Urban Sustainability: Spatial distribution and ecological niche modelling of Brachytrupes membranaceus under climatic incidence in Kinshasa, DR. Congo

Abstract

Species distribution modeling has become a very popular tool for anticipation and decision-making in biological resource conservation. This study aims to assess changes in the future distribution of Brachytrupes membranaceus habitats in Kinshasa between 2055 and 2100.\nThree variables contributed most to the model: rainfall in the driest month (38.4%), soil (28.9%) and rainfall in the coldest quarter (13.9%). Currently, 89.3% of Kinshasa\'s surface area is highly favorable to the development and conservation of B. membranaceus, compared with 69.5% and 47.5% in 2055 (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively) and 61.5% and 39.2% in 2100 (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively), mainly in the urban zone. From the current to the future climate, the areas potentially favorable to the development and conservation of B. membranaceus shift from the periphery to the urban center of Kinshasa (for all scenarios for the years 2055 and 2100).\nThis shows that threats to the development and conservation of B. membranaceus are mainly due to anthropogenic activities (anarchic construction and slash-and-burn agriculture) and less to climatic/environmental factors (rainfall and soil). These results contribute to Sustainable Development Goals 11 and 15 by 2030.