Unveiling risk factors influencing the selection of the Northern Sea Route: A conjoint analysis approach for Japanese shippers

Abstract

This paper explores how Japanese corporations assess risks associated with using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a new maritime transport route in Asia and identifies measures to promote its usage. We address two key questions: (1) What risks influence shippers' route choices in maritime transport? (2) Does risk evaluation vary by cargo type and company size? Using choice-based conjoint analysis and a conditional logit model with online survey data, we identified five main risk factors influencing shippers: route unavailability rate, delay probability, piracy probability, transport costs, and war conditions, ranked in importance from highest to lowest as war conditions, delay probability, transport costs, route unavailability rate, and piracy probability. Additionally, the risk factors significantly influencing route selection were found to be robust, showing minimal variation across company size, type of trade (import/export), and the nature of the goods transported. Our findings suggest several policy implications. Diplomatic efforts are crucial for safe vessel navigation on the NSR. Government initiatives should focus on reducing transport delays through technology investments and implementing strategies to decrease NSR delay rates without increasing shippers' costs. Additionally, emphasizing the lower piracy risks on the NSR compared to Suez Canal Route could boost its attractiveness.