Use of predictive modelling in recent work of the Panel on Biological Hazards of the European Food Safety Authority

Abstract

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) provides independent scientific advice to the EU risk managers in relation to legislation and policies in all fields which have a direct or indirect impact on food and feed safety. The EFSA Scientific Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ Panel) provides independent scientific advice on biological hazards in relation to food safety and food-borne diseases. This paper aims to give an overview of the recent EFSA BIOHAZ Panel activities that used predictive microbiology. In four scientific outputs (three opinions and one report), bacterial growth during storage of meat and pre-packed fishery products was predicted using available predictive microbiology models and software. In another scientific opinion, a predictive model for thermal destruction of viruses was developed and further used to evaluate heat treatments that could be applied to live bivalve molluscs to eliminate pathogenic microorganisms. It is concluded that predictive microbiology has great value in risk assessment and in risk-based food safety management.