of the GRADE Guidelines on the certainty of modeled evidence, there has also been a lack of guidance on appraising modeling studies[[29]Brozek J.L. Canelo-Aybar C. Akl E.A. Bowen J.M. Bucher J. Chiu W.A. GRADE guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence—An overview in the context of health decision-making.J Clin Epidemiol. 2021; 129: 138-150https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.09.018Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (31) Google Scholar]. To allow for rapid and consistent methodological quality appraisal across these case reports and case series, we adapted our own tool, based on existing guidance at the time (March 2020) and used well established tools for other designs (e.g., ROBINS-I tool for nonrandomized studies of interventions) [[24]Health Information and Quality Authority. Protocol for evidence synthesis support - COVID-19. https://www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2020-04/Protocol-for-evidence-synthesis-support_1-4-COVID-19.pdf: HIQA, 2020.Google Scholar]. Using the tool we adapted, there was very little difference observed in the methodological quality between journal articles and included preprints (Fig. 2), although no significance testing was conducted. Areas of poor methodological quality such as unclear criteria for case selection, nonconsecutive selection of case series participants, and lack of demographic characteristics were similar across preprint and journal articles. Comparing articles published in bioRxiv and in PubMed-indexed journals in 2016, Carneiro et al. [[30]Carneiro C.F.D. Queiroz V.G.S. Moulin T.C. Carvalho C.A.M. Haas C.B. Rayêe D. Comparing quality of reporting between preprints and peer-reviewed articles in the biomedical literature.Res Integr Peer Rev. 2020; 5: 16Crossref PubMed Google Scholar] reported that peer review had a statistically significant, but small impact on improving quality of reporting, suggesting that the quality of reporting in preprints did not differ greatly from their later peer-reviewed versions. In the context of COVID-19, the similarity in methodological quality between journal articles and the included preprints in our reviews [26O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google Scholar, 27Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar, 28Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar] could be partially explained by the overall poor methodological quality of the COVID-19 research evidence base – peer-reviewed or otherwise [[31]Dobler C. Poor quality research and clinical practice during COVID-19.Breathe. 2020; 162000112Crossref Scopus (10) Google Scholar]. Many COVID-19 peer-reviewed articles were published ahead-of-print and the submission-to-publication time for most journals reduced dramatically (median of 5 days) [[1]Homolak J. Kodvanj I. Virag D. Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 academic information patterns: a call for open science in the times of closed borders.Scientometrics. 2020; : 1-15PubMed Google Scholar]. It has been argued that this reduction is more likely to correlate with poor information quality than with peer-review efficiency [[1]Homolak J. Kodvanj I. Virag D. Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 academic information patterns: a call for open science in the times of closed borders.Scientometrics. 2020; : 1-15PubMed Google Scholar]. We therefore found no evidence to suggest that COVID-19 preprints should be considered less methodologically valid than COVID-19 peer-reviewed studies as both have limitations. In terms of the presentation and overall quality of the manuscripts we found that included preprints tended to have grammatical and numerical errors (e.g., differences in the main text and figures) which could lead to errors in interpretation. Image quality was also often poor and supplementary materials were often poorly described and labeled, or omitted, leading to difficulty interpreting information. Preprint servers offer authors the opportunity to amend errors and post new versions of a preprint. The majority of COVID-19 preprints have been found to have a single version, with some preprints existing beyond two versions [[6]Oikonomidi T. Boutron I. Pierre O. Cabanac G. Ravaud P. the C-NMAC. Changes in evidence for studies assessing interventions for COVID-19 reported in preprints: meta-research study.BMC Med. 2020; 18: 402Crossref PubMed Scopus (23) Google Scholar,[15]Fraser N., Brierley L., Dey G., Polka J.K., Pálfy M., Nanni F., Preprinting the COVID-19 pandemic. bioRxiv. 2020:2020.05.22.111294; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.22.111294Google Scholar. A single DOI may be retained for all versions [[4]Kirkham J.J. Penfold N. Murphy F. Boutron I. Ioannidis J.P. Polka J.K. Systematic examination of preprint platforms for use in the medical and biomedical sciences setting.BMJ Open. 2020; 10e041849Crossref PubMed Scopus (26) Google Scholar]. No standard for a new version requirement was identified, thus new versions may cover varying levels of change and substantial changes between preprint versions have been identified [[6]Oikonomidi T. Boutron I. Pierre O. Cabanac G. Ravaud P. the C-NMAC. Changes in evidence for studies assessing interventions for COVID-19 reported in preprints: meta-research study.BMC Med. 2020; 18: 402Crossref PubMed Scopus (23) Google Scholar]. We encountered cases where changes between versions were substantial, in one case with the addition of new participants (from 9 in version 1 to 76 in version 2 [[32]Iwasaki S., Fujisawa S., Nakakubo S., Kamada K., Yamashita Y., Fukumoto T., Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 detection in nasopharyngeal swab and saliva. medRxiv. 