Abstract
Climatic variability is one of the main constraints of agriculture in Mali, which will certainly affect long-term sorghum yields. The objective of the present study was to assess the effect of climate variability on sorghum production areas by 2050 in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali considering three climate scenarios: current scenarios (RCP 2.5), optimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5). Therefore, 11,010 occurrence points of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) were collected and associated with the environmental variables of the three climatic scenarios according to the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Sorghum environmental data and points of occurrence were obtained from AfriClim and GBIF databases, respectively. The correlations carried out and the Jackknife test allowed us to identify variables that contributed more to the performance of the model. Overall, in the Sudanian zone, the suitable area for sorghum production which currently represents 37% of the area of the district of Koulikoro will increase up to 51% by 2050 considering the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5). Furthermore, considering the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the suitable zones for sorghum production will experience a decrease of 10%. In the Sahelian zone, the suitable zones for sorghum production that represent 55% of San district area considering the RCP 2.5 scenario will experience a decline of 24% by 2050 considering both the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It is suggested to carry out investigations on potential sorghum yield prediction in both study areas in order to identify suitable production areas of the crop in the near future (2050) and long term (2100) as adaptation strategies and resilience of farmers to climate change.
Highlights
Climate change is likely to affect the profitability of cropping systems in the future in most of the developing countries in general and Mali in particular (Talacuece et al, 2016)
The objective of the present study was to assess the effect of climate variability on sorghum production areas by 2050 in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali considering three climate scenarios: current scenarios (RCP 2.5), optimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5)
11,010 occurrence points of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) were collected and associated with the environmental variables of the three climatic scenarios according to the maximum entropy approach (Maxent)
Summary
Climate change is likely to affect the profitability of cropping systems in the future in most of the developing countries in general and Mali in particular (Talacuece et al, 2016). In these areas, crop yields are highly dependent on the weather parameters especially temperature and rainfall (Talacuece et al, 2016). Climate change could affect the distribution and the extinction in the century of many plant species (Giam et al, 2010) Nowadays, it is one of the main threats to plant biodiversity and to a lesser extent animal biodiversity (IPCC, 2013). Sorghum is hardly exempt from this situation; it is one of the most cultivated cereals in the world due to its strong involvement in human and animal nutrition
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