2020:2020.05.13.20100206; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20100206Google Scholar]). In order to increase transparency and openness, we would suggest that preprint authors include a version control log within their manuscript, highlighting whether the changes are more substantial than simply amending grammatical errors. Across the three included reviews [26O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google Scholar, 27Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar, 28Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar], meta-analysis was not feasible and narrative syntheses were conducted. As no meta-analyses were conducted, we cannot perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis around the impact of inclusion of preprints on the overall results. However, we were able to examine the consistency of the findings across reviews. In two of the reviews, the findings of included studies were largely consistent across the body of evidence and the removal of preprints would not have altered the overall review findings (Table 1) [[27]Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar,[28]Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar. In the review on immune responses, a rapidly evolving field, the removal of the preprints would have changed the overall findings of the review [[26]O Murchu E. Byrne P. Walsh K.A. Carty P.G. Connolly M. De Gascun C. Immune response following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses: a rapid review.Rev Med Virol. 2021; 21: e2162Google Scholar]. For this review, preprints provided the longest follow-up data and therefore contributed greatly to the maximum duration of detection of antibody responses; exclusion of these papers would have changed the overall conclusions regarding this duration. The other two reviews [[27]Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar,[28]Clyne B. Jordan K. Ahern S. Walsh K.A. Byrne P. Carty P.G. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children: a rapid review.Eurosurveillance. 2021; (In press)Google Scholar also included findings that were unique to included preprints, but these findings would not have changed the overall conclusions. For the viral load paper, two preprints compared viral load and culture positivity between children and adults and at the time of publication, these were the only papers that specifically examined differences between these groups. However, the findings were broadly consistent with what was implied from the other included journal articles [[27]Walsh K.A. Jordan K. Clyne B. Rohde D. Drummond L. Byrne P. SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection.J Infection. 2020; 81: 357-371Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (400) Google Scholar]. The transmission in children review included three modeling studies estimating age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, all of which were preprints. The findings of these studies were consistent with the overall findings of the review, however, they were the only papers to use this methodological approach. We suggest that authors conduct a sensitivity analysis (quantitatively or narratively) around the impact of inclusion of preprints on the overall results and conclusions. One of the main challenges of including preprints in our rapid reviews related to the subsequent identification of preprints that had undergone peer review and were published. Ordinarily, once a preprint has been accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal, the preprint server updates the entry with the final peer-reviewed citation and DOI, largely from title-based matching [[7]Abdill R.J. Blekhman R. Tracking the popularity and outcomes of all bioRxiv preprints.eLife. 2019; 8: e45133Crossref PubMed Scopus (77) Google Scholar]. However, we have noted significant delays in preprint platforms being updated. For example, an included preprint posted March 19, 2020 [[33]Cheng H.-Y., Jian S.-W., Liu D.-P., Ng T.-C., Huang W.-T., Lin H.-H., High transmissibility of COVID-19 near symptom onset. medRxiv. 2020:2020.03.18.20034561. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20034561Google Scholar], was published in a peer review journal May 1, 2020 [[34]Cheng H.-Y. Jian S.-W. Liu D.-P. Ng T.-C. Huang W.-T. Lin H.-H. Contact tracing assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Taiwan and risk at different exposure periods before and after symptom onset.JAMA Int Med. 2020; 180: 1156-1163Crossref PubMed Scopus (499) Google Scholar] but as of December 4, 2020, the preprint server had not been updated (likely due to the change in title). To overcome this, our process is to manually search bibliographic databases to determine if a preprint has been subsequently peer-reviewed and published. Databases such as Europe PMC have implemented links between the preprint and published version of the same piece of work however, this process is time consuming, depending on the number of included preprints and complicated by the fact that, in some cases, the study title or the list of authors may have changed. A larger issue of matching preprints to subsequent peer review publications occurs where sections of a preprint article are included in a peer review paper, however, the two articles are substantially different [[35]Xu x., Liu X., Wang L., ALI S.T., Du Z., Bosetti P., Household transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 in the time of unprecedented travel lockdown in China. medRxiv. 2020:2020.03.02.20029868; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20029868Google Scholar,[36]Xu X.-K. Liu X.F. Wu Y. ST A.l.i. Du Z. Bosetti P. Reconstruction of transmission pairs for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mainland China: estimation of superspreading events, serial interval, and hazard of infection.Clin Infect Dis. 2020; 71: 3163-3167https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa790Crossref PubMed Scopus (58) Google Scholar. Without contacting the authors, there is no clear way to determine if the two similar papers are actually the preprint and final peer-reviewed version. We suggest that researchers undertaking rapid reviews who are including preprints, have a clear policy around whether they will or will not check peer review status of included preprints, and at what point in the review process this would occur. In order to increase transparency, we would also suggest that study authors include a statement in the final peer-reviewed version of the manuscript with the citation of the preprint version. As preprint articles have not undergone peer review, it is possible that there will be substantial changes to the final peer-reviewed version [[6]Oikonomidi T. Boutron I. Pierre O. Cabanac G. Ravaud P. the C-NMAC. Changes in evidence for studies assessing interventions for COVID-19 reported in preprints: meta-research study.BMC Med. 2020; 18: 402Crossref PubMed Scopus (23) Google Scholar]. Where no peer-reviewed version of an included preprint were identified, we clearly stated within the review which articles were preprints at the time of writing. Where we identified a peer-reviewed version of an included preprint subsequent to our search, we reviewed that version for any changes to data and interpretation. In the viral load review, we identified an increase in included study participants from 1,043 [[33]Cheng H.-Y., Jian S.-W., Liu D.-P., Ng T.-C., Huang W.-T., Lin H.-H., High transmissibility of COVID-19 near symptom onset. medRxiv. 2020:2020.03.18.20034561. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20034561Google Scholar] in the preprint to 2,761 [[34]Cheng H.-Y. Jian S.-W. Liu D.-P. Ng T.-C. Huang W.-T. Lin H.-H. Contact tracing assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Taiwan and risk at different exposure periods before and after symptom onset.JAMA Int Med. 2020; 180: 1156-1163Crossref PubMed Scopus (499) Google Scholar] in the peer-reviewed version. In the transmission in children review, we identified a large increase in included study participants from 288 [[37]Laxminarayan R., Wahl B., Dudala S.R., Gopal K., Mohan C., Neelima S., Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states. medRxiv. 2020:2020.07.14.20153643; ; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.14.20153643Google Scholar] in the preprint to 42,618 [[38]Laxminarayan R. Wahl B. Dudala S.R. Gopal K. Mohan B.C. Neelima S. Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states.Science. 2020; 370: 691-697Crossref PubMed Scopus (226) Google Scholar] in the peer-reviewed version. Despite the significant increase in participants and changes to data, the overall conclusions remained similar in both cases. The process of cross-checking between the data extraction performed using the preprint and to the subsequent peer-reviewed manuscript is time consuming, but necessary as even subtle changes could lead to changes in the overall conclusions of the study and the evidence base of a rapid review. As such, we suggest that teams including preprints in their reviews, factor in adequate time and resources in their protocols for any necessary review updates, particularly for data extraction tables, arising from differences between included preprints and subsequently identified peer-reviewed versions. Alternatively, if review teams do not plan to cross-check for published peer-reviewed versions, they should explicitly state this. Furthermore, we suggest that authors include a statement in the final peer-reviewed version of any substantial changes to the data or interpretation from the preprint version. Suggestions for study authors and review teams from our experience to date are summarized in Table 2.Table 2Suggestions for including preprints in rapid reviewsDomainSuggestions for including preprintsStudy identificationFor rapid review teams:•Review bibliographic databases policies and coverage regarding preprints.Study inclusionFor rapid review teams:•Rapid review teams should clearly indicate within their reviews, in the data extraction, written results and table of included studies, where an included study is a preprint.Reporting qualityFor rapid review teams:•We found no evidence to suggest that COVID-19 preprints should be considered less methodologically valid than COVID-19 peer-reviewed studies.•Preprint manuscripts may have grammatical and numerical errors and rapid review teams should have a clear protocol in place for dealing with errors such as contradictory results between tables and text.For study authors:•COVID-19 preprints, while a work in progress, should be double checked by the author team for inconsistencies in the reporting of data between tables/figures and text prior to depositing on a preprint server.•Authors should include a version control log within the manuscript, highlighting changes between versions.•Authors should use an appropriate standardised reporting checklist.Synthesis and interpretation of findingsFor rapid review teams:•Rapid review teams should conduct a sensitivity analysis (quantitatively or narratively) to assess the impact of inclusion of preprints on the overall results and conclusions.Matching preprints to subsequent peer review publicationsFor rapid review teams:•Rapid review teams should have a clear policy around whether they will or will not check peer review status of preprints included in a rapid review, and at what point in the review process this would occur.For study authors:•We suggest that study authors include a statement in the final peer-reviewed version of the manuscript with the citation of the preprint version.Changes between preprints and peer review publicationsFor rapid review teams:•Rapid review teams should factor in adequate time and resources in their protocols for any necessary review updates arising from differences between preprints and peer-reviewed manuscripts.•If review teams do not plan to cross-check for published peer-reviewed versions, they should explicitly state this.For study authors:•Authors should include a statement in the final peer-reviewed version of any substantial changes to the data or interpretation from the preprint version. Open table in a new tab Managing the COVID-19 pandemic requires decision making based on the best available evidence, and preprints have formed a substantial part of the available evidence. Evidence from preprints must be used appropriately, recognizing the initial intent of preprints as a mechanism to share preliminary or advanced manuscripts prior to peer review. We specifically outlined issues we encountered relating to including COVID-19 preprints in our rapid review process, along with lessons learned and suggestions for preprint study authors and review teams. We found that the quality of reporting in COVID-19 related preprints did not greatly differ from COVID-19 peer-reviewed studies and while the body of evidence was largely consistent across study type, some review findings were unique to the included preprints. Exclusion of preprints would have changed the conclusions for one of the three exemplar reviews. The value of including preprints with faster access to emerging evidence must be offset against their limitations, and the time and resources required to appraise, conduct sensitivity analysis and monitor changes from preprint status to peer-reviewed publication.

Highlights

  • SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has rapidly spread, causing millions of cases and deaths globally

  • Rapid review teams should have a clear policy around whether they will or will not check peer review status of preprints included in a rapid review, and at what point in the review process this would occur

  • To highlight the issues we encountered in including preprints in rapid reviews of SARS-CoV-2 topics, we selected three exemplar peer reviewed rapid reviews produced by our team that varied in scope and where ≥10% of included studies were preprints produced by our team

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Summary

Introduction

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has rapidly spread, causing millions of cases and deaths globally. While preprints may potentially decrease publication bias, they may increase it through publication of small positive studies, they may influence media discourse, and a lack of awareness of the difference between preprints and published articles may lead to inaccurate preprints being shared as authoritative [17,18] Examples of this during the COVID-19 pandemic include two small linked preprints studies examining the association between smoking and COVID-19 gaining significant media attention, leading to claims that smoking is protective [19]. Another preprint suggesting similarities between COVID-19 and HIV caused significant online commentary and was subsequently withdrawn [20] Despite their potential drawbacks, preprint servers are playing an increasing role in informing decision-making during the current pandemic due to the need for timely evidence [21]. We describe issues we have encountered when including preprints in our rapid reviews, along with lessons learned, and suggestions for preprint study authors and review teams

Exemplar reviews
Study identification
Study inclusion
Findings unique to preprints
Study reporting quality
Synthesis and interpretation of findings
Matching preprints to subsequent peer review publications
Changes between preprints and peer review publications
Conclusions
